LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Globalism / Great Reset –
SUMMARY –
The WHO has decided to label all vaccine skeptics as a “major killing force” in the world and anti-science.
“Anti-vaccine activism, which I actually call anti-science aggression, has now become a major killing force globally.” -
Peter Hotez, Professor and Dean at Texas Childrens hospital and Chair in Tropical Pediatrics
OBSERVATION – By now it is apparent that the wuhan jab is fast becoming as lethal as the virus itself. By attacking honest, independent research (and peer reviewed at that) as well as countries like Denmark that ceased pushing the jab on those under 50 because of the lethal reaction just exposes the hypocrisy of the WHO and cements its place in the GGR realm of dictating global medical policy via cancelling and vilifying those who don’t accept the narrative.
Wuhan virus –
The Florida Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that a grand jury requested by Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to investigate COVID-19 manufacturers could proceed.
OBSERVATION – Key issue here once again is the demonstration of fraud by Pfizer and Moderna regarding the safety claims of their so called vaccines. In the emergency authorization, these companies have been able to hide behind a fig leaf of protection from lawsuits – with a conviction of deliberate fraud that fig leave disappears, and they are fully open to civil (and potentially criminal – though the DoJ won’t follow up on it) lawsuits. It would also throw a monkey wrench it continued ‘vaccination’ pushes for additional ‘boosters’ as well as their attempts to create other mRNA products for other diseases.
Economy –
According to Bloomberg, citing an ag report via forecaster Maxar, winter wheat fields across southwest Kansas, northwest Texas, and Oklahoma lack snow cover, increasing the incidence of winter kill. Snow cover on fields insulates the wheat and protects crops from cold.
“Wheat will be at risk of winter kill in areas lacking adequate snow cover – most notably in eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
Commodity Weather Group warns that 20% of the national winter #wheat acreage will be susceptible to winter kill this week, including 45% of the hard red winter wheat crop, but that could rise to 30% of national crop in a worst-case scenario if snowfall fails further east.
OBSERVATION – Wheat production is still trying to recover from all the other hits it took during the last growing season. These are worse case scenarios but the concerns are very real. Losses would ensure continued high prices and inflation given the many items wheat is necessary like bread, pasta and other food products.
Inflation fell to a 5.5% annual rate in November, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index. Bureau of Economic Analysis say it is a sign that inflationary pressures are abating in the face of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to slow economywide spending by hiking interest rates. Nevertheless, inflation is running much hotter than the central bank’s target and dinging household purchasing power.
Core PCE inflation, a measure of inflation that strips out energy and food prices and is generally less volatile, is clocking in at a 4.7% year-over-year rate.
OBSERVATION – Given that the feds over estimated job creation by one million just before the 2022 midterms give me pause to accept much of what they are saying concerning inflation and its trends. I’ll hold this out at arms length for now.
U.S. total new vehicle retail sales are expected to decline in December as high vehicle prices and rising borrowing costs pushed consumers to cut back spending, a report from industry consultants J.D. Power-LMC Automotive showed on Wednesday.
The average monthly payment for a new vehicle loan in December was $718, up $47 from a year ago, per the report.
OBSERVATION – Not unexpected – why buy a $60+K car/truck at outrageous interest rates. Theres no way on God’s green earth I could afford that level of payment.
The probability of a downturn in 2023 climbed to 70% in December, according to a Bloomberg monthly survey of economists, up from 65% in November. The poll, conducted between Dec. 12-16, surveyed 38 economists.
“The U.S. economy will likely fall into a recession over the next year if it is not already in one,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. “The silver lining is that the mismatches between supply and demand that have fueled historically high inflation should be much less of a problem by a year from now.”
Officials also indicated that economic growth will slow sharply next year and that unemployment will march substantially higher to a rate of 4.6% as rate hikes bring the U.S. to the brink of a recession. The Fed expects the jobless rate to remain elevated in 2024 and 2025 as steeper rates continue to take their toll by pushing up borrowing costs.
OBSERVATION – Most certainly the “mismatches” will narrow simply because businesses will be shutting down.
