Posted on 07/12/2022 7:11:02 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
A detailed list of the destroyed and captured vehicles and equipment of both sides can be seen below. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
57 tanks lost so far in July. Beat down of RuZZia continues.
“Russian crewman crushed by turret of his own tank”
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vx80p0/russian_crewman_crushed_by_turret_of_his_own_tank/
“New @planet Skysat imagery shows the impact of the enormous blast at this ammunition depot in #NovaKakhovka at an industrial area after being targeted by #Ukraine. There’s likely to be widespread UXO contamination”
https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1546776805750734848
“Mayor: Russian military base in village near Russian-occupied Melitopol on fire. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said that residents of Myrne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, had heard about 25 explosions and seen thick black smoke.”
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1546834831945994245
Whatcha gonna do three weeks from now when kraine surrenders and even mapmakers start calling the place by its rightful name (малороссия) and nonbody even uses the word “ukraine” any more??
the ammunition depot hits are the main story. ukes need to keep doing that as fast as possible before the russians catch on.
by way of comparison—we have not heard about uke barricks being hit by russians for two months. likely because the ukes learned that its not so wise to present juicy targets. so their men and equipment are all skattered.
unless the russians are complete dumb asses —they’ll learn the same lesson. decentralize or die.
Demilitarization and denazification of RuZZia continues.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 11, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
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Extras:
Giant Explosions Rock More Russian Ammunition Depots In Ukraine
It’s clear that Ukraine is executing a major campaign targeting Russian ammo depots in order to blunt their terrifying artillery assaults.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/giant-explosions-rock-more-russian-ammunition-depots-in-ukraine
Video Of Ukraine’s Missile Attack On Russian-Occupied Black Sea Gas Rig Emerges
Three weeks after Ukraine attacked, the Russian-held Black Sea gas rig is still burning.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/video-of-ukraines-missile-attack-on-russian-occupied-black-sea-gas-rig-emerges
WiU Commenter On Decentralizing Storage:
Decentralizing storage is less of an easy solution than you might think. As you decentralize storage you require a greater degree of coordination, efficiency and modernization in your logistics chain and more man power. Russia doesn’t have the sophisticated supply chain to make this easy.
For example, if you want to maintain 1 site with say, grad rockets, you need guards, a commander, and loaders/unloaders. If you have ten sites, you need guards, a commander at ten sites, and then the loaders and unloaders. Each of those ten sites must maintain reserves independently with little buffer, so lots of coordination is required. Thus decentralization increases required manpower significantly.
In addition because Russian supply chains are not modernized decentralization is even more costly. The West has, since the Vietnam era, practiced container style load-outs. A units supplies (food, gas, ammunition, etc) are generally packed into one (or several) containers which are shipped directly to the unit.
This works just like modern container shipping fleets, each container on the vessel is intended for a specific destination, dock workers don’t ever enter a container and take things out of it. In a container based supply chain, as long as you have the equipment to move a container decentralization is much easier.
Russian supply chains are ‘break bulk’ style operations still. All the artillery shells are packed in one box, all the food in another, etc. etc. These are then forward shipped and receivers at the other end ‘break’ down the bulk shipped items by hand into trucks who come fetch them on demand as units need them down.
This necessitates large forward depots by its very nature and large amounts of manpower. This is reflected in the Russian supply vehicles you see (which are very much just trucks) versus US/Western supply vehicles which are more akin to a ruggedized semi-truck with a bed for containers.
For more details on break bulk vs container shipping, see The Box: How Shipping Containers Made the World Smaller and the Economy Bigger:
https://dokumen.pub/the-box-how-the-shipping-container-made-the-world-smaller-and-the-world-economy-bigger-second-edition-with-a-new-chapter-by-the-author-second-with-a-new-chapter-by-the-authornbsped-0691170819-9780691170817.html
This is why it took so long for the Ukrainians to decentralize their supply chains as well. They where break bulk supply chains, but the West just doesn’t do things that way. A lot of their supply chains are now just ... semis with containers. For Russia to make this change will take quite a bit of time.
