Posted on 05/16/2022 6:36:28 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
“Send more Javelins!”
We finally agree on something.
2500 seems to be the general consensus.
—
is what they had at the start. ~1200 of which were in Ukraine, now counting down to zero. The rest are needed where they are - some in Kalingrad but most are in the Far East.
“Some back-of-the-napkin maths here, but very worth looking at, it suggests that open sources (eg @oryxspioenkop) have been capturing around 80% of Russia’s tank losses (of T-80s anyway). Which is pretty impressive.”
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1526254348619370496
And details:
https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1526199389764874240
As of March 15, the Russian 1st GTA reported 62 losses of its T-80U/UK/UE fleet. Given that the (12th and 13th tank regiment of the 4TD of the) 1st GTA is the sole user of the T-80U series tank, it gives us an unique chance to verify the data of @oryxspioenkop and his team. 1/n
There are currently 75 recorded Russian T-80U series lost per Oryx. Many pro-Rus guys (espicially in our Chinese-speaking world) would argue “there is a lot of duplications!” even through they can’t point out which records are duplicated. 2/n
The loss of Russian T-80Us can be devided into three time periods: 1) the lost during the offensive maneuver of the 1GTA in Sumy from Fe b 24 to March 22; 2) during the Ukr counterattack at Trokstyanets from Mar 23-25; and 3) during the battle of Izyum in April. 3/n
So I divided the total T-80U losses in three columns: 1) lost before March 15 (1GTA report date); 2)lost from March 15-22 (there will be a delay for the Ukr recorders); and 3)lost since March 23 (most-likely not revelant to the loss report). 4/n
The result is: whole Russia reported 62 T-80U losses till March 15, @oryxspioenkop reported 46 (74%). If we include all the losses tallied until March 22, then we have a total of 49(79%). 5/n
We shall not forget that there are hundreds of “unknown type of tanks” in Oryx’s list, 20 of which were recorded before March 22. Estimation: T-80U contributes to 11% of total recorded Russian Tank losses. Therefore 11% of these 20 tanks = 2 pieces are T-80U. 6/n
With these two added, we can draw a ROUGH conclusion that: Oryx’s counting does not exaggerate the actual loss of the Russian Army; on the contrary it represents some 77-82% of actual Russian loss. 6/n
If we imply this percentage in the whole data, we can infer the concurrent actual Russian tank loss between 818 (77%) and 871(77%). 7/n
Remember this is an rough result basing on merely one type of equipment and many assumptions. A more accurate approach is to count every type of tank losses geolocated to 1st GTA’s AOR as of March 15th. Oryx and his team may have the metadata to achieve this. 8/End
If ORYX has recorded about 80% of losses as noted in previous posting, then RuZZian tank losses could be 20% higher.
671 * 1.2 = 805!!!
Based on posting #23, we have some real quality data to back up ORYX catalogs.
Ignore RuZZian MOD releases. Total BS.
Some more RuZZian fertilizer.
“Two Russian BMPs were destroyed after entering a minefield.”
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1526231955813150720
“NEW: Ukraine has put 74 of the 90 U.S.-provided howitzer artillery pieces provided into the fight with Russia: senior U.S. defense official
The howitzers are proving “very effective” the official said. U.S. has sent 60 percent of 209,000 artillery rounds promised to Ukraine.”
“Ukrainian forces have allegedly crossed the Donets River near Staryi Saltov. This seems big if confirmed.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ur1nug/ukrainian_forces_have_allegedly_crossed_the/
Ukraine will be threatening RuZZian supply lines from Northern RuZZia soon.
“Ukraine adding 100K front line troops by moving its version of National Guard, Territorial defense force, to front line duties”
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ur0wl4/ukraine_adding_100k_front_line_troops_by_movin
“NEW: U.S. allies delivered 10 airlifts of military aid for Ukraine into the region in the past 24 hours: senior U.S. defense official
The weapons are coming from 7 different nations.”
2 Invaders who will not walk this earth again.
“Donetsk region. Ukrainian Third Force eliminates representatives of the Russian 1st Slavic brigade”
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uqrexs/donetsk_region_ukrainian_third_force_eliminates/
“About a dozen buses carrying Ukrainian Azovstal servicemen leave plant - Reuters witness”
“Ukrainian sources say exchanged for Russian prisoners but official information will be given today by president Zelensky.”
“According to preliminary information, about 300 militants left Azovstal. About 50 of them were wounded, taken to the Central District Hospital of Novoazovsk, where they will be provided with necessary medical care. The rest were taken away by buses in the direction of Yelenovka”
https://t.me/ukraine_now_eng/23355
I’ve read right here on FR that all of these heavy weapons were destroyed as soon as they entered Ukraine. All railways, roads and bridges are destroyed and there is no way to get these weapons to the front lines.
That’s too bad ... they started with two, but ended with only 1-1/2
“I’ve read right here on FR that all of these heavy weapons were destroyed”
Something you read on FR wasn’t true? Shocked, I am.
Read post #10.
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