This also indicates that economic malaise will continue for an extended period of time.
Invasion of Illegals –
The Biden administration expanded the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program after taking office in 2021, doubling the number of recipients from just over 400,000 to over 900,000. Democratic lawmakers and advocates are pushing the administration to expand the program further in 2023. According to Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), the administration could expand the TPS program without congressional approval. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Now that the barn doors of our border have been left open, the next thing for the regime is to some how ‘legitimize’ keeping the illegals here. TPS as well as DACA are some of the tools that permit them to work around our laws. With such a volume, even court rulings against these expansions if against biden probably will never be enforced given the depth of corruption of the swamp.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden delivered a Christmas address on Thursday but did not speak the name of “Jesus” or “Christ.”
Some opine that in doing so he would have burst into flames. . .
POLITICAL FRONT –
SUMMARY – It is readily apparent that the GOP in the senate has turned from red to purple with 18 senators voting with the democrats to pass the abomination of a $1.7 Trillion dollar CR through the end of FY 2023. For the American this signals a new round of capitulation to the leftists in congress and serves to negate what little lead they have in the House as there are eGOP RINOS infesting that part as well.
It looks like the democrat release of Trump’s tax returns is turning out to be a big nothing burger. Many would love to see a similar rectal examination of those in congress (on BOTH sides of the aisle).
Lake’s lawsuit against Maricopa county and the plethora of illegal (yes, they failed to follow clearly stated state law) and highly questionable ethically other actions has made its closing arguments. In his closing argument , the Maricopa county attorney blamed all the problems on the Lake campaign’s emphasis to show up and vote in person on election day. Basically it’s the voters fault stating - “you reap what you sow,” meaning that Lake’s campaign lost because of strategy, not because of a printer malfunction error that rendered the ballots incapable of being machine read, long lines that led to voters being unable to vote, or other malignantly incompetent actions on behalf of Maricopa County officials.
BTW, the Maricopa attorney is Thomas Liddy, the son of G. Gordon Liddy, one of the main characters in Watergate.
OBSERVATION – One of the biggest admissions from Maricopa election officals was the fact that printer settings were changed on the day of the election – an act that didn’t occur in any other precinct.
China –
Philippine ministry of defense ordered the military to strengthen its presence in the South China Sea after Chinese naval militia was caught operating close to a strategic Philippine-held Spratly Islands. The Chinese naval militia was reportedly conducting dredging and construction operations on four uninhabited reefs and shoals. Beijing denied the claims and dismissed the accusations as “unfounded.”
OBSERVATION – China has been conducting this dredging and building operations in the fuzzy claimed areas of the South China Sea for a good decade now and is using its muscle to continue the expansion to solidify its claims on the region.
39 Chinese aircraft trespassed into its claimed air defense zone yesterday. This is a very high number and indicates an increase in harassing flights. Thursday’s incursion involved four H-6 bombers, 21 fighters jets and support aircraft.
North/South Korea –
Seoul said Pyongyang launched two short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. The latest show of force came days after US-South Korea drills in the region and amid heightened tensions. The latest launch comes just days after US-South Korea military drills included flying nuclear-capable bombers near the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea views such military exercises as an invasion rehearsal.
OBSERVATION - NK continuing annoy SK (and the US to a degree) with these launches. While they don’t pose an immediate threat, the do give NK practice and opportunities to test refinements. I remember when nearly all NK’s missiles exploded on the launch pad or shortly after liftoff. Those days are long gone.
Japanese media as well as other sources reported that North Korea had shipped artillery shells and other munitions to Russia last month.
The claims sparked further tensions, with North Korea denying the allegations and calling them “groundless.”
