Look, this guy is wrong.
I am sorry, but this conflict isn’t winding down. They will have to completely overrun all of Ukraine to end the conflict. Calling it victory, while the fight continues will make the Russians look even more inept than they have already. They will be unable to suppress the continued fighting unless they have total victory on the ground. Does anybody believe this will happen when they have already lost the drone war?
My impressions is that there will be a big push by the Russians when the ground is dry, and spring is over. However, unless they completely overrun Ukraine, the fighting will just go on forever like Afghanistan for the Russians all over again. So far Russia has failed at it’s only exit plan (quick victory).
It is very difficult to find the truth about what is happening in the Ukraine and I think we can all agree that representations in Western and Russian media are not trustworthy.
I am certain that the Russian offensive has not gone to plan and it has revealed many weaknesses within Russian forces ranging from basic maintenance of equipment to tactics and doctrine.
However, I am also certain that Russia still has large advantages in raw numbers as well as air power. While they still seem to be struggling to use this advantage the history of their military shows that they usually get it right after a poor start by purging inept leadership AND promoting people who show effectiveness.
Based on history and arithmetic the conflict still favors Russia despite the incredible ineptitude we have seen so far.
However, there are two big wildcards that should concern all of us. Putin’s hold on power (or lack thereof) could escalate the conflict AND the longer this conflict drags on the more likely our Western leaders will do something stupid to drag themselves (and us) into it.
This conflict is not only tragic for the participants but it represents a great danger to all of us. Probably the biggest danger in the last 30 years for the entire world.
Our leadership in the West (US and Europe) does not inspire confidence and China is positioned to use soft-power (and propaganda through our media) to broaden the conflict to further weaken the West.
There will be no “winners” in the Ukraine no matter who is declared the victor by whatever measurements people prioritize. The nation is wrecked (and taxpayers in the West will pay for it) even if Ukraine “wins”. If Russia prevails the world is a much less stable place ramping up another “cold war” further militarizing the nations between Europe and Russia even as the Euro’s continue to fund the Russian military via energy reliance.
Either way, the conflict is pushing Russia further into the sphere of China AND it is a good object lesson for China to evaluate their goals for Taiwan.
China is the winner of the mess in the Ukraine no matter what. A point lost on our media and punditry class.
While the obvious “villain” in this conflict is Putin, there is little doubt that interference and meddling in the Ukraine by neocons in the US and Europe certainly contributed to the corruption and current circumstances in Ukraine.
We are probably a few wrong moves from a nuclear war and few seem to realize it or comprehend how dangerous this conflict has become even as we rely on the “gang that can’t shoot straight” to respond.
In other words, if your assessment is correct (and it is logical), the danger for the West only grows as the conflict continues because Western leaders feel compelled to “do more” or “do something” even as hundreds of nuclear weapons are pointed at their own nations.
Neither you or I know the real state of afairs on the ground in the Ukraine.
There is no truth or end to the ongoing global propaganda war.
I know that both sides are lying. I know that our own government(Xi-O’Biden regime) wants to destroy the USA as we know it.
That is enough.
The Russians are not going to take all of Ukraine. Only Russian Speaking Separatist Republics. Ukraine will not get them back because they’ve already seceded (since 2014)