I had initially thought it was a VEI 4 or 5, so was surprised when I read it might be a 6. How long does it usually take to figure it out for certain?
There are a WHOLE bunch of panic punks all over the net now “predicting” what is going to happen, and all that.
The best prelim estimate I get is that it will cool the southern hemisphere. How much? A whole .00111 degree C. Thats all. Wont even notice it. And even that is a guess for now...not even close to 1 degree F increase.
As for the blast, they got a rough idea and it will be until they can get around that thing and take a look to determine.
Its gonna be about a 4-5 VEI. The ash cloud did not go up very high at all. It was the steam that got shot way the hell up.