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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 8, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue.

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Extras:
U.S. Says Russia’s Prized Kerch Bridge Is A Fair Target For Ukrainian Forces
The $3.5B bridge Russia built to connect with Crimea is a major strategic and economic asset that Moscow seems very concerned with protecting.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-official-says-russias-prized-kerch-bridge-fair-target-for-ukrainian-forces

Russia Now Firing S-300 Surface-To-Air Missiles At Land Targets In Ukraine: Official
The Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile system does have a little-known latent ability to strike land targets.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-at-land-targets-in-ukraine-official

Four More HIMARS Launchers Heading To Ukraine Bringing Total To 12
This latest round of weapons deliveries from the U.S. to Ukraine will also include 1,000 precision-guided 155mm artillery shells.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/four-more-himars-launchers-heading-to-ukraine-bringing-total-to-12
Excerpt:
The official declined to answer repeated questions about whether the new high-precision rounds were the M982 Excalibur precision-guided 155mm artillery shell. The Excalibur, which the Army, as well as the U.S. Marines, have been using for more than a decade, is only capable of hitting stationary targets using its GPS-assisted inertial navigation system (INS) guidance package. The M982 has a maximum range of 20 miles.

WiU Commenter #1:
What Ukrainian units divisions are considered elite or first grade as in US Marines or 101 Airborne Division or 10th Mountain Division in US Army?

Ukrainian Airborne, Mountain and Marine forces are all considered elite and are largely trained by their NATO counterparts (transitioning from their Soviet heritage). They are all organized in brigades today. You have eight airborne brigades (six air assault (helicopter), one airborne (para) and one airmobile (light infantry).

All have been prolific in this war:
25th paras holding the line south defending New York;
79th doing the dramatic David-Goliath stunt at Lyman;
81st more or less saving the Izyum debacle all on their own for a few hours;
80th securing Mikolaiv and 95th cleaning up Charkiv;
46th held the line at Horlivke.

I haven’t seen 45th at all this war myself in fact, they are from the border area with Romania and supposed to be deployed there. If it is, it is being very discreet. All airborne brigades except it have suffered more or less horrific casualties and I am not sure today how many remains that have the prewar high quality NATO training, nor the eight year experience. And so I am no longer sure if they perform like elite. But they certainly have until now. By the way they have switched from the Soviet-era VDV blue berets to red berets. A very British-looking maroon nuance. So they don’t look like Russians anymore.

There are two brigades of marines:
35th and 36th. They have changed the soviet black beret to a green beret and thus also no longer look like the Russians. The green is identical with UK green and they also carry their rifles across the chest exactly like UK marines, and only UK marines do. They are tied to the Black Sea and have fared ill in this war.

Most of the 36th completely destroyed at Mariupol (remnants still fight up by Zaporizhiza);
35th is fighting around Mikolaiv. Their reputation as a combat force took a hit by the early surrenders (not the final one in Mariupol) and I am not so sure that the army consider them reliable anymore. I have seen some indications of tensions there. Then again, I have also seen the opposite and especially airborne units seem to still have confidence in the marines. We will see I guess.

There are three Ranger brigades, two Mountain and one “Jäger” which translates to Ranger.
Ukraine has an ancient tradition of mountain warfare, independent of what empire they have fought for.
10th Mountain has a long history of taking heavy losses and has continued to do so in this war - mainly because it has constantly been in the thickest fighting (they were around Mariupol - didn’t get caught there, they were at Lysychansk and so on) and as far as i have been able to tell, not been allowed to rest for 4 months of uninterrupted intense combat.

Consequently this magnificent fighting formation now has some serious morale issues, with refusals and such going on. But also still fighting of course.

You have the much older 128th Mountain It is a rock solid force that fought in the Donbas until it (or part of it?) had to be hurled away to plug the potentially lethal gap east of Zaporizhiza, which it did.

Now as for the 61st Jäger I personally do not think it actually exists and have never found any trace of it, but it is supposed to be defending the northwest borders. Very discreetly, obviously.

Ukraine also has special forces as such
There are three former Spetsnaz groups turned more SAS like and one turned more SBS like. They are all over the place doing all kinds of mischief.
Finally, the National Guard actually has some elite units as well.
There is the 4th Rapid Reaction brigade that fought in Kyiv, Rubizjne, Sievierdonetsk and so on.
And there are special forces teams responsible for the presidents life and so on, also National Guard.

This war has proven that several units that cannot be called elite in terms of training or equipment, or status, have proven to be so.
The 1st, 14th, 24th, 93rd and 72nd springs immediately to mind - as with the others they have taken a severe beating now and especially the 24th, I’m not entirely convinced it still exists as a coherent force. But their performance thus far, is incredible really. And there are others too.

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••Lithuania and Kaliningrad
Russian minister has said that their patience has worn thin and are prepared to respond in a “rough way”.

••Russian Steel Production
Steel in June fell 20-50%. Steel making becoming unprofitable.

••Shortages of Fries in Russia
Food chains are removing fries from menus because of a shortage of potatoes.

••Personal Bankruptcies of Ordinary People In Russia
Rose by 40%.

••Analysis of the First four days of the war will be covered tomorrow: 2/24-2/28
What was role of the special forces, the Russian plan of attack, initial steps of the planned attack, and how it fell apart.

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Summary: Russian troops captured village Spirne. Russian troops are being resupplied with fresh reserves and regrouped.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes.
- Popasna/Lysychansk area: Russian troops captured village Spirne, Wagner mercenaries made progress towards village Vesela Dolyna near Bahmut.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.

1. Kharkiv: No changes.
••North of Kharkiv: tension remain elevated and shelling heavy.

2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
••5-7 Orc tanks destroyed in an attack here.

3. Popasna/Lysychansk area: Ukrainian troops were squeezed from village Spirne,
Wagner mercenaries captured some ground towards village Vesela Dolyna, Ukrainian troops established defensive line on the outskirts of the village.
••Orcs in Lysychansk area making gains because UA troops are exhausted.Heavy artillery shelling by UA cause Orcs to retreat.
••Wagner Group made significant westerly advance.

4. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.

5. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.

6. Vugledar: No changes.

7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.

8. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.
••Orcs are attacking what remained of the UA bridgehead south of the river. Remains to be seen if is just a mop up or part of something larger to come.