Maybe. It’s been my experience that when everyone is sure something will happen, it usually doesn’t.
Yeah sometimes the crowd can be wrong. Many were sure Biden couldn't possibly stand up and debate Trump for two hours in the last election. Then they said he couldn't last a year in the Presidency and yet he is still there. So you may have a point.
Biden will run or he won't. Depends on which time possibility prevails. I love the one where both Biden and Trump run and Trump pounds Biden into oblivion.