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This writer is evaluating from a behavioral science perspective. He points out “I notice that the Russian invaders have become entirely reactive - they no longer dictate where the fighting should occur and when.” He then points out the recent moves preparitory to retaking Kherson as examples. Thus it appears that Russia is loosing.

I agree. The most recent attacks on Russian military resources in Crimea have certainly been a nasty surprise. US oil (WTI) has dropped from $120 to under $90 a barrel in about 2 months, and is on a steady downward trend. Russian oil costs from $50 to $60 a barrel to produce. At the rate US oil is dropping it should hit $60 in another 2 months. China is suffering severe drought conditions and other economic worries. With Europe filling up on LNG, it looks like Russia’s main income source is scrued. With many large and small US and other foreign countries leaving Russia, huge numbers of people are now unemployed, and large numbers of landlords no longer have income from the departed businesses, and soon not from the many unemployed as well. With lack of quality computer chips and ball bearings, industry both military and civilian is hurting. With winters a lot colder in Russia than in Europe, loss of sons to war, and large number of frightened Crimean resiidents fleeing to Russian mainland, how much longer will it be before the socio/political scene in Russia becomes really troublesome for Putin. Soon it should be impossible for him to ignore he has LOST.