Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5

ISW ^ | March 5, 3:00 PM EST | Fredrick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Katya Stepanenko

[Drew68]

The reality is that Russia is on the verge of annihilating the bulk of the Ukrainian army, most of which has been stationed in the east to fight the DPR/LPR.

See that blue oval in the east? That's the Ukrainian army. They're about to be encircled, cut off, and wiped out at which point, Russia will reenforce and Kiev will be attacked from the southeast.

[gleeaikin]

Here is a situation summary from the ISW article itself.

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, and possibly Odesa in the next 24-48 hours. Russian troops did not launch major ground offensive operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, on the other hand, conducted a counter-offensive that reportedly penetrated to the Ukrainian-Russian border.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted no major offensive operations against the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the past 24 hours;
Russian troops continued to encircle, bomb, and shell Mariupol;
Russian forces east of Kharkiv and in northern Luhansk Oblast appear to be trying to link up;
Russian troops around Kherson city are likely preparing to resume offensive operations against Mykolayiv and ultimately Odesa; and
Russian naval infantry in Crimea continue to prepare for amphibious operations, which would most likely occur near Odesa.

Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
Supporting effort 2—Mariupol; and
Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward.

[gleeaikin]

This Russian map is a lot more optimistic for Russians than the ISW prepared map at Comment 17. I’m inclined to disbelieve it as optimistic propaganda. Who prepared it and where is it being publicised?

[CarolinaReaganFan]

i don’t know where it came from.
there’s more issues than just optimism.
1-My uderstanding is that us military uses four different definitions of “terrain control” .dunno their def
2-most maps have a date stamp but not always a time stamp,,a lot can change in 24 hrs
3-some data/info may simply lag by a day or so
.
.
that russian map is speculative in that predicts future troop movements

[alternatives?]

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