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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 9, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue.

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Extras:
Ukraine Situation Report: 3,000 155mm NATO Artillery Rounds Being Fired A Day
The artillery duel in Ukraine’s east shows no signs of slowing as troops gobble through thousands of 155mm rounds every single day.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-3000-155mm-artillery-rounds-being-fired-a-day

Excerpt:
The U.S. and NATO allies have donated hundreds of thousands of 155mm rounds to Ukraine.

Ukrainian PzH-2000 155mm SPG firing a shot about once every 8 seconds
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1545442908941189121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1545442908941189121%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-3000-155mm-artillery-rounds-being-fired-a-day

Video of Ukrainian SSO on Snake Island
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1545475749162917888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1545475749162917888%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-3000-155mm-artillery-rounds-being-fired-a-day

You can see two Tor-M2 9A331M TLAR and a Pantsir-S1 air defense systems
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1545477447323467777

Special Operations Forces of Ukraine shared details about the operation on Zmiinyi Island, July 7: - At night, on July 7, the combat swimmers of the 73rd Marine Center approached Zmiinyi Island on underwater vehicles
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1545137250891096066?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1545137250891096066%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-3000-155mm-artillery-rounds-being-fired-a-day

Since Jun-27, Ukraine have hit and destroyed at least 5 ammunition depots in Luhansk Oblast in eastern Ukraine, MAP
https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1545738253936037890?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1545738253936037890%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-3000-155mm-artillery-rounds-being-fired-a-day

Ukrainian DJI Matrice 300 RTK rigged with an 82mm mortar shell
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1545666801018802176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1545666801018802176%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-3000-155mm-artillery-rounds-being-fired-a-day

The UK has started turning the first of around 10,000 Ukrainian recruits into frontline soldiers at four bases across England, safe from Russian missile fire, it can be revealed.
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1545649717723504643?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1545649717723504643%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-3000-155mm-artillery-rounds-being-fired-a-day

Something different:
China’s NEW T-99A Army Tank Leaked, What Does it Tell Us?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy-Lv5N1WYQ

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••Victoria Spartz accusation of Andrey Yermak
Internal Ukrainian politics:
••Victoria Spartz a US House Republican Representative from Indiana
(image: https://imgs.search.brave.com/55p5SY1xObAfZZjSc2gATPZFq228sXpBIj98yYmQ-6E/rs:fit:1200:630:1/g:ce/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cu/d2VzdGVybmpvdXJu/YWwuY29tL3dwLWNv/bnRlbnQvdXBsb2Fk/cy8yMDIwLzExL1Zp/Y3RvcmlhLVNwYXJ0/ei5qcGc)

(Edit: Congresswoman Victoria Spartz (née Kulheyko; Ukrainian: Вікторія Кульгейко, romanized: Viktoriya Kul’heyko; born October 6, 1978) immigrated to the United States in 2000 after meeting her husband Jason, a born and raised Hoosier, on a train in Europe. She became a US Citizen and worked her way up from being a bank teller to a CPA, finance executive, successful business owner.)

(Edit: US sourced stories here (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/09/ukraine-foreign-ministry-blasts-rep-victoria-spartzs-cynical-allegations-00044860) and here (https://nypost.com/2022/07/06/ukraine-born-rep-victoria-spartz-rips-biden-volodymyr-zelensky/)

••She accused Andrey Yermak who is the head of the Presidential Administration in the Ukraine, aka the Grey Cardinal, of working for Russia and leaking a lot of information to Russia. She urged Zelenski to remove him. The Ukraine Minister of Foreign Affairs responded by defending him and launched attack against Spartz.

Yermak has a key person who have strong ties to Russia: Oleg Tatarov who worked closely with the Former President who fled to Russia in 2014 because of mass uprising against him. At the time, Tatarov was head of the police and one of those responsible for suppressing the uprising. He escaped investigation and was next seen as one of Yermak aids.

Presidential Administration reply runs the county; Zelenski has 240 out of 245 seats in Parliament. Yermak is the “brain center” for all of the activities happening in Parliament and from the Prime Minister. Essentially, Yermak has all of them in his “pocket”. Twice this fellow has publicly called for Ukraine to surrender. Basically, he is an asset of the FSB.

Another key person in Yermak’s entourage is Andrey Portnov who has strong ties to Russia was lawyer and legal adviser to former President Yanukovich. His job was to make illegal activities look legal and legitimate. This is a typical FSB strategy. Making everything illegal legal is essentially a corruption of the legal system and the system into a dictatorship. A third person hired by Yermak is Alexey Arestovich who serves as press secretary covering up any issues or problems. Fed to Russia in 2014 returned in 2019. (Edit: a strategy that looks familiar here in the US.)

Clear clash between Ukraine Presidential Administration and Spartz - something going on in the background which is not clear.

