“… Taking Kramatorsk & Sloviansk will be problematic for Russia – After taking Lysychansk, the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut are next on Russia’s “list.” Over the past 8 years, Ukraine has built up substantial defense lines in front of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The Economist’s military expert doesn’t think Russia has sufficient strength to capture any of the 3. It is important to remember that Ukraine has built up similar defense lines around the portions of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts that Russia occupied in 2014. So far, Russia has been unable to penetrate those defense lines, so it stands to reason that they’d have trouble penetrating similar defense lines around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.…”
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Perhaps it might be well to remember the “Propasna breakthrough” and what it led to when prognosticating on what future military abilities are likely to be displayed in Ukraine.
No one has talked about air power or anti-aircraft for the last two months or more.
Is Ukraine able to get anything into the sky besides small drones? If so, how do they expect to march their new million-man army back into the South?
Yes, always wise during the ‘fog’ of war to remember the reversibility of prognosticating outcomes, i.e. “Propasna breakthrough”
1st- During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine Popasna was attacked by Russian forces. During the Battle of Donbas, this city has been at the frontlines between Russia and Ukraine.
On 8 May 2022, Governor of Luhansk Oblast Serhiy Haidai confirmed that Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat from the city of Popasna to take up more fortified positions, adding “everything was destroyed there”.
In the fighting near Popasna, RUSSIAN FORCES reportedly “damaged or destroyed every property in the town center.” Seriy Hayday, the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, claimed that RUSSIAN FORCES were “removing [Popasna] from the map of Luhansk region”.
On 22 April, Serhiy Haidai declared that the Russian army had failed in Popasna and Rushzhne. However, Haidai said that Russian and LPR troops controlled 80% of the territory of Luhansk.
Then, two weeks later on 7 May, the city was reportedly captured by Russian mercenary forces from Wagner Group. The city ravaged by fighting and Chechen Kadyrovites. Haidai confirmed that Ukrainian troops had withdrawn.