Hold DJT's beer...
The Soviet Union fell apart because it failed economically and socially.
The Russian State will not cease to exist; rather the current government is likely to cease to exist.
United forever in friendship and labor
Our glorious republics will ever endure!
The great Soviet Union will live through the ages
The joy of her people, their fortress secure!
Remember China is watching. China is learning. And China will buy from Russia when all else won’t.
It sounds like pretensions to know what Putin wants or is doing.
Barring WWIII, I expect Ukraine to still exist at the conclusion of this. Its borders may be different and its government certainly will be. It will be a government deferential to Moscow with a commitment to eschew NATO, or other foreign entanglements, in its constitution. Russian troops may remain in Ukraine to “rebuild” and “secure the peace”.
That doesn’t sound like Moscow, or even Putin, losing, to me.
I think this, because the President of the United States is on Putin’s side. Both Putin and Biden intend to make hay out of this while it plays out.
It’s an interesting take. But even if your prediction is correct, it will take years and there are other bad actors in the world that will benefit while the world becomes more dangerous. A nuclear armed dictator with nothing to lose is always dangerous. In the 80s, it was spending that ultimately was the catalyst that broke the Soviet Union. Today, the weapon is going to be Revenue. If China is the only Russian customer in the world, Russia (and their federation) should fall once again. But there has to be commodity supply to fill the gap. America can provide most of that commodity gap to starve Russian revenue.
Russia is now 81% Russian. If Putin just wants the Russian speaking areas of the Ukraine digesting it won’t be a serious problem for Russia in the immediate future. If he aims at more than that it might.
The propaganda is getting deep.
Well, no. Had any of the republics' representatives claimed their "right to leave" while Stalin as in charge, said representatives would have been labeled "counter-revolutionaries not presenting the true wishes of the people." Then they would have been shot.