I'm starting an analysis to solve The Mystery of the 2020 US House Elections (why did the Democrats get spanked so badly if The Joek won so big?).
I just finished the Minnesota 7th CD.
2014 Seventh Congressional District of Minnesota election Party Candidate Votes % Democratic/DFL Collin Peterson (incumbent) 130,546 54.2 Republican Torrey Westrom 109,955 45.7 2016 Seventh Congressional District of Minnesota election Party Candidate Votes % Democratic/DFL Collin Peterson (incumbent) 173,589 52.5 Republican Dave Hughes 156,952 47.4 2018 Seventh Congressional District of Minnesota election Party Candidate Votes % Democratic/DFL Collin Peterson (incumbent) 146,672 52.1 Republican Dave Hughes 134,668 47.9 Minnesota's 7th congressional district, 2020 Party Candidate Votes % Republican Michelle Fischbach 194,066 53.4 Democratic/DFL Collin Peterson (incumbent) 144,840 39.8
The 7th has been the same since 2013 [not re-districted]. The DFL shot its wad rigging the vote in the place they always rig it - the 55 mile by 70 mile rectangle encompassing the Twin Cities.
Unfortunately for Collin Peterson, his district on the western side of the state got annihilated by the Trump turnout, and the anemic Democrat/DFL turnout.
In the Twin Cities rectangle, "turnout" averaged 115 to 135 percent over the record Obama turnout of 2008 in Minnesota.
Where the Dems couldn't spare the ballot harvesters [in the 7th CD, for instance], REAL turnout averaged 65 to 82 percent of the Obama 2008 turnout. Not one of Collin Peterson's 37 counties had a turnout greater than Obama's 2008 turnout - where in "The Golden Minneapolis-St. Paul Rectangle", not one of those very populous counties had a turnout of less than 108 percent of Obama's 2008 turnout*.
Of course, it COULD be that the whites in the Twin Cities are a bunch of racists that hate black guys like Obama, and love old senile white guys like Brandon-Biden...
*Trump's turnout in the 7th in 2020 averaged 140 percent greater than McCain 2008 turnout