Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 15, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
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Extras:
Ukraine Gets First M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems
The M270 in Ukrainian hands is bad news for the Russians who are already suffering from HIMARS attacks.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-gets-first-m270-multiple-launch-rocket-systems
Excerpts:
The M270 features a launch system mounted on a tracked chassis derived from the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. A single M270 can be loaded with two of the standard ammunition pods at a time, allowing it to fire up to 12 rockets or two ATACMS missiles before needing to be reloaded.
The HIMARS, on the other hand, features a smaller launch system, which can only hold one ammunition pod at a time. It is mounted on a 6x6 Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) truck chassis. For what the M142 gives up in firepower it makes up in transportability and on-road mobility. It can even be rapidly deployed via a C-130.
The maximum range of either of these systems is dependent on what type of munition they are firing. The longest-range artillery rockets currently available for the system are the M30 (submunition warhead) and M31 (unitary warhead) precision-guided types, which are GPS/INS guided and can hit targets out to around 43 miles (70 kilometers). The far larger ATACMS missiles can engage threats out to 186 miles (300 kilometers).
Plan To Train Ukrainian Pilots On U.S. Jets Passed By House of Representatives
After months of campaigning for new equipment, Ukrainian Air Force pilots could be poised to start training on U.S.-made fighter jets.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/plan-to-train-ukrainian-pilots-on-u-s-jets-passed-by-house-of-representatives
Excerpts:
... should the amendment become law, that could open the way for Ukrainian Air Force pilots to start training on U.S.-owned jets, which would, in turn, be a prerequisite for Kyiv receiving American-made fighters, from whatever source ... authorizes $100 million to train Ukrainian pilots and ground crews to become familiarized with U.S. aircraft ... would likely take around six months for pilots to convert to new fighters, with the bulk of this being related to tactics and the use of new weapons. The official also spoke of his belief that two 12-aircraft squadrons of F-16s, plus reserves, would be sufficient to help turn the tables against the Russian Aerospace Forces.
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••M270s arrive.
US assures Allies that the systems will not be used to attack Russian territory. Still unknown: is the Crimea and the Kersh Bridge valid targets or not?
••Spartz Scandal Cont.:
Keeps growing in size in Ukraine. Her accusations about Yermak are what everyone is talking about. She is being invited for media interviews.
••Russian Mobilization Efforts:
Meeting of Government and Putin appointed a new Vice Prime Minister, Manturo. His vision of Russian industry as the former Minister of Industry: the way Russian economy is going to be managed is moving away from a market economy and back to a centrally planed Soviet economy.
This is confirmation of their preparations for the war effort. Manturo stressed two areas that will be the focus of the Russian Industry:
Production of strike UAVs (equivalent to Turkish and US versions). RGF senior military claims they are missing strike UAVs on the battlefield;
Russia will attempt to make tools to make semiconductors.
Russia was trying to make a Fab to produce semiconductors, but because of the sanctions, Taiwan refused to supply the tools. This is mainly super difficult to make lithographic equipment, requiring cooperation across multiple industries. Right now there is a monopoly on making that sort of equipment.
Dutch company ASML is the only manufacture of this lithographic equipment, like modern ‘rocket science’.
Meanwhile Russia inactively ramping up purchases of Chinese semiconductors. Chinese Fabs are not very sophisticated, but their dated semiconductors are good enough for military applications.
Putin cancelled tax breaks for industry to increase government tax revenues and prohibited crypto currencies.
The point of all of this is that Russia will return to Soviet economy that was so disastrous in order to mobilize for war.
••Gazprom (a monopoly) released its statistics:
Production and export of NG
NG production fell 10% from 280Bcm (billion cubic meters) to 250Bcm, period of Jan 1-July 15.
NG export fell by 33% from 107Bcm to 72Bcm, same period.
••Rosneft is the largest Russian oil company, controlling most of the production and export of oil.
••Russian proposed ‘peace’ terms: they will take Crimea region as well as Donetsk’ and Luhansk’ regions. Message is: accept these terms or next time we all claim Kherson and Zaporizhiza regions.
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Summary: No changes.
Russian troops are being resupplied with fresh reserves and regrouped.
HIMARS MLRS rocket strikes stopped.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes.
- Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
1. Kharkiv: No changes.
2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
••Orc probing attacks continue. This tells us that this area will be the focus of any renewed major attacks. According to ZSU sources this state will continue until August, but could change quickly.
3. Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
4. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.
5. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.
••Orc troops tried to do wide-sector probing attacks starting at Vugledar and north to Voldamirivka. Could be a weak point in UA defenses as they are not heavily build up since the UA retreated here in April. Mostly just trenches on UA line.
Most logical plane for major attack would be to continue the Northern and southern pincer movements: Izyum south to Vugledar area, and Vugledar area north to Izyum. To continue in the heavily urbanized Luhansk’ region would incur heavy casualties for minimal gains.
6. Vugledar: No changes.
7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.
8. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.
Spartz laid out six major allegations against Yermak:
Leaking information to Belarus and ultimately to Russia on Ukraine’s operation to capture the “Wagner Group”, which led to its failure;
Mismanaging failed peace negotiations with Russia before the war;
Assuring Ukrainian leadership that no attack by Russia was going to happen this February, contrary to western intelligence, to prevent Ukraine from properly preparing for the war;
Sabotaging Kherson and giving it to the Russians to set up the “Azov” battalion tragedy;
Delaying purchases of urgent military equipment through the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and demanding unreasonable or even illegal terms;
Purposely delaying through Deputy Oleg Tatarov the appointment of an independent anti-corruption prosecutor.