The dollar's absurd show of strength cannot last.
It can certainly last longer than you or I would project. Remember, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”.
What has completely surprised me this last week is the bond rally. Why, with strong rate hikes promised, would there be demand for bonds, whose fall in value is rigidly tied to a rise in int rates? Is it a market maker runup designed to pin bonds high so they can be shorted high? Is it the expression that the stock market in which literally nothing is working is not done falling? And now with oil tanking, not even that is working. Is it a pure liquidity suck? Is it frantic demand for dollars, REGARDLESS of what you or I think about how crazy that is? Why, with rising rates, are bank stocks languishing? Shouldn’t bank stocks love rising rates? Not if they are forecasting a collapse in economic activity. For sure not. Personally I think it is a combo of all of those.
My “stock market centric” tell is the bank stocks. Just watch JPM or XLE. In my opinion, there is very simply no upside in this market until the bank stocks stabilize and at least start holding. None. JPM has been making new 52 week lows on quite the regular basis.