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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, May 30, 2022
(’Orc ‘is associated with the various hoards of Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue

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Bonus:
Denys Davydov, former Ukrainian 737 and ATR 42/72 pilot - good maps, drills down to village levels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeGot6A4uZs

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••Ukraine Economy at this point is totally dead. Surviving companies and businesses are exception, not the norm. Will continue to worsen, until Ukraine is totally dependent on foreign aid.

••Russian Economy
••EU bans Russian oil imports, except for 3 countries that get oil by pipeline. Totally bad policy, as Orcs export EU volume to China and India at $70 bbl. Production Costs not more than $20 and likely closer to $10-15 bbl. Huge profits and supports war effort, while creating problem in the rest of the world possibly driving pricer to $150 bbl.

••Russia was not allowed to pay investors of its debt. Technical default forced by US Treasury. 30 day grace period that will probably turn into default. Russia does not care. Repercussions will be felt in West. (Edit: another amazingly bad JoeB policy).

••Steel Production for internal construction drops 40%. Steel Export market drops 38%. Big gold mine goes on strike - miners not paid.

••Russian Politics
••Today it was announced that several Putin advisors stepped down in April. These advisors were part of the old Yeltsin group and were (per agreement with Putin) left in place to protect the old guard who acted as a balance in the system. Now with them gone, the political system has a uniform pro-war outlook, with no counters.

••Weapons
••Slovakia transfers 8 wheeled Zuzana 155 mm 52-calibre gun, full 360-degree turret traverse, a new armored cab and further reduced crew of three enabled by automation, claimed to possess Multiple round simultaneous impact (MRSI) ability. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artillery#Multiple_round_simultaneous_impact)

France to transfer unknown number more 52 caliber Caesars, adds to the 12 already in use.
https://www.army-technology.com/projects/caesar/

Puts UA at a slight advantage numerically over better Orc SPGs.

••(Denys Davydov: US MLRS - getting 20 but need 300.)

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Summary: Ukrainian forces are losing control over Severodonetsk.

Key areas: - Izyum bridgehead: no changes.
- Lyman bridgehead - only Svyatohirsk bridgehead remains in Ukrainian hands.
- Severodonetsk - Ukrainian troops lost most of the town - Popasna area: no changes.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes -
Kherson bridgehead: attack by Ukrainian troops from Davydiv Brid towards Beryslav is apparently stopped by Russian artillery and air strikes.

1. Kharkiv: no changes, Ternova is captured by Russian forces, Rubizhne is in UA hands.

2. Izyum bridgehead. It is extremely dangerous penetration by Russian troops that potentially could lead to large pocket for Ukrainian troops west of Donetsk. Many Russian units from there were transferred to a salient near Popasna to exploit initial successes of Russian troops there. No changes today.
••New Orc commander who took over in April is using better strategy

3. Lyman bridgehead. Only Svyatohirsk remains under Ukrainian control.

4. Rubizhne: captured by Russian troops

5. Severodonetsk - Ukrainian troops are losing control of the town pretty quickly - more than 50% (~60%) of the town is in Russian hands. Center of the town is controlled by Russian troops.
••(Denys Davydov: only 10% of buildings remain. UA trading ground to avoid huge losses in city fighting; Orcs don’t care about losses)

••(Denys expects Orc to take rest of city in next few days, as UA falls back to the high ground of Lysychansk from which they can shell the Orcs in the city. This allows the UA to take far fewer casualties, while inflicting heavy casualties on Orcs. Taking city not a big deal militarily, but good Orc propaganda.)

••UA retreating an evacuate city - rear guard fighting. Orcs will shortly capture huge nitrogen fertilizer facility.

6. Popasna area. No Russian advances today.

7. Svtilodarsk area: No Russian advances today.

8. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes today.

9. Vugledar is in Ukrainian hands. No changes today.

Zaporizhya Salient:
10. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.

11. Kherson bridgehead: Ukrainian army attacked from area near Davydiv Brid, pushed into Russian defenses to village Bruskynske (controlled by Ukrainian army).
Russian troops failed in their attempt to counter-attack and cut off Ukrainian forces.
However, Ukrainian troops were stopped in Bruskynske by Russian artillery fire and air attacks.
Russian troops retreated to village Kostromka and regrouping their for a new counter-attack. No changes today.
••Orcs have only screening forces in the area and are not able to do much - artillery and air saved the day. No Orc reinforcements have appeared. Potentially good new for UA but doesn’t look like they have enough troops to be successful.