[RatRipper]

I thought we already had our two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Am I wrong??

[EnderWiggin1970]

We have had one quarterly report, I think it was -1.4%, later revised to -1.5% IIRC. In July we’ll get the 2Q report which would make a recession official.

I’m leaning towards it being “obvious” that we will get another negative report, the one wildcard being government spending. I know I’m in Frugality Mode at this point, if a decent number of other people are following suit then recession is a sure thing.

[alloysteel]

Things HAVE gone bad, and we are nowhere near the bottom yet.

The fit has hit the shan, folks, and there is no place or any time left to duck what is coming.

If we have a parallel in history, look at the storm that took down Herbert Hoover from 1930 on. His defeat in the 1932 election ushered in FDR and the New Deal, and a depression that was worse in 1938 than it was in 1933.

[packagingguy]

Well strippers are complaining the clubs are not pulling in as many people and their tips have gone down. So yes, we are in a recession. Guys are left watching PornHub or XHamster on their computers.

https://www.indy100.com/viral/market-crash-strippers-recession

[Pelham]

“I thought we already had our two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Am I wrong??”

That’s often believed to be the definition of recession but there really isn’t a hard and fast rule. It’s probably close but the NBER actually has a committee that votes on when the business cycle turns.

https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions

Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion?

A: The NBER’s traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee’s view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.

[Tallguy]

Officially 1 (& counting).

[Robert A Cook PE]

1st quarter 2022 WAS NEGATIVE already at -1.5% GDP. April and May 2022 have both been negative across the board for everything. Maybe not 1.5 negative, but certainly not “positive GDP “ better than January to May.

So, how will they avoid two negative quartets, with only 14 days left in June to gain back +1.5% for these past 90 days?