The main reason I do not see the crash of 2008 is because of the housing shortage right now. In 2008 there were 20 million less illegals.
How many homes and apartments have been built since then?
Mexicans live like 15 to a house.
I was just making that point to Mr. GG2. In Atlanta we have a shortage of houses especially in the $300,000 price range which is our neighborhood. Not one house for sale at the moment. We expect to sell in one day when ours goes on the market.
In many places in the country now a single family existing house is over $500K. A new construction 2000 sq ft home in that same area is over $650K. So, unless you are moving from an area even more expensive than that, a single family house is unaffordable based on 5.25% mortgage rates. So, there are going to be less people moving to some places in the country.
People will continue to move south. Less will be moving to Boise now that the price of a house in Boise has doubled in the last four years. Even though the current price is still cheaper than SanFran or LA.
Same story here in NH. We have had a major influx from the NYC/NJ/CT area into NH. That will slow down to some extent because the price discount is not as large as it once was.
People are still going to move to TX, FL, SC, AZ, NC and other snowbird locations. The baby boomers are still retiring for another ten years.
Probably 40 MILLION.