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Polish Scholar Sees Six Possible Russian Futures
Window on Eurasia ^ | Oct 2021 | Paul Goble

Posted on 12/12/2021 5:24:29 PM PST by CondoleezzaProtege

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To: rellic

“ Personally, I think Nukes in Washington DC, Moscow, and Bejing, destroy those three cities( and the government there) and the entire world would be a better place.”

You may be on to something. I noticed the good professor failed to mention that Russia has one of the most advanced military’s in the world and more nukes than us. Russia facing a disastrous outcome could easily take out half our population. Yes, it would likely be the end of both countries but there is a concept called “scorched earth.” Russia has certainly tasted Armageddon before and they came back from the brink.


21 posted on 12/12/2021 6:49:39 PM PST by icclearly
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To: NorseViking
Four negative scenarios are wishful thinking unrelated to reality, the “positive” scenarios do not reflect the popular sentiments and the goals of the elites as well.

Agreed.

Russians are very united on some key points - particularly they are 100% agreed on wanting to avoid a return to the 1990s corruption, weakness, crony-capitalist asset-stripping.

They are also nearly all agreed that "the West" particularly the USA and NATO want to keep Russia weak and tear pieces from it.

I would finally say a large majority would agree with the statement "keep Russia Russian," support the primacy of the Orthodox Church against other faiths, particularly Muslim.

You thus have 3 key nationalist, social and political issues upon which the majority of Russians and especially their elites, are very united.

22 posted on 12/12/2021 7:08:25 PM PST by PGR88
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To: StayAt HomeMother; Ernest_at_the_Beach; 1ofmanyfree; 21twelve; 24Karet; 2ndDivisionVet; 31R1O; ...
Thanks CondoleezzaProtege.

23 posted on 12/12/2021 8:16:33 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

It looks like Russia has gone back to 1890, a large but unstable giant. Tsar Vladimir has his hands full.


24 posted on 12/13/2021 1:45:44 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dreams)
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To: PGR88

The stories of the Russian decline are mostly coming from the Ukrainian and Baltic propaganda, extrapolating their situation on Russia, and supported by neocon establishment.

The ‘demographic collapse’ in Russia is the decrease from 148 to 144 million people over the last 30 years.

Compare it to Western-allied Ukraine and Baltic states who lost 20-40% of population over that period.

They like to show you adandoned towns in Russia and dilapidated roads to support the theory, but it reflects the adandonment of the Soviet practices, when the cities were built in the Middle of nowhere, relying on a single obsolete industry. Of course the people are moving out and they don’t need roads anymore in these places.

On the economy, the Russian GDP was $197 billion in 1999, in 2013 - $2,2 trillion.
In 2019 it was $1,687 trillion - a contraction everybody understand is not a Putin’s fault, but the result of foreign pressure. Still exponentially better than under Western-backed Yeltsinite oligarchy.

The lackluster showing of the new puppet Navalny is a testament to the fact that the Western influence in Russia is dead. Foreign media, Facebook and Twitter did their best to create the virtual reality where Navalny is the omni-popular with all the related events trending on top but it translated in only 5% of popular support and 70% anti-rating.

As for Russia ‘splitting into parts’ would anyone explain over what lines?

North Caucasus is a singly culturally different part of Russia, geographically small and populated by a couple million people. They played with the independence in the 1990s resulting in failed Islamic quasi-states overrun by Al-Qaeda and now among the strongest supporters of federal authority.

They say Siberia, Tatarstan and I wonder what this idiocy is based on? Have any of them been to these places?

If the CIA established a ‘Free Siberia’ online group with half a million bots signed up it doesn’t mean actual public support as was the case with Navalny.

As for China the shift of the Russian interests from the West is inevitable in current conditions.

Is it a threat to Russia? At least it is not imminent at this point, where the West presents immediate threat.

Would China be a threat to Russia in future? Maybe yes or maybe no.


25 posted on 12/13/2021 2:36:12 AM PST by NorseViking
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To: Jonty30

It’s one-child has been so successful that parents are interested in more than one children.

China now has an unlimited child policy because the 2 and the 3 child policies did not work.

No one wants a lot of kids because it is too expensive :
over half the population subsists on less than $1200 year ;
there is no social safety net of any sort ;
the last safe place to invest in China just collapsed with the Evergrande property scandal ;
extended and immediate family income depends on wages earned by its sons ;
families advertise on public park bulletin boards for husbands and wives for their kids ;
sons must own property to get married ;
daughters must have dowry commensurate with station of prospective husband ;
women over 30 and unmarried are “leftover women” and unmarriageable ;
marriages must be approved by both families.


