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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Sept 1, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue.

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Summary:
Major Ukrainian offensive on Kherson bridgehead
Day 4 of the offensive.
Ukrainian advances slowed down significantly due to fierce resistance by Russian airborne units.

Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Donetsk West: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead:
Ukrainian troops liberated village Schaslyve south of Kostromka

1. Kharkiv: No changes.

2. Izyum bridgehead: No changes.

3. North Donbass: No changes.

4. West of Donetsk: No changes.

5. Vugledar - Velyka Novosilka, Gulyapole: No changes.

6. Kherson bridgehead:
Kherson bridgehead is extremely poorly executed, but there are other powerful sources on Ukrainian side that allow it to happen - specifically those HIMARS rocket systems.

Ukrainian troops continue attacking the bridges to to keep the supply lines as as severe as possible, so they not only attacking the bridges, they’re attacking pontoon bridges, ferris everything they can.

They can reach the attacks continue non-stop so far we’re pretty sure that this is definitely creating problems for the Russian command and Russian troops and Kherson Bridgehead in terms of being able to resupply.

The major reason Ukrainian troops are able to launch this counter offensive is that HIMARS system destroyed the bridges and to a significant degree the resupply of Russian troops in terms of ammunition, and even in terms of reserves free of fresh replacements that’s all almost impossible at this point.

The other significant development is that we actually didn’t discuss, but it was happening past like about 10 days is that Ukrainian Air Force received anti-radar rockets from US and UK called HARM rockets.

They destroyed a lot of Russian radars and anti-air systems which cleared up skies over the Kherson Bridgehead for Ukrainian Air Force - not to the extent that Ukraine Air Forces can do whatever they want, but now we see that directors UAVs are back up in the air

We discussed this in the past that they are pretty weak in terms of they could be easily picked up by an anti-air systems, so now they operating actively on Russian troops which means that those anti-air systems and radars, for the most part, were destroyed, and there is no effective anti-air defense over the Kherson Bridgehead at this point, so the tactic of Ukrainian troops has changed.

They were forced to slow down in frontal attacks that lead to heavy losses, so the way it works right now it looks like this is at least our best assessment, best educated guess is that now they’re using Bayraktar TB2s to pick up a Russian artillery - like individual pieces the most dangerous 152mm ones, destroy them, and then Ukrainian infantry and armor moves forward.

They use Bayraktars to clear up the most dangerous obstacles, and then they try to continue moving so this relatively new tactic, relative to the first days, where it’s more like frontal just like frontal push and desire to just gain ground and achieve objectives at all costs, and the offensive has not fizzled out based on what we’re seeing.

It just changed a little bit the tactics on the ground as we discussed about with the Bayraktars. That really means it’s gonna take longer, slower; the writing is on the wall for the Russian troops here on Kherson Bridgehead, given that Ukrainian troops don’t have skills, don’t have proper middle level and upper level commanders, it’s extremely hard for them to execute any offensive in the first place.

We can see that it’s extremely poorly executed maneuver, still they managed to still push through mostly based the soldier’s morale and their desire to move forward, to achieve objectives.

The same is true for the Russian side; the Russian troops are holding on only thanks to those Airborne units and Special Forces Brigade (sfB) which based on their motivation, because they don’t have overwhelming Russian artillery support or even air support.

It’s kind of like turning into a more even fight - where it’s more infantry versus infantry and tanks and all of that typical more what the people think about the war and this remains to be seen how it’s all gonna play out because the Russian troops here gonna get worked out because we’re talking about you know 3 regiments of 7th Airborne Division (AD) and two regiments of 98th AD and the small sfB, which is really small - it’s at this point probably less than a 1,000 soldiers probably more like 500-700.

Eventually this will crack; it looks like Ukrainian command has the firepower to keep the pressure and there is no reason to stop the pressure because it’s also obvious on the Ukrainian side, that Russian troops are trapped here - you just need to keep the pressure to cook the frog.

On the far western most section:
There is actually nothing nothing really new, no changes straight between Mykolaiv and Kherson.

The situation here is totally stabilized nothing really new to update or report. Local fighting, but not no real movements. The most promising part and as we discussed before is in the center south of Davydiv Brid in between Verivka.

The northern situation is somewhat promising, but it’s more tying up of the 98th AD and the 45th sfB; they they cannot come south and help out stemming this advance which is the most promising at this point. The point here is Ukrainians are putting pressure on this most western section to keep the 7th AD engaged here, so it doesn’t go back, and doesn’t stop this advance.

Based on our information the only stopping force is the 217th R / 968thAD that’s because the 205th B, 126th B are conditionally capable of any significant defensive actions. They really in two extent we can call them as a write-off, but so this is what’s stopping so far Ukrainian defenses.

The initial move was towards this village to Sukhistawak which was captured by Ukrainian troops managed to get into Perskinskia. Then moved south.

However, they were counter-attacked by Russian airborne units, and they were squeezed out of Perskinskia so they straight the right outside of this village on the western outskirts of it then they decided to to pivot kind of towards south which is actually anyways where they need to go so.

They captured this village because there were no Russian troops here because 98thAD is kind of like up north so this 217th Regimen probably came from north.

They managed to keep the road from the Davydiv Brid to Beraslav under control, I mean it’s technically under control, but it’s not usable because Ukrainian troops are there. They have fire control over the road, but no less they stamped the advances of Ukrainian troops towards east; the whole point was to capture this road and start moving along T-2207 towards Beraslav which also means Nova Kahovka.

What Ukrainian troops did then they kind of pivoted it again from Castronka to Schustler and started moving south. They captured a village and that was achievement for today, not really much, giving the whole situation. The whole offensive has slowed down significantly because of the losses.

Apparently Ukrainian command trying to minimize the losses; they’re trying to pick up those Russian artillery pieces that are creating problems for Ukrainian advances with the help of Bayraktars.

Russian troops put some screening troops here, we don’t know what unit it is, probably also 217th R/98th AD, we would assume, but we don’t have confirmation.

We don’t know what’s going on here, if this was cleared out, this whole peninsular controlled by Russian troops, because it’s screening.

I would say 3rd-rated troops from the next region; those forced conscript have provisional military value, so we would assume that they evacuated, but we don’t have confirmation.

We also seen information that Ukrainian troops tried to do frontal attack here in Davydiv Brid which failed. That’ a little bit surprising information, but right now Ukrainian troops are trying to find the path of least resistance.

It was the main direction is kind of like going into the SE along this road that you can that you see here at T-2207 because this is the road to Nova Kahovka. This is the end goal here.

In the north the initial moves here are the most dangerous situation that Ukrainian troops managed to penetrate Russian defenses here; they were not successful. On the next day, Ukrainian troops managed to capture a village and increase their bridgehead.

Some kind of water channel here, and semi-circle the 45th sfB; this situation is unclear.

Looks like Russian troops managed to escape and lose both villages, but then in other reports, they say that they counter-attacked and managed to kind of create firm corridor to these two villages. The situation here is somewhat unclear at this point; what is clear is that the troops still holding on to a nearby village which makes it problematic to hold on to both villages.

In the long run, but the bigger picture of all of this, is this is holding, the 331st R of 98th AD and 45th sfB so they cannot go south, and they cannot stop Ukrainian troops that are slowly advancing.