••Yuri Bezmenov:
(Edit: who was a propagandist for the KGB. Wrote: “Deception Was My Job” - currently out of print and CD no longer available. Used be available on my website, which unfortunately is no more. See instead: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=yuri+bezmenov+1985+interview).

When 2004 the Orange Revolution occurred Ukraine, Alexia Stolwich with Bezmenov and Alexander Dugin left Ukraine for Russia and met in Moscow in 2005 at Ria Novsti, a Russian press agency, where they held a press conference saying that the US is meddling in Ukraine and created the artificial coup. Dugin is now a “brain center” behind Russian visionary for Russian world and for Russian politics today. His politics as are similar to National socialist in G in the 1930s.

Bezmenov explains how KGB manipulates the west through policies. He explained that Ria Novsti was KGB outlet, run and staffed by KGB. He explains in a clear manner in his book (above) how the Soviet system works - highly recommended link above.

••Wagner Gate:
Joint operation between Secret Services of Ukraine, UK, US, and Turkey to capture Wagner troops to expose their dirty laundry with Operation Avenue in Libya and Syria, August 2020 using fake recruiting effort by Ukraine Secret Service. The 30+ recruits were assembled in Moscow on July 25th, then bused to Minsk, then fly to Istanbul, Turkey. Their plane would be forced down over Ukraine and the recruits captured. However, the Presidential Administration in Ukraine leaked this operation to Russia.

Belarus KGB stopped them in Minsk and the recruits were saved. Made a huge scandal in Ukraine. Ukraine Military Intelligence, Burba was fired. New appointee was voted by Yermak. Arestovich flatly denied the entire Operation and all of the fallout from it.

Now there is a clear move to fire Yermak, but he is providing everything that makes the government work, firing him for that reason is difficult.

Before Yanukovich was ousted, he used Paul Manafort on how to improve his public image in Ukraine, and how to manage the country’s internal political system. Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska had hired Manafort for advise in Russia, and then recommended him to Yanukovich.

The point of this was Manafort created narratives that split the country along language and ethnic lines. Yanukovich was financing pro-Ukraine language riff in the country for the reason that (while Manafort likely had no idea what was really going on) the rift would create a future reason for Russia to invade. An internal baked in reason to invade. Deripaska is not a random oligarch, he’s wired into FSB system. WiU says this is the most likely conclusion from the evidence, is just his analysis. Deripaska owns Russian aluminum production which he is managing as a front man on behalf of the FSB.

This is the typical KGB operation the Bezmenov describes: split a country into parts in order to manufacture a pretext to come in on one side or the other and take it over. (Edit: as China is doing to the US). Thus, the Russians can come in to defend the Russian part of the country against the oppressive Ukraine side. Manafort was just a tool in the process.

••Initial attack on Kyiv
Initial plan of the Russian generals was to be a lightning attack. The initial group were helicopter-borne troops, mostly from the 45th sfB (special forces Brigade), along with some troops from the 31st AB (Airborne Brigade), 11th AB, 76th AD (Airborne Division).

These were considered (by Russian sources) to be the best of the best, the creme of the crop of all sfB Brigades in the RGF. All of these troops were consolidated units: all volunteers for the “special operation”. AB units in the RGF are pretty horribly equipped generally, but have lots of spirit and motivation.

(Edit: ‘consolidated’ means that the units were not the whole of the unit, but parts and pieces brought together to form a whole; this would require a long explanation I don’t have time to explain, but just know these were not the mythical Western BTGs in either structure, composition or size.)

They assembled 150 helicopters, (some attack: KA-52s - excellent machine with excellent survivability, some transport). More than 200, maybe 400 from 45th to land and capture the Hostomel airport. Next, they were to capture the airfield at Vasylkiv south of Kyiv.

Once these two airports are secured, the rest of the Airborne troops will fly in Ilyushin Il-76 transports and would land at both airports: 31st AB, 11th AB, 76th AD

The troops from the 5th TB, 76th AB, 98th AB, 106th AB, 11th, 31 AB, SOBR, 141st Reg (46th B), 249th Bt “South” (46 B) stationed in Belarus would push south by land to Kyiv. The 90th TD and 2nd mD (Mechanized Division) would attack from the East toward Kyiv - these also were cream of the crop units. Both groups, West and East numbered 45-50,000 troops each.

Then in a quick attack, without suppressing fire, go to Kyiv, capture Kyiv, Parliament, and Zelenski. All of this relayed on one assumption which did not work out: The UA will not put up any strong resistance and collapse, halting any resistance, and civilian resistance would not occur they would be apathetic, would not care, or would support Russia. That was the idea.

Two or three of the sfB helicopters where shot down at the onset. In one of those helicopters was the commander of the whole operation. His death paralyzed the whole operation, leaving the troops leaderless.

