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Some raw U.S. numbers, as reported by the CDC itself.

The CDC reports that in the month of September 2021 (i.e., the month just ending), there was a total of 42,054 people in the United States who died and whose deaths were "associated with COVID-19." By this, the CDC explains that this means "[d]eaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1."

By contrast, the CDC reports that in the month of September 2020, there was a total of 19,138 people in the U.S. who died and whose deaths were "associated with COVID-19."

In other words, per the CDC itself, using an apples-to-apples comparison, some 22,916 more people died last month "from/with" COVID than did so a year ago in September. Now, of course, I suppose it is fair to say that in September 2020, much of the country was in more of a "lockdown" mode that was the case last month. At the same time, it seems important to note that in September 2020, no one in the U.S. had been vaccinated.

Further, one might have imagined that those most vulnerable to COVID would have for the most part succumbed in the initial pandemic wave(s) in 2020, leaving less "dry kindling," as it were, at the present time.

I don't know myself what to make of these data. The death statistics are broken out at the state level as well. Makes for interesting reading, but I'm not smart enough, I don't think, to identify any meaningful patterns.

A wise person would start with the verifiable assumption that the CDC is a dishonest organization.

That would temper any expectations you had that you could draw any sane conclusions from their data.

In other words, per the CDC itself, using an apples-to-apples comparison, some 22,916 more people died last month “from/with” COVID than did so a year ago in September. Now, of course, I suppose it is fair to say that in September 2020, much of the country was in more of a “lockdown” mode that was the case last month. At the same time, it seems important to note that in September 2020, no one in the U.S. had been vaccinated.

Further, one might have imagined that those most vulnerable to COVID would have for the most part succumbed in the initial pandemic wave(s) in 2020, leaving less “dry kindling,” as it were, at the present time.

I don’t know myself what to make of these data. The death statistics are broken out at the state level as well. Makes for interesting reading, but I’m not smart enough, I don’t think, to identify any meaningful patterns.

Some ideas: the tests are inaccurate.

The present variants are more contagious and there more new infections September of this year than September of last year.

If we knew the number of people with natural immunity, I guess we should be able to estimate how many more remain to be infected.