Posted on 04/08/2022 9:38:36 AM PDT by blam
Russia is acting like Russia again.
Not the Soviet Union.
Historically, they always felt threatened by anyone on their borders, and that often led to war. That is because a good number of those on their borders felt threatened by Russia, and that led to war.
Couple that with the Third Rome doctrine, pan Slavic supremacy, and a good dose of narcissism and the world has a problem.
But look at it from Sweden and Finland’s view. Russia has threatened them both with attacks, said they should not be allowed to chose their own foreign policy, and must give up territory in order to make Russia feel safe.
And two of Finland’s trading partners, Estonia and Lithuania, are being told they have not right to exist and when they get invaded it is their fault.
Just like Georgia and Ukraine.
So, if you are Finland and Sweden, what do you do? Sit back and hope you don’t get attacked? Cave, and hope you get eaten last? Try to resist by yourself?
I manage people. Have for a bit now. The only way this stops is if it gets to painful for Russia to keep starting wars and blaming the people who they hit.
A neutral Ukraine is not going to exist in ten to twenty years.
They probably won’t anyway. The best they can hope for is a partition.
I don’t want Ukraine in NATO. To corrupt.
But if they want to be independent and not a proxy of Russia they will have to ally with someone in the region. Look at the map, and ask who that might be.
Yea, to “Europeans” there is no war unless they see it on BBC or the fake news outlet du jour. To Russians and half of Ukraine this war has been going to for almost a decade. I guess what’s going to happen is pretty predictable. If they are aggressive and powerful in the future then you have a nice setup for another war (not that I accept your premise but if I do then it still doesn’t make much sense). All roads lead to war with this thinking.
Good post.
Well, within the small area within artillery range of the former line of demarcation, which is considerable less than the eastern half of Ukraine.
After their defeat in the Russo-Japanese War the Russians re-built their armed forces and became considerably more aggressive. But that was with enormous loans from France to help Russia as a counterweight to Germany. I don't think anyone will be stepping up to do that with Russia today, although China might help a little. With sanctions Putin would have to re-Stalinize Russia's economy to rebuild on that scale, and I doubt he can do it. But since NATO has made it plain they will not get involved outside of a NATO member being attacked by Russia, it behooves smaller countries like Sweden and Finland to join now.
I don’t buy “half of Ukraine” at all. They may have lived more or less normal lives, but, people in Ukraine outside of the war zone were still KEENLY aware and concerned about “the war in the East”, and not any less so than people in almost all of Russia. Over the 8 years there have been plenty of deaths and injuries of relatives, friends, friends of friends, etc., on the Ukrainian side, and many men are ex-vets and such, plus other civilian connections...
I agree closely with the 1st 2/3 of that, but then diverge a bit.
Putin may be the immediate problem, but, in truth he’s just a symptom. Russia has returned to its historical pattern (just as I believe Europe without NATO would revert to ITS historical pattern(s), given a bit of time. But... with nukes, the next go-round.)
A long term question is “How can Russia beat its addiction to Putin-style rulers?” Shorter term questions are Ukraine’s survival and (possibly) getting Europe through next winter (plus food shortage regions).
I agree about Europe. Spot on analysis with that.
How to change the Russian paradigm is a good question. But any lasting change will have to be their idea and not something imposed on them.
“Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was…” is understatement right up there with “The war has has not necessarily developed to Japans advantage.”
I only meant the zone of actual fighting or shelling. I was in Lviv a few years ago, they were obviously quite keenly aware of the fighting in the east.
Agree. ATM - Norway fortunately is staying neutral.
Yep. Russia will learn from this wad. They'll execute anyone stealing from their military. That's what the Soviets did back in the day.
After the Ukraine War - whatever its outcome - Russia will be morally bankrupt, financially moribund, bled of its brightest, an international pariah with an even longer NATO border, a vassal to perfidious Red China, demographically still on the decline, still engaged in low-level fighting on several fronts.
Regards,
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