The second problem was the troops, that were to take the Hostomel transport airport, landed next to the Ukraine 1st National Guard Brigade barracks just to the south. The Russians had 200- 400 troops, the National Guard had 2,000 - it was the best trained and motivated of the National Guard units, a hybrid between a true military unit and a military police unit, with some heavy equipment. But, taken by surprise, they began to retreat. In the 2nd half of the day, the 1st NG reformed and blocked the Russians.

Later, there was a drop of 200 more sfB troops north of the Vasylkiv military airbase, where the situation was identical. The sfB pushed the unknown Ukraine unit south, taking the airbase and almost taking the town.

The two civilian air ports were previously blocked by heavy equipment and trucks so no landing could take place. Zelenski and the top politicals were expecting this sort of operation.

At the same time, other Russian forces began advancing on land quickly from Belarus. The UA 14th managed delay them by a few of hours, but they were facing maybe 2X-3X their number.

In the 2nd half of the day, the Russian units managed to break through Ivankiv where the14th was defending. They pushed on to Dimpr ether they were stopped again in the late afternoon. Then they tried going south west. The first idea was t drive to the Hostomel airport to relieve the troops trapped there. At the end of the day and during the night, they managed to reach the airport and relive the troops there.

Meanwhile, the ZSU 14th got split into two pieces with one moving west blocking an important rail hub and the other south blocking major highway connecting Kyiv with Poland. While all of this is going on, ordinary citizens were organizing themselves and doing what they could - essentially, disorganized militias.

The ZSU Command brought the 72 Brigade up from 100km south; the 72nd surrounded the Vasylkiv military airbase. Other units of the Brigade moved north to help stem the Russian advance on Kyiv where the Russian troop column was stalled for 10s of kilometers

In this critical moment, the Ukraine top politicals began to freely give weapons out, as the city was essentially defenseless. Probably 20-30,000 people volunteered. This was a very intelligent move from the politicals to save the situation.

From the night of the 25th to the 26th Feb, the Russians broke through the UA defenses and began to enter the city. From midnight to 6Am one off the sfB units driving tracks at full speed managed to cross a bridge and get to an area of the city called Sylyavka, where the ZSU 101st Brigade destroyed them. After that, the two bridges to the city where blown. Then on the 27th, the 72nd Brigade began to slowly push Russian from Irpin and launched a successful counter attack toward Bucha.

The other part of the 72nd at the Vasylkiv military airbase eliminated the Russian sfB troops that day. Once that happened, taking Kyiv in 2-4 days was essential over. Both the Russian assumptions on how the operation would unfold were proven wrong. Ukraine civilians took a heavy toll because they were unprepared, untrained, and had only light equipment.

••Russian Special Forces Brigade lost about 50% of their troops. In general, it was a great plan, but went wrong on the major assumptions, the loss of the operation command, failure to take the airports, the redirection of other troops for air transport to trucks which got backed up.

The Eastern group got bogged down and by the time it reached Kyiv, they had lost steam. The frontal attacks lead to heavy Russian losses because the area is heavily forested. East and West forces could not unite and were split by river, giving ZSU a chance to move troops where they were needed, Russian troops could never get the concentration needed to take the city - where many thousands of civilians were ready to fight and Russians who would have taken very heavy casualties.

So that’s how the Russian plan got derailed and changed into something else which was not executable, and had to withdraw at the end of March.

••ZSU command over the last 4-5 days has been concentrated on attacking ammo dumps in the Russian rear in 50-7 0km range. The Carew very successful, and just destroyed a number of them. It remains to be seen if this solves the problem: WiU remains skeptical, a short-term solution creating short term solution for 5 days a week.

But in the long run, the Russian troops will be able to replenish their ammo reserves and be able to continue their attacks, unless the ZSU attacks continue. However, the Russians will just make their depots less concentrated and more numerous, forcing the ZSU to use more munitions.

Right now the ZSU is taking advantage of Russian logistical unit mistakes that concentrates ammo in large piles in a few places. May take Russians a week or two to figure out what to do, then they will rebuild their machine and continue hammering away with that machine. This is why WiU is skeptical of the ZSU ammo dump targeting and does not present a long term solution.

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Summary: No changes. Russian troops are being resupplied with fresh reserves and regrouped.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes.
- Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.

1. Kharkiv: No changes.

2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.

3. Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
••Orcs claim to have captured a tiny town near the river in the north, but the evidence they showed is false, and is actually close to the town of Bilohovika.
5th Brigade of 1AK has been operating here all along. This massed concentration of troops the ZSU has not been able to counter so far.

4. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.

5. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.
••Front manned only by LNR/DNR 1AK (1, 5, 15, 3 Brigades) Locations unknown.

6. Vugledar: No changes.

7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.

8. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.