OBSERVATION – In a way of speaking, NK may be correct. Latest intel suggests that the shipments were directed towards Wagner Group Mercenaries and not ‘technically’ to Russia as WG is an independent entity.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
The Russian Federation warns Greece about the consequences if Athens decides to transfer the Russian S-300 systems to Ukraine, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
A fire broke out yesterday onboard the Russian Navy’s sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, which has been undergoing a major overhaul in the country’s northwestern Murmansk region for more than four years, and which was just moved into a new and improvised drydock earlier this year. This is not the first incident of its kind on the flattop in the course of this work, with another blaze having broken out on the ship in 2019. The vessel had also suffered another fire while anchored off Turkey in 2009, which led to the death of a member of the crew.
According to Russian media, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov invited additional countries to the “West 2023 maneuvers” and Union Shield 2023. This exercise is supposed to run every four years, and last occurred in 2021. Historically, only Belarus and Russia took part in Zapad and Union Shield exercises in September. Since the time frame has been condensed from four to two years, some are raising concern that this may serve as a cover for a Russian/Belarus invasion.
Logistics –
- Iran is working to tighten its defense relationship with Russia and to continue to supply it with advanced weaponry, Mossad chief David Barnea warned on Thursday. “We warn against Iran’s future intentions, which they are trying to keep secret, to deepen and expand the supply of advanced weapons to Russia, to expand the uranium enrichment project and to intensify their attacks against friendly Muslim countries in the region,”
- NK is reportedly sending munitions to Wagner Group.
Economic Impact –
- According to a Reuters report, Russia intends to start buying China’s yuan as a foreign exchange reserve beginning in 2023. Moscow is set to accelerate de-dollarization in an effort to reduce its dependency on Western finance and mitigate Western sanctions over its war with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Moves to go off the dollar are an attack on the dollar. China has been facilitating the move for other countries as well.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting increased along the eastern front from Svatove southward towards Donetsk, with associated increase in Russian artillery support.
Increasing attention given to Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea. Some have noted that in the past, such activity was a precursor to missile strikes. There is little concern that Russia is going to launch an amphibious attack. Currently, its amphibious ships are serving to shuttle material across the Azoz sea / Black Sea due to the closure of the Kerch Bridge.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Significant increase in Russian naval activity around Sevastopol have been noted by OSINT observers. Most of the activity appears to be related to submarine activity. In the recent past subs have been active just before launching cruise missile attacks and this may be deployments in preparation for a suspected Monday attack.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
Russian based news report - “There was an explosion in Melitopol, a car was blown up. According to Russian sources, “saboteurs blew up a car where two persons of Russian special services were driving. Both were seriously injured, one of them had a limb torn off.””
OUTLOOK ——
While monitoring Russian naval activity that some consider abnormal (or rather more ‘active’) the situation on the ground remains relatively unchanged. Weather conditions have yet to have temperatures drop enough to start freezing the ground which would permit resumption of cross country maneuvering by either side. Russia does appear to be trying to prepare for the inevitable Ukrainian resumption of the offensive by improving defenses – however many observers note that they are poorly designed and constructed based on WW1 and WW2 methodologies.
Belarus -
RUMINT – Reports of Liga (Wagner) mercenaries being deployed near Krupeyki village in Belarus to stage a provocation on the border.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said a recent combat readiness check was focused on the west and northwest border. Belarus had initially declared the exercise a counter-terrorism drill but is now framing it as a defensive drill.
OBSERVATION - Ukraine-Belarus border is a swampy forest with few roads. During both World Wars neither German nor Russian/Soviet Armies tried to overcome this area. Only key avenues of approach into Ukraine are along the narrow corridor towards Kyiv (which proved devastating to Russia) and the western region, where the corridor incorporates parts of Latvia and Poland (a sure way to get them in the fight)
Israel –
See Russia, logistical issues for Mossad’s warning about Iran supplying drones and other potential munitions to Russia.
The Israeli Air Force struck a clandestine drone research and development site belonging to the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group in Syria earlier this week, according to a Thursday report by the Saudi-funded al-Arabiya network and its sister channel al-Hadath.
Citing unnamed sources, al-Arabiya said Israeli jets struck the Hezbollah site at the al-Qusayr military air base, close to the border with Lebanon, and the northwestern Syrian city of Homs overnight between Sunday and Monday. The strike was not previously reported.
