Any estimates on how long Russia can keep up the “50,000 artillery strikes daily” in eastern Ukraine?
At some point logistics do become an issue in ground wars.
Or so I have been told.
Give the Russians credit. They have successfully changed tactics. They are no longer losing tanks because they are not using tanks in frontal assaults. Instead they are remembering the real lessons of WW II. Most of the soldiers killed were the victims of artillery barrages. The Ukrainians have neither the capacity for effective counter battery fire or the ability to interdict Russian resupply of shells and artillery pieces.
“A Russian tank was destroyed by a Ukrainian RK-3 Korsar anti-tank guided missile operator in the vicinity of Izium, #Kharkiv Oblast.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1536748207925088261
They learned and switched tactics.
No longer leading with tanks, so the loss rate has dramatically decreased.
Artillery first, to remove the anti-tank teams.
The loss of tanks is a valid parameter on who is winning this war?
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, June 13, 2022
(’Orc ‘is associated with the various hoards of Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
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••Economy, Energy Policy, Fertilizer, Oil, Food Prices - all inter related. One system.
••Ukraine Economy.
It continues to plagued by poor to disastrous government economic and regulatory decisions. No relief in sight, will continue to grow worse.
••Russian Economy.
Russia has 85 regions: in February 72 regions showed positive economic growth; in April less than 27 regions show positive economic growth. Russian economy on slow downward trend, but slower then Ukraine which is nosediving - pretty fast. Without an economy, you cannot wage a war. Only foreign support for economy and war keeps Ukraine going.
••Energy Policy.
The West’s economic policy blocking Russian oil makes things worst than they might have been otherwise, leading to extremely high inflation everywhere. Stock market decline, interest rate rise, mortgage rate rise - are all a result of the disastrous oil policy.
••Energy Dilemma
Option 1 Positive increase in supply of oil. Modern world is built around cheap sources of energy, else we would be living in some time from the Middle Ages to the early 20th century when energy was expensive or almost non-existent. The only true positive fix is to increase oil & gas production in the US and Canada. (Edit: the Trump Approach, lift the economy.)
Option 2 Negative solution is to kill off demand, so consumer demand falls. This creates another problem, driven by interest rates - they drive everything. To kill consumer demand interest rates have to go very high. The approach will create a borderline depression in the West in order to bring price of Russian resources down. Because the current level of interest rates leaves the price of oil and grain mostly untouched, interest rates will have to increase even more. Will need to crash the economy everywhere (Edit: worldwide depression?).
This policy enables Russia to deflect, to a great extent, the negative Western economic policy back to the West, like a boomerang; it will hurt the West more than Russia. The West will drain its resources while Russia will be minimally effected. So it will be a matter of how quickly the Ukraine loses financial support in the West verses the decline in the Russian economy; first one to the bottom loses.
(Edit: the slow 0bama Approach [frogs in a warming pot} followed by the rapid {boiling frogs} Biden Approach to crash the economy.)
••Advises everyone to pay attention to this because the West Policy (the Biden Approach), is designed to purposely crash the economy and cause a near or a full-on Depression.
••Food as Driver of Inflation.
Ukraine will export ~25 million tons of grain this year, or half of it’s usual grain export.
••Libya stopped oil production; Wagner Group was fighting there.
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Summary: Small Russian advance near Kharkiv - captured villages Starytsya, Izbytske, Varvarivka.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: Ukrainian troops pushed back Russian forces in Bogorodychne, fighting now is in the village.
- Severodonetsk: Ukrainian troops continue keeping foothold at Azot plant.
- Popasna area: no changes.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
1. Kharkiv: Russian troops increased buffer by capturing villages Starytsya, Izbytske, and Varvarivka. Rubizhne is in UA hands. There is a lot of grey zone in this corner and no continuous frontline.
••Village capture keeps ZSU from shelling major Orc supply center.
2. Izyum bridgehead. Ukrainian troops pushed Russian troops in Bogorodychne and fighting is now in the village. Russian troops did not manage to establish bridgeheads in Pryshyb, Sydorove or Tetyanivka.
••ZSU managed a small scale push back of a kilometer or so.
3. Severodonetsk - Ukrainian troops are fighting at Azot plant, main supply route is destroyed. The re-supply of Ukrainian troops becomes significant challenge.
••At some point it will become too expensive in terms of lives to keep supplying them.
••LNR 2AK(2,4,7) is in a very sorry state. Russian sources: 4th Brigade is at 50% - means fighting half of unit is close to nothing - conscripts are constantly being forced into battle - poorly trained and equipped relative to the RGF.
••Mostly small groups of foreign fighters fighting on their own. Front line unclear.
4. Popasna area: No changes.
Donetsk residential areas being heavily shelled in preparation for something big political - Orcs will make some sort of allegation like a formal declaration of war - (who is doing the shelling not said).
5. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.
6. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.
7. Vugledar is in Ukrainian hands. No changes.
8. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.
9. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.