Posted on 03/23/2022 4:55:02 AM PDT by blam
ABOUT to crash? The smoldering wreckage is just about everywhere where we are. New construction is proceeding. New builds were “from the low 300’s” and within a couple months the billboards changed to “from the low 500s” and still selling like a bargain.
Why are people so willing to go into impossible debt?
The article contradicts itself. On one hand the housing market high prices is forecast not to continue but on the other supply will continue to be limited while demand remains high.
Excellent!
We need a Serf Amerika.
The market is insane here in Charlotte. I can easily afford to buy and want to buy, but I refuse to at these absurd prices. I know at least two other people here who are in the same boat.
Despite what BofA is predicting here, if interest rates really are increased substantially and we do have a recession as many predict, demand for houses is going to plummet. People are already feeling the pinch of inflation. Wages are already not keeping up with the real rate of inflation. Consumers are not going to have the money to buy houses or like me, will simply refuse to buy until the bubble bursts…….and it is a bubble.
Housing prices will still increase significantly as supply is stupidly low and the fewer people that want to buy a new home also means fewer supply of homes since ~80% of buyers are existing owners and with nearly all recent buyers in fixed mortgages and high incomes (or all cash), almost no risk of a repeat of 2007-2010 here in housing. And there just isn’t that much new home supply - and the cost of those is significantly higher than existing stock.
If its good enough for the country to be in debt for $30+ Trillion, what’s $500k? Show of hands that think the national debt will ever be paid........
It is kind of like a situation where there are record low interest rates but nobody will lend anything to anyone with a credit score under 800.
“In other words, 2022 will likely be the last hurrah of the US housing market.”
The lumber Broker is sad
Sellers market for sure.
Is this a bubble that's going to burst or a sign of more of the same? If people keep coming, why would the price of a house go down?
“Russia is one of the largest lumber exporters in the world, which could pressure prices even higher”
Russia exports a lot of timber. They DO NOT export a lot of finished lumber.
My company bought finished boards from Russian mills(at least we did until a couple weeks ago). We purchased 1x4 & 1x6 mostly run to T&G patterns. That is because no western grading agencies will go into Russia and certify their lumber according to North American Lumber Standards. All of the boards were NO grade stamp. However, the quality of the Nordic Spruce wood fiber was the best in the world.
With companies like ours no longer buying Russian lumber, it will go to other places in the world. It will go to the Middle East, China, India, Pakistan, and other European countries.
This will mean that not as much Canadian lumber will end up going to China. It will mean that not as much US lumber will go to India and Pakistan.
The Russian sawmills are not going to shut down. They are just going to sell their product to whoever will pay the most for it. We were, now we are not.
“If people keep coming, why would the price of a house go down?”
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL
If there is a shortage of houses in Nashville, then prices will remain high. This has nothing to do with the price in Cleveland, Syracuse, Detroit, St Louis and Portland, OR.
During the Great Recession the price of oil was high. The horizontal drilling for oil boom was ongoing. So, places like Williston, ND boomed. So did Midland and Odessa, TX. Houston did Okay. However, the biggest lumber yard in metro Detroit went out of business. They took Commerica Bank for about $12M. Some metro areas got crushed, while others were ok.
Nashville, has been a boom town for several years. That area may be fine. People in the US are still moving south and west to some extent. However, the largest change in the last couple years is the exodus from California. CA residents keep moving to WA, AZ, ID, CO, MT, UT, TX and several other states. Prices have more than doubled in Boise because of it.
People from the NYC area continue to move to FL, SC, NC, NH, ME & VT. There was another article posted today about 35% occupancy of office buildings in Manhattan. People are not coming back to NYC. They are going to continue to work from home at least part time.
The covid restrictions in many of these liberal cities has made the real estate values in states like Florida boom.
We ain’t seen nuthin yet. Trump will waltz back into the WH in 2024. The Dem economic and cultural debacle is only getting started.
Add to that the costs to repair/replace failing roofs, plumbing, HVAC and foundations before significant updates can happen.
Out of my last 10 inspections, 6 buyers haven't even set foot in this state much less the house they're buying.
There is a herd panic in progress....people have no sense of value or cost.....they're qualified for insane loan amounts and by God, they're going to buy at full qualified amounts even if that means choosing the best of the worst today rather than hold back for better choices a little further down the road. Add to that the fact that the overheated market has attracted a large crop of newly minted real estate "professionals" and home flippers whose mantras appear to be "money over morals".
It's the perfect combination of expectations of instant gratification in a mass marketing society.
Location, location, location.
For most places, time will determine the direction that community goes. Most will crash and some will continue to boom.
You ought to have seen Washington DC back 12 years ago when Obastard got in. Remember the shovel ready jobs? Well in DC they were building like hell.
These stupid arrogant elites have no clue what it is really like out here outside of the asylum.
Washington DC should really be nuked. It is already contaminated with perverts, scum and snooty bastards, so might as well sterilize it.
I know. Let’s bring in millions of third world people and put them on welfare with free housing...
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