OBSERVATION – Though the strike was noted from other sources, here are details on the target.
More info on another recent IAF airstrike. Late Monday, Israeli jets attacked militia targets in Syria. The primary objective was an Iranian air defense battery that was recently installed near the Damascus International Airport.
OBSERVATION – Apparently this ADA battery also had Syrian soldiers operating the system. It is likely that the battery was really a Syrian unit, but given over to try to protect Hezbollah facilities and activities at the Damascus airport and nearby areas.
Iran –
Protests continue but are getting progressively smaller and more limited to the Kurdish region of Iran.
Syria -
RUMINT – A confrontation may be building in Syria as Russia and the Syrian regime are sending military reinforcements to northern Aleppo, and Turkey is threatening to crush the northern regions at a depth of 30 km.
Known - The Pro-Assad forces forces sent military reinforcements to the vicinity of the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat
OBSERVATION – Not sure how this will play out, if they get into a scrum in N Syria it could get interesting fast. Russia has a diminished presence from pulling troops out for Ukraine and Turkey has already embarrassed Syrian forces in attacks led by their drones.
Misc of Note –
Winter Storm Elliott is continuing to bear down on the eastern half of the US, with dangerously low wind chill temperatures and blizzard conditions. So far, no major power outages noted – only localized ones. Texas reportedly had its generation assets winterized following the disastrous blizzard of a couple years ago and grid managers are anticipating high demand, but no grid failures.
OBSERVATION - Watching the last of Winter Storm Elliott fade away here in the redoubt, with temperatures CLIMBING over night from -15 to +3 (current).
Failures to be prepared for weather conditions like Elliott are almost inexcusable. Yet many are having troubles. Please do some research of what may impact your location and keep prepared for it. Granted, Elliott is being called a ‘generational’ storm, but there can be no guarantees that it won’t repeat in the future.
Both sides are ramping up -= what could possibly go wrong?
Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas, took a couple days off in celebration.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Germany’s Federal Network Agency, a watchdog that regulates electricity and gas in the country, said the plan would allow the power grid operators to remotely limit people’s use of heat pumps and electric car chargers next winter without the user’s consent.
The plans, set to be in place by January 2024, will give energy grid operators the power to artificially curb electricity demand if consumption outstrips supply.
Die Welt reported that the plans had been drawn up in the wake of the German energy grid being put under more strain due to the increasing use of electric car chargers and people using supposed ‘environmentally friendly’ electricity-intense heat pumps in their homes.
The increased demand cannot be caught up to with increased supply, meaning the government believes that remote consumption restrictions are the only solution.
OBSERVATION – Note the last line – cannot catch up with increased supply. This is quite the intentional lie. Germany has been carrying the water for much of the GGR’s beta testing efforts to enforce its global warming goals and is reaping the consequences in a major way this winter – in part due to loss of gas from Russia. Europe HAS the resources, they have just been locked away by the globalists to force their green agenda on the populus.
Wuhan virus –
See China below re: 250 Million infected
Economy –
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its food price inflation estimate to between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2023. The USDA increased its forecast for egg prices in 2023 to 4% to 5%, citing the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak affecting U.S. poultry farmers.
OBSERVATION – This is highly dependent on things going well this next year, with no other disasters (natural or man made) impacting agriculture.
Lumber prices hit an all-time low after homebuilder sentiment tumbled for the twelfth straight month in December. The building commodity peaked at $1,336 per thousand board feet in late February, but has settled to around $379, as of Dec. 22, to its lowest level since the pandemic in June 2020.
The price of lumber is down by 72 percent from this earlier year’s peak, largely due to rising mortgage rates, a decline in housing activity, low builder confidence, and fears of recession, which together have lowered sales.
OBSERVATION - These lower prices are unlikely to springboard the housing market back into the positive side. Inflation in general and the high mortgage rates for new loans will continue to keep the market depressed and the verge of implosion.
