There is something else going on because this move is very out of character for Putin in that he has gambled everything on a 50/50 proposition at best and the downsides for him and Russia appear to outweigh any short-term gains.
The Oligarchs in Russia don’t support this move as much of their wealth is in the West.
It risks his energy exports to Europe and pushes them to a partner they historically distrust and have had conflict with (China). It risks exposing his military as a less than formidable force.
It erases any traction Putin had on the world stage or within the UN. It harms Putin’s popularity at home. Putin’s “reputation” is in tatters.
We are missing something here because this move is irrational based on what we know. Putin had achieved much of what he wanted prior to invading and it looks like an “all-in” hand in poker with a pair of 7’s.
Too many threads here on FR about Putin involve some other issue such as wokeism or other social issues but as a pure strategic problem I don’t understand why he did this....
He is a vain man who tries to rule with an iron fist but he has always been pretty careful. This is anything but careful.
It may be that the extended drought going on around the world has had a major impact on the Russian agricultural system. Rather then negotiate payment for foodstuffs, which would cost more treasure than available, why not steal the store?
The only thing I can think of here is gross miscalculation based his misread of America’s temporary weakness under Biden, his belief that the West’s dependence on Russian oil would paralyze any meaningful response, and possibly bad information fed to him about Russian military prowess that have pushed him to this gamble.
Looks like right now he is escalating after his initial lack of success, which is essentially reinforcing failure (remember Vietnam?).
What is concerning are recent veiled nuclear threats emanating from the Kremlin. Those weapons are to be used in the event of an existential threat to Russia, which obviously Ukraine is not. But this debacle is an existential threat to Putin’s power. It becomes increasingly hard to see how he can extract himself from Ukraine and keep his position.