Couldn't agree more. People should go back and look at the chart for the 2008 flash crash it took about a year for the market to lose 1/2 (half) its value. There were bear market rallies all the way down.
Interest rates are going up until inflation starts going down. The market has always been interest rate sensitive. The mid-terms may be a turning point in getting the Biden administration to be more pro growth. But I doubt it. We will likely have to wait until 2024 and elect a new president. Which means things start looking up in 2025.
This is not investment advice just my own personal opinion. Remember when the Dot Com bubble burst the QQQ, it took 10+ years to get back to new all time highs.
Some prediction or outlook will be correct. This is no V bottom event as in ‘20. Considerable damage has been done by this administration. They have battered the fundamentals for growth in their all out push for green and with their boneheaded other programs and spending. Energy prices are what make for growth or none. They effect everything we do and you can’t shift energy policy this quickly without battering the economy.
We are not even to the bottom yet and it will be flat. Too much damage has been done. Remember the obama / biden era and the “green shoots” of 2011 that never were. We were in stifled recovery mode for much of the 8 years of obama with hope only arriving in the ‘16 election. We then enjoyed an unleashing of growth and optimism. There was no FED help in that rally. I thought Trump would surely get 8 years and we’d be off to a new and better time that might last a couple of decades.
We older people resist change and we are becoming less significant as consumers. The trend is electric and everything associated with it... right or wrong and I believe it to be wrong, prohibitively expensive and wasteful but it will persist none-the-less. The youngsters believe in it.
New ideas and applications are popping out of the woodwork just like they did in the energy crisis of the 70s / 80s. Some of those will stick. Really only a few did back then to the point it is hard to name them. This time it is much more fundamental, then we still had in mind ICE and fossil fuel for our future. All day the last few days I have been doing chores moving from one piece of equipment to another, they all burn diesel. I imagined what it would take to convert them all to electric. Massive spending and very complex. Worse is to imagine doing what I did without benefit of the equipment.
I don’t know where this ends but I see major change to how we fuel our daily lives. The change has been put in motion and right or wrong it will happen. Norway, a fossil fueled economy, has nearly eliminated ICE with most cars now EV. Making that change is the growth I see coming. Young people are all over it like white on rice. The choke hold on fossil fuel has been made even though nobody in their right mind can see how we can possibly make a total switch so fast. We are driving through a tunnel that has no light at the end, no map and no headlight but we are going very fast.
Where will all this new electricity come from? Some forms of nuclear will have to make a comeback. I expect it to be some form of modular, small and distributed, factory manufactured plants. Eventually the folly of wind, solar and battery storage will be seen. Blackouts and cold or steamy houses have a way of eventually forcing reality. What will be interesting is when they try to figure out emergency generators. Perhaps it will be a pile of batteries?
Going green is misguided but it has been made the dot.com of the times. The washout of unsuccessful efforts will be another 2000 crash eventually. From that will emerge the next apples of the electric age.
When I see a stock trailer pulled by a whirring truck or a tractor soundlessly cutting hay out in the field the change will be complete. I should live so long. It is amazing though what soaring OPEX can do for change though.
Yes, perhaps money can be made buying and selling into the bear market rallies? Oil stocks especially are over bought right now. There is very little that is a good value. Was looking at a conglomerate that holds a regional airline, but are airlines stocks going to get hit as well?