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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, May 15, 2022
(’Orc ‘is associated with the various hoards of Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

**denotes transcribed dialogue

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Bonus:
How Many Tanks Does Russia Really Have? And Where Are They?
Includes a brief description of Orc military unit conventions and example of how one unit had several name changes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA&t=619s

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War in Ukraine commenter 1:
About the self propelled (armored) heavy artillery vehicles, they are still in Germany and the Netherlands. The Ukrainian crews for them have started their training in a German training facility last week and at least the German vehicles are currently still being repaired because they aren’t from the active in use stock of the German army but from the ones in the repair shop do to some malfunctions.

They are expected to be finished repairing when the Ukrainian crews finish training as well (they train on actively in sue German army ones) It also would make no sense to send them before Ukraine has any trained crews because they are very high tech weapons and most of their damage potential would be wasted if they are just used as basic artillery by Ukrainian crews trained on soviet artillery.

Its better to train the Ukrainians properly on these and take a bit of waiting into account because the benefit of these things being properly used is very much worth it.

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War in Ukraine commenter 2:
The solution to trench warfare is something the Ukrainians now have (western artillery with air burst fuses.) The Soviet and Russian artillery rounds are mostly impact detonated which is nearly impossible to effectively destroy personnel in trenches with. they have to get a direct hit in a trench near personnel to injure or kill troops.

Air bursts rains a cone of shrapnel straight down from above the trench. Point detonation rounds have to land perfect. Air burst rounds just have to be close.

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**Ukraine Militia
Z dismissed the head of the UA militia for good reason. There have been lots of disastrous situation. Last week 109th and 110th were heavily decimated because of poor command and for lack or anti-tank weapons.

Militias from the center of the country were brought to the front without right equipment and no anti-tank weapons - so facing tanks they suffer heavy casualties. They then retreat, creating gaps in defense for Orcs to exploit.

**New general appointed. No information on him - looks like another Soviet general, might be minor changes, don’t expect much new.

‘Wild’ militias (ad hoc soldiers doing their own thing) are going away - merging with UA or regular militia

**Orc ability to replenish equipment & manufacturing abilities:
Orcs have enough ammo to conquer entire world without making more.
Have state of the art military manufacturing plants
Problem is lack of semiconductors to make replacements and new versions.
Weakness is lack of soldiers.

**Orc oil production:
25% lower production this fall means higher prices for Orc oil, which in turn, means high revenues.
Production price of oil in Orcland is $10-20bbl. So Orc $30 discount is still a huge profit.

Oil Production:
Embargoing Orc oil is counter-productive: increased price, same demand, means higher consumer prices. Only correct solution is to increase oil production thereby lowering the price.
Current US-led embargo will help destroy economies of the developed world
Increased NG and oil production can only come from US & Canada whose current policies limit oil production. Unless those policies change, prices will continue to go up, creating a recession, potentially even a depression.
(Currently the US has only a 30 day supply of diesel.)

Interest Rates:
Decision seems to have been made to destroy demand in the West. And that is going to happen by increasing interest rates - Fed Reserve followed by other banks. Will create popular backlash over the war, without any understanding that its the US & Canada bad policy

Food Production:
NG is main source for producing nitrogen fertilizer which is the best way to increase yields.
Increase in price or a production decrease will mean yields will go down. Population increases since the “green” revolution of the 60s can no longer be sustained.
Russia is largest producer of cheap NH3 and has cornered the market. Without that supply, farm production will drop.

(Edit: See US WH mandated halt to all railroad shipments of gran and fertilizer products and related in the US.)

(Edit: Also Ukraine is the only supplier of neon gas, other than China. Without neon gas, laser etching of chips does not happen. Semiconductor fabs will either get the gas from China or shut.)

Major Point:
This is not ‘just a regional war’. Everybody, all over the world, will be effected negatively by this war.

(Edit: And that’s why this war is worth spending to halt. FReepers need to take into consideration that whatever aid is given, goes to keep them eating and their dollar worth something. Among many other things everyone stands to lose, absent US aid.)

**Foreign equipment:
Bushmasters used near Popasna.
M777s in UA 44th Artillery Brigade. Fire team moved around and kept secretive, hard to track - reportedly used in bridging attack.
Armored M113 carriers from the Netherlands coming - better than nothing. Seen in the Severodonetsk Salient.
Only heavy equipment seen on battlefield so far.
Polish T-72s having reactive armor installed
German PzH 2000s not there yet.

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(Printed material - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
Summary: Quiet day - no major action today
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead - no changes.
- Lyman bridgehead - no changes today or yesterday.
- Bilogorivka bridgehead: destroyed

1. Kharkiv: Ukrainian troops are slowly pushing Russian side out - no changes today.

Donbas Salient:
2. Izyum bridgehead. It is extremely dangerous penetration by Russian troops that potentially could lead to large pocket for Ukrainian troops west of Donetsk. No changes today.
**Barvinkove is main objective of any Orc breakthrough
**If UA forces from Kharkiv attacked due west to Kupyansk/Dvorchina, they could cut off and destroy the Orc troops massed in south near Izyum

3. Lyman bridgehead. No changes today.

Severodonetsk Salient:
4. Popasna, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. Russian troops captured all of Rubizhne. Russian mercenaries - Wagner Group operates in Popasna, also Russian 57 brigade operates there as well. Confirmed capture of Popasna by Russian troops.
Russian troops advanced north of Popasna to village Komyshevakha. No new advances today.
**Main Orc focus.
**Orcs discussing seriously & openly the very heavy losses they suffered, during their failed Bilogorivka bridging attempt. Attacking unit commander is being blamed.
**No advances by Orcs north of Popasna means the situation is under UA control.
**Situation could change if Orcs found new troops, but their inventory seems exhausted now. No much left for troops in Russia.
**Looks like the UA will be able to hold the Severodonetsk Salient
**UA trench lines start south of Popasna to way south of Donetsk. Same for Orc lines. Looks like WWII here.

5. West of Donetsk: Avidyivka and Maryinka. Avdiyivaka - never ending attempts of the Russian side to break-through there. Yesterday, Russian troops captured all of Novobahmutivka. Today they captured nearby village Novoselivka Druha (Novoselivka-2).
**UA 25th stretched and became thing allowing Orc advance and creation of a pincher toward East.
**Avidyivka is important production of metallurgic coal, used in making steel. Only stopped production a week ago.
**Orc forces depleted: 1AK (1, 5, 15) not RGF; 100th B, 4 MC seems OK.

6. Vugledar is in Ukrainian hands. No changes today.

7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. Ukrainian strongholds are towns of Gulyaypole and village of Velyka Novosilka. Russian 19D is operating there. Russian troops are consolidating their gains. Also, 42D has been spotted in the area. The most northern group of Russian troops has been stopped before village of Vilne Pole. Ukranian side brought its 128 brigade and regiment Azov Kyiv to stop Russian advance there. Failed Ukrainian attack on village Neskuchne.
**Velyka Novosilka, Ukraine militia attack failed. Where commanded dismissed, no equipment, retreated to create Orc salient.

9. Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
**Neither side has resources to attack.
**Fresh water channel:
Made in 1950s - Northern Crimea was salty land semi desert. Fresh water pushed salt down and made farming possible. When Russia initially annexed the Crimea, Ukraine cut off fresh water channel and land became salty again.