from the two seroprevalence studies I found, ‘natural immunity’ is far smaller population that one would think - about 18% to 25% of the total population.
A check on that would be to compare the number of recovered infected (30M) plus the number fully vaccinated (49% or 300M/2 = 150 million); 180 million ‘acquired immune’
300 million (25 million kids deducted) minus 180 million = 120 million “at risk” - not recovered and not vaccinated.
If we go with 25% of that 120 million as those who were asymptomatic or unreported recovered or ‘natural’ immunity, that’s 30 million. If we get generous and say 50%, that gives us 60 million. So we have another pool of 30-60 million. This leaves a pool of 60 to 90 million out of 120 million that haven’t acquired immunity and haven’t been vaccinated.
That is, 60-90 million are still vulnerable. Versus the general pop as a whole gives a minimum risk ratio of 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 of those who may still get infected. (300/90 and 300/60). However, with half the population vaccinated, the risk rises to 1 in 2 (120/60) or less (120/90) for those not in a protected group.
from the two seroprevalence studies I found, ‘natural immunity’ is far smaller population that one would think - about 18% to 25% of the total population.
Only....other studies and reports have said that we are likely at 40% of population already have reached heard immunity/natural infection.
I’d say it is at least that.
Big whoop.
We’re all likely immune to many more viruses than we even know.