They are simply not setup to run a container based supply chain that would make decentralization of their logistics chain a manageable affair. It’ll take quite some time for that to happen, if it does ...
Ukraine wasn’t either, but one of the ‘gifts’ of western supply is Western logistics. We are not setup to deliver stuff break bulk, so we don’t. We deliver containers and Ukraine deals with them, which makes their job much easier.
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••ZSU continues to hit Russian fuel & ammo depots. Last night they hit as pretty big depot in Nova Kakhovka, south of Kherson. And another in the rear in try Luhansk’ region. Russian sources say at least 20 dead and 40 wounded.
••Russia has no credible solution to this problem. Russian sources describe the attacks: first is low precision saturation rockets from the Hurricane system (BM-27 Uragan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-27_Uragan).
••Russian anti-air units try to shoot those rockets down; the rockets are relatively slow and big so they can often be successfully intercepted. Soon the Russian anti-air tells run out of munitions. Then, the ZSU does a second round with HIMARS, before there anti-air units can reload. This strategy helps to increase the efficiency of the strike.
••Russian troops are being withdrawn from the Luhansk’-Donbas, north area. Speculation is that the Russian command will not launch their next attack in this area. To attack in this area which is one huge built-up urban area would cause huge casualties for them that they cannot afford. Plus, in this area, there is a clear advantage for the ZSU in troop numbers over the Russian side.
••Area of Vugledar in the South is open area and is a likely place to conduct the next attack in force, continuing their southern pincer to the north. Russians would have short supply lines and air superiority; would work well for infantry, armor and air. Perhaps even the whole of the Zaporizhiza region could be the focus of their attack.
••Ukrainian government has conscripted ~700,000 troops, and there is another ~100,000 in the National Guard and ~60,000 in the Border Guard, giving a total number ~850,000 men under arms. They will continue conscription until the goal of 1,000,000 is met.
••Putin signed decree that Ukraine citizens can become Russian citizens - just fill out a form.
••Strange unscheduled meeting of the Russian Parliament may mean that Putin has made some major decision that needs to be legitimized by Parliament. Speculation is that Parliament will pass legislation to begin mass conscription, because R simply does not have enough troops to put into Ukraine, moreover because the ZSU has grown significantly and because of the pain from the loss of depots. (Edit: to decentralize depots, Russia will need a lot more men to man all of those small depots, if nothing else).
••On going Kallingrad situation. Lithuania has added even more items to block. Only option is sea transport. But that option in the long run is not viable. Prices of goods will double or triple.
••The Scandal between Ukraine and US House Republican Representative Victoria Spartz, Indiana has grown. US House Democrat Marcy Kaptur, Ohio accused Sparz of helping Russia by calling for the removal of Russian thug and FSB agent Yermak. Spartz responded that remaining silent actually helps Russia. Spartz gave interview to Ukraine media channel, Ukrainian Pravda, a NY Times-like Ukraine news outlet.
Spartz went to Ukraine and talked to the people on the ground, east to west, north to south, and they told her there is a problem with the weapons from the west. Many of these weapons remain in ammo depots in the center of the country, and are not being sent to the front. While the frontline troops do not have enough of these weapons, there is plenty in the central storage depots.
Many people pointed to Yermak, head of the Presidential Administration (he runs the country not Ze). He is is not helping UA defend the country. The people conclude he is a Russian spy and FSB plant.
(Edit: See yesterday’s report for rest of the story.)
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Summary: No changes. Russian troops are being resupplied with fresh reserves and regrouped.
Continued severe pain on the Russian side from rocket strikes by HIMARS MLRS.
No strategic answer from the Russian side yet.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes.
- Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
1. Kharkiv: No changes.
••North of of Kharkiv intensity of the shelling has decreased.