Invasion of Illegals –
NOTE - The rampaging Kurds in Paris should bring pause to Americans here with the surge of illegals filling our country. Many have noted that they are predominantly military aged men. What would stop them from starting similar rioting?
U.S. Customs and Border Protection waited until Christmas weekend to announce that it encountered 233,740 migrants illegally crossing the southwest border in November, as overwhelmed border agents say the problem has become unmanageable.
“Today, even before the end of Title 42, apprehensions are eight times higher than manageable,” Brandon Judd, the president of the National Border Patrol Council, wrote in an opinion piece on Dec. 20.
The 233,740 encounters in November 2022 is the third highest monthly total on record, behind the record 241,136 monthly encounters in May and 235,785 in April. It is up one percent from October’s elevated level of 231,294. But it’s up 33.68 percent from 174,845 a year ago November; and up 224.13 percent from 72,113 in November 2020.
CW2/Domestic violence –
NOTE – The vandalism/damage to power substations may be tests by elements to see how easy to shut power down or identify efficient ways of doing so while also gauging law enforcement response times.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
New Twitter File drop expanding on other govt agencies using the FBI as an intermediary to direct Twitter to censor posts.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, Twitter CEO Elon Musk appeared on the All-In podcast and said that “every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true.”
“Is there a conspiracy theory about Twitter that didn’t turn out to be true?” Musk said. “So far they’ve all turned out to be true, and if not more true than people thought.”
OBSERVATION – Nothing will happen, no one go to jail over the use of twitter to silence americans a la 1984.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Peter A. Thompson ruled against Kari Lake and in favor of the defendants on all counts on December 24 2022.
OBSERVATION – Surprised and not surprised. The liberal ( and some conservative ) judges cannot allow the wall to crack on probable voter fraud.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
14,000 power customers in Tacoma, Washington experienced blackouts after three power substations were vandalized on Christmas Day. The Pierce County Sheriff’s Department said two Tacoma Public Utilities substations and one Puget Sound Energy substation were vandalized. The department said it is unknown if the incidents were coordinated. This follows six similar attacks on power substations in the state in November and attacks on Duke Energy substations in North and South Carolina earlier this month.
OBSERVATION – Hard to rule out potential terror test runs, but other potentials include ‘copy cat’ vandalism.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Biden administration has neglected to pay numerous National Guard troops their year-end paycheck on time during the week of Christmas.
This delay is taking place after the House approved the controversial additional $45 billion aid package to Ukraine, and a $1.7 trillion spending plan.
OBSERVATION – Just more evidence of the callousness the regime has towards the military in general, and the National Guard in specific.
China –
Taiwan Ministry of Defense - 71 PLA aircraft and 7 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected in our surrounding region yesterday. 47 crossed the median line in the Taiwanese strait and entered the ADZ. This is the largest incursion to date. Also, a large number of Chinese naval vessels are also participating in the military exercises, including China’s carrier strike groups.
OBSERVATION – This level of activity by the Chinese air force is pushing the threat indicators deep into the yellow zone. Described by China as ‘war drills’, they indicate that China may be transitioning from harassment to more of a very direct threat mode. In short, these drills may be setting the stage for either an aggressive blockade of the island or an outright invasion.
Difficult to confirm reports that over the course of the past week, as many as 250 million Chinese have come down with wuhan. That’s nearly 1/4th the country’s population. This follows China’s loosening of their ‘zero-covid’ program of aggressive lockdowns.
OBSERVATION - The persistence of infections continues to be a drag on its economy. Things have gotten so bad that companies are moving production to other countries with more dependable conditions .
North/South Korea –
NK intruded into SK airspace with as many as 5 drones, one of which flew as far south as Seoul. SK military was caught off guard and may have only downed one of the drones. SK retaliated by sending a drone of its own across the border into NK, and returned it safely. The last time NK did anything like this was about 5 years ago.
OBSERVATION - This is clearly an embarrassment to the SK govt and miliary – essentially being caught flat footed and having an ineffective response to the incursion. The harsh reality of modern drone warfare – seen so much lately in Ukraine – is a dramatic change of actions by NK.