26 posted on 12/13/2021 4:26:28 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: icclearly

Russia has one of the most advanced military’s in the world and more nukes than us.

Shortly China will have more nukes than the US and Russia combined.


27 posted on 12/13/2021 4:31:46 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: NorseViking

Whoever replaces him in 2024


Putin will likely find a way to replace himself in 2024 and go on until he gets replaced.


28 posted on 12/13/2021 4:39:49 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: cgbg

Don’t forget Beria.


Or Stalin ...


29 posted on 12/13/2021 4:40:57 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: rellic

Chinese will move into the “far East”.


They tried that in 1969 and it did not turn out well. Now Russia stations its best troops and equipment along the Sino-Russo border. Any Chinese crossing that line will, by policy, be nuked.


30 posted on 12/13/2021 4:44:08 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: Rummyfan

I can more easily see China trying to seize parts of Siberia


That would be a fatal mistake and Xi knows it. One troop crossing the line and good bye Beijing. Xi does not want to repeat the mistake of ‘69, and Russia will use nukes to stop them.


31 posted on 12/13/2021 4:47:20 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: PGR88

I was quite stunned to learn that Russia has an elites vs the people problem almost identical to the West on Covid/vaccine/vaccine passport related issues.

Here is some more information on this issue:

https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/the-battle-for-russia


32 posted on 12/13/2021 4:56:14 AM PST by cgbg (A kleptocracy--if they can keep it. Think of it as the Cantillon Effect in action.)
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To: PIF

There are 60 million more males than females. The traditional answer to excess maleshave been war.


33 posted on 12/13/2021 4:59:20 AM PST by Jonty30 (I love giving directions, because it is liko. e me to tell people where to go and how to get there.)
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To: rellic

“Personally, I think Nukes in Washington DC, Moscow, and Bejing, destroy those three cities( and the government there) and the entire world would be a better place.
Just an opinion.”

You might want to add Berlin and Brussels into that.
HOWEVER....
Doing that would give give the muzzies carte blanche to take over the world. As it is only the Russians, Chinese, Hungarians and Poles seem to care. The West seems intent on suicide by islam.


34 posted on 12/13/2021 5:59:42 AM PST by oldvirginian (I’m getting tired of being part of a major historical event.)
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To: Jonty30

There are 60 million more males than females. The traditional answer to excess males have been war.


That’s not how China operates. China is not the West and does not operate like a Western country. War is anathema to the Chinese people. Worse, war would bring on Xi enemies (Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao) who would kill him without hesitation.

You are reading to much into that number, which is not reliable like all statistics published by the CCP. Further, the PLA has not WON any military conflict since its inception - not against Russia, Vietnam, India, Cambodia. Korea was sort of a stalemate due to UN telling the PLA every move and because of internal US politics, not because of its military prowess or strength.


35 posted on 12/13/2021 6:08:40 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: PIF

I don’t know. I just that is the disparity. It will eventually be distabilizung inside or outside the country.

Or both.


36 posted on 12/13/2021 6:17:33 AM PST by Jonty30 (I love giving directions, because it is liko. e me to tell people where to go and how to get there.)
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To: Jonty30

60 million people is not an awfully large number of people compared to the Chinese population. They have the option to emigrate as well.
How many people in Western countries are single or divorced? They seem to prefer video games and alcohol vs coming to war.


37 posted on 12/13/2021 6:26:15 AM PST by NorseViking
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To: Jonty30

I don’t know. I just that is the disparity. It will eventually be distabilizung inside or outside the country.

It will equalize as China’s population keeps shrinking - no destabilization needed - Xi is doing a great job in that vein.


38 posted on 12/13/2021 6:35:42 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: PIF

I think modern Japan is a likely model for China. It was all the rage at the time, but now unambitious aging country.


39 posted on 12/13/2021 7:05:00 AM PST by NorseViking
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To: Jonty30

A problem for Chinafrom their 1 child policy is it lead to a signficantly skewed male to female ratio. And that problem is going to be getting worse for the near future

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282119/china-sex-ratio-by-age-group/


40 posted on 12/13/2021 7:12:45 AM PST by MNJohnnie (They would have abandon leftism to achieve sanity. Freeper Olog-hai)
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