2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
••Small scale Orc attacks.
3. Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
••Orc troops in Lysychansk are being withdrawn to east.
4. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.
5. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.
••Small scale Orc attacks
••Orc propaganda is recycling previously captured villages as being just captured. Appears like progress being made when nothing is happening.
6. Vugledar: No changes.
7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.
8. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.
••Ukraine doing same thing here as Orcs with its propaganda - repeating stories of victories from weeks of moth ago.
••Russia report heavy artillery and rocket barrages here
“the russians are complete dumb asses”
You may have your answer.
How it done - from Russian sources:
Russia has no credible solution to this problem. Russian sources describe the attacks: first is low precision saturation rockets from the Hurricane system (BM-27 Uragan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-27_Uragan).
Russian anti-air units try to shoot those rockets down; the rockets are relatively slow and big so they can often be successfully intercepted. Soon the Russian anti-air tells run out of munitions.
Then, the ZSU does a second round with HIMARS, before there anti-air units can reload. This strategy helps to increase the efficiency of the strike.
Ukraine has the benefit of western help to decentralize - the Russians have no such benefit - see description of how its done in War in Ukraine post.
Decentralization in the Russia and the RGF may take many years to achieve.
Ukraine decentralized months ago, but the Orcs haven’t a clue or the equipment (forklifts, pallet jacks, inventory systems, cargo containers and trucks, etc).
“On going Kallingrad situation. Lithuania has added even more items to block. Only option is sea transport. But that option in the long run is not viable. Prices of goods will double or triple.”
When RuZZia stops gas to EU, then Lithuania needs to shut nat gas to Kaliningrad.
Hopefully, Serbia gets gas cut also. Little Pukin’s allies can suffer too.
EU would be dumb to admit Serbia. RuZZia would have a veto over EU decisions.
“Whatcha gonna do three weeks from now when kraine surrenders”
Ah yes, another nonsense prediction that will not bear out...
“the russians are complete dumb asses”
You may have your answer.
fun to consider. but probably not wise to presume.
There are very pretty piles of munitions that munitions & supply officers have built since the war began—because that’s what they do to be true and beautiful and worthy of their stripes and ribbons. they will not change until their commanding officers demand change.
How long will that take? the commanding officers won’t change their tactics until they can’t actually do anything because their logistics won’t allow them to do anything.
How long will that take? That should be happening now. We should be reading reports that the artillery fire coming from the russians has diminished.
Their problem is that their way of war —that is to pulverize things at their front with artillery—depends on lots of shells delivered quickly to their guns.
So it will take a couple more weeks or a month for the russians to rethink and reconfigure their supply chain. For the generals to command the supply chain people to do stuff differently and exactly how to do things differently. So the supply chain guys can make smaller piles of ammo and a trucking network to haul the rounds into position.
This is a very hard lesson for the Russians. Their military is highly centralized in supply and command and control. In command and control this results in inflexible tactical leadership, which is showing up as losses in field grade officers as they try to exercise control over units that should be effectively lead by more junior officers. They were starting to address that inflexibility in Afghanistan but they seem to have forgotten those lessons.
Again, their supply support is not adequate. If they strip other active duty and reserve units for their supply trucks they may get enough to supply their needs for now. But borrowing from Peter to pay Paul only works for a while.
Nova Kakhovka (x2), Alchevsk (x2), Tavriysk, Near Kherson Airfield, Kherson Military Base, 2 villages in North Kherson, Oleshky Sands, Tokmak, Luhansk City, Shakhtarsk, Near Velyka Shyshivka, and Tavriysk
Haha. Even Serbia wants another nat gas supplier.
“Serbia, completely dependent on Russian gas supplies, plans to buy gas from Azerbaijan in 2023, – Serbian Energy Minister Zorana Mihajlovic says, Reuters reports.
The construction of an interconnector from Serbia to the Bulgarian pipeline is expected to be completed next year.”
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