This escalation is particularly dangerous, though there is no indicators of an impending attack by the north. This could indicate a new stage of incitement by the north to supplement its very busy missile launching operations of 2022.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced over the weekend that Russia was ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine, but complained that Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks.
OBSERVATION - This ‘offer’ is considered to be disingenuous and an delay attempt to allow Russia breathing space to reconsolidate and reinforce its miliary for an anticipated attempt to resume the offensive to take the Donbas region of Ukraine.
Vice-President of “Vladmirsky Standart” company and MP of Vladimir legislative assembly Pavel Antov has died after falling out of the window of hotel in Rayagada, Odisha, India
OBSERVATION – In America it is Arkancide, in Russia its falling out windows or down stairs.
Russia is warning the U.S. to quit getting involved in its war against Ukraine or face a direct confrontation between the two world powers. Anatoly Antonov, Moscow’s ambassador to the U.S., told Russian news outlet Tass that the “risk of a clash between the two great powers is high,” a day after President Joe Biden announced a new $1.8 billion military aid package for Ukraine, including for the first time Patriot surface-to-air missiles. Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said the delivery of the advanced surface-to-air missile system would be considered a provocative step and that the system and any crews accompanying it would be a legitimate target for Moscow’s military.
OBSERVATION - Russia has been threating the West and in particular the US over its support since day one. Not sure if putin has been maneuvered into a position were he does strike out at western support to Ukraine directly.
RUMINT. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s renewed public appearances likely indicate that he has become more concerned about his popularity and image in Russia. Putin has been seemingly making more public appearances in Russian cities and more frequently delivering vague statements about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in recent days compared to his marked absence from public activity outside the Kremlin throughout the first ten months of the war.
MORE - Putin is reportedly being kept alive by Western medical treatments as he battles against cancer, according to Russian historian and political analyst Valery Solovey, the New York Post reported over the weekend.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- The Kremlin is attempting to introduce new provisions to incentivize more Russians to join the war effort. The Russian Federation Council approved a law on December 23 that suspends legal proceedings against mobilized servicemen and volunteers who participate in hostilities during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This law will also require Russian banks to suspend debt collection and the repayment of loans. This law could incentivize Russians with pending criminal proceedings or bank loans to join the war effort.
- The Kremlin continues to prioritize committing mobilized men to stabilize the Svatove-Kremina line over other areas of the front such as Bakhmut, Avdiivka, or western Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No Russian missile/drone barrage that has been typical of Monday mornings for the past several weeks. OTOH, for the second time in weeks that Russia’s main nuclear bomber base at Engels has been attacked. At least 2 Kh101 drones impacted the base, killing at least 3 and causing unknown damage, though videos posted on social media show a large fire and many secondary explosions following the strike.
Russia continues to throw everything is has left into the fight in the east, launching ground assaulst from Svatove in the north to Donetsk in the south, with no appreciable gains. Rumors are that Russia has lost ground in Bakhmut. Yet to be confirmed reports that Reports of the first Ukrainian units entering the town of Kreminna from both the north and the west tonight as part of a larger Ukrainian offensive in the Kreminna-Svatove. Unconfirmed reports of Russians pulling out of the area.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Unconfirmed reports that Russian occupiers are stealing everything they can from the residents of Kreminna in Luhansk region. Military command of Russian invasion forces has moved from Kreminna to Rubizhne.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Reports that Russia has lost ground in the Bahkmut area.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Russian forces are continuing to establish defensive positions in left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts and are conducting defensive operations in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 23 that Russian forces are engineering positions along the Krasnoperekopsk-Dzhankoy highway in northern Crimea.[
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drones hit Engles airfield – see 24 hr update.
Explosions were reported in Sudzha district of Kursk region of Russia.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
RUMINT – Russia claiming that NATO special ops forces and / or CIA has activated operatives throughout Russia to conduct strikes on various targets ranging from pipelines, refinery facilities and large shopping centers. Totally unconfirmed, though there have been a lot of these incidents in recent days.
OUTLOOK ——
Observing evidence that Ukraine is gaining traction in its attacks against Kreminna, around Bahkmut and in the Savtove region. Of the three, the battle for Kreminna is probably the most tactically important as it would open the door to going further east and endangering Russian LOCs necessary for the fight at Bahkmut and further south. Success at Svatove, combined with Kerminna would endanger the northern shoulder of the Russian efforts in the Donbas.
Bahkmut is turning even more into a meat grinder for Russia. If confirmed, photos and videos on social media show the approaches to the Ukraine defenses littered with the bodies of unrecovered Russian troops. One estimate was one body per 5 square meters. Some others likened it to the Germans at Verdun.
Tracking indicators that Russia is intending to launch some kind of attack out of Belarus in the future. Troops and equipment are slowly coming into the country and with the skeletal framework of the decimated 1st GTA there, Russia may be making an attempt to reconstitute it for either an attack towards Kyiv or the western margin of Ukraine.
My Assessment is that no invasion from Belarus is imminent, but actions indicate that the threat is growing. See Belarus below on some of the observed activities.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Belarus -
Putin’s upcoming meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg on December 26-27 will likely continue to prod Lukashenko towards deeper involvement in the Ukraine war.
The Russian Ministry of Defense ostentatiously announced on November 24 that it has a field hospital in Belarus. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 23 that Russian forces are planning to deploy at least one more field hospital in Belarus. Field hospitals are not necessary for training exercises and could indicate preparation for combat operations. The appearance of field hospitals in Belarus in early 2022 was among the final indicators observed before Russia commenced its full-scale invasion.
Some Russian T-90 tanks, reportedly deployed to Belarus in late December 2022, were observed with winter camouflage. Equipping tanks with winter camouflage is not wholly necessary for training activity and could indicate preparation for actual winter combat operations.
OBSERVATION – Growing evidence that Russia may be planning an eventually attack out of the north, but compilation of indicators suggest nothing imminent.
Poland –
Kurdish immigrants in Paris have been on a rampage for the past few days following a race-based attack that kill three.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
After an Emergency Meeting earlier today Serbian President Vucic ordered Serbian Army General Staff Milan Mojsilovic to go to the Kosovo-Serbian Border where Serbian Roadblocks continue to be built and where earlier today a NATO KFOR Patrol was fired upon by Unknown Forces.
OBSERVATION – I suspect that Serbia is gauging its provocations with Russia’s reportedly planned offensive. As noted, it could serve to divert NATO support for Ukraine via having to respond to Serbian aggression and an Art 5 trigger.
Pakistan –
State Dept issued an alert that terror attacks may occur in Pakistan.
Iran –
Protests are waning in Iran, remaining predominantly in the Kurdish western areas.
Syria -
Turkey is in talks with Russia to use the airspace above northern Syria for a potential cross-border operation against the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Saturday. Turkey has carried out several incursions into northern Syria against the YPG and has been threatening a new incursion for months.
OBSERVATION - In negotiating with Russia, Syria is also being spoken too. Turkey is trying to play both ends against the middle with Russia.
Turkey -
See talks with Russia under Syria above.
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
UN Security Council member states called for the reopening of the Lachin corridor in a discussion of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations on Tuesday. The corridor, the only open road into or out of Nagorno-Karabakh, has been blocked by Azerbaijani ‘eco-activists’ since 12 December.
OBSERVATION – ‘Eco-activitst’ looking a lot like miliary. The corridor has trapped about ½ the population of Armenia population in Nagorno-Karabakh and isolated them from supplies. This ‘blockaid’ has been going on for nearly two weeks now.
Misc of Note –
Winter storm Elliott is slowly working its way out of the eastern US. It brought snow as far south as Miami FL and set snowfall records in Buffalo NY. Currently about a dozen have died and millions have been without power. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, we went from -36 to 40 degrees yesterday and scattered light RAIN showers. Weather chaos is hard to predict, but I’m growing concerned that even some milder storms (or lack thereof) will seriously affect our food production in 2023.