Posted on 07/20/2021 10:38:23 AM PDT by Roman_War_Criminal
“Calling B.S. on the ability of a dog to detect viral particles smaller than a wavelength of light.”
Seems someone’s brother-in-law got a big contract for nothing.
You are right in a sense that a single Delta infected person with it’s R0 of 4 can infect a million other in only 9 host cycles. That is it only takes 9 jumps from host to host for a single Delta infected person to grow to a million infected in a unvaccinated population set of vectors. With an infectious window of 3 to 5 days for each generation that’s 45 days for a single case to grow to a million. India saw numbers at least that high they had places with an R0 of 6+. Here in the USA the additional factors would be a vaccine penetration rate of 30 to 40% and a case recovery rate of 25% or so have been exposed to the alpha, beta and gamma strains. Delta has the ability to jump past natural immunity to a certain degree there’s thousands of documented cases of people having recovered from the alpha beta or gamma strain and sickened by Delta confirmed with RNA sequencing of the secondary infectious strain. So the natural immunity factor for Delta is lower than 25% way lower it looks to be able to infect half of people who had the alpha and beta strain in numbers so far quantified. The Mrna vax antibodies are only 64% effective against Delta so the V penetration factor is also under 40% since 64% of that 40% are protected the rest are not. Factor in all those numbers and it would only take 12 generations with the USA vector set of.vulnerabilities to go from one case to a million of Delta it’s basic immunological mathematics well.defined and well studied.
Dogs can detect metabolics for a host of things. They have superhuman noses literally 100,000 times better than humans.
Dogs can detect cancer inside a person by the sweat secretions of that person for one example. They do this at a detection accuracy that exceeds the lab test result. As in they detect cancer in people that the lab tests said were negative thus saving their lives.
Dogs can teach a single human out of millions of others across open country side just by the skin particles, sweat droplets and aerosol particles dropped on the ground as the person ran by. Blood hounds are world rebound for this ability even hours or days after that person passed by once trained to their unique metabolics.
Dogs can detect explosive residue in the part per billion range. Word of personal advice never take a military range bag in to a civilian airport the dogs will go right too it they are able to detect that bag held munitions in it months after contact with just the surface of the munition.
Training a dog to smell COVID infected metabolics is a stroke of genius. Only a truly infected person would be shedding those smells and thus need to be found and isolated from society wit large until they recover and are no longer shedding virus everywhere. Dogs are man’s greatest ally proving yet again what good companions they are.
For just COVID?
HIV?
Herpes (can be spread without being symptomatic)?
Ringworm?
Flu?
I will withdraw Ringworm and substitute West Nile Virus.
I have worked with K9 units during my tenure in federal LEO. Trained service dogs ignore food on a test subjects or area they are highly trained officers. Only a food trained K9 such as the beagles that CBP uses to find illicit meats, fruits and vegetables in luggage coming in from overseas would alert to food in a pocket all others would ignore it. The hounds group are used for food, explosives, and people(cadaver,medical,survivor in rubble) but not apprehension K9 Shepards are the breed for that line of K9 typically.
There is very little in the way to spoof a well trained K9 the coffee grounds is a myth as is food or bacon or steak.
Airborne infectious disease that represents a threat to society at large just by the presence of an infected human spreading it in public. The Supremes have weighted in twice on this. Your attempt at strawman is noted.
Smallpox, Ebola, tuberculosis, COVID to name a few that would fall under what the Supremes have weighted in on or would fall under an existing ruling especially given the constitutionally declared state of emergency still in effect from the last admin.
Ebola is not an airborne spread communicable disease.
The flu is - and there have been several that have had higher mortalities. Do we use this same detection methods for high mortality flu strains?
I’m sorry you did not discern the point I was attempting to make. Use of dogs like this is novel. I’d suggest there are better ways to determine if a person has a communicable disease.
You’re right! And as soon as everyone is vaccinated we can go from 99.7 survivability to 99.8!!
There are always those few pesky individuals that will go ahead and die on you just out of spite...
Disregard Ebola - the main issue is - is use of dogs in this manner appropriate and an acceptable way to detect disease?
Dogs are obviously fallible. Was crossing an international land border and a dog trained in drug detection alerted at the trunk of my car. I opened the car trunk - the dog found nothing - except the banding tools I used to band owls.
Found out later from someone at CBP that works in that sector that the handler got razzed about that for a couple of weeks. But the dog was wrong. It happens sometimes.
Ebola is absolutely airborne in the later stages of the illness. I lived 500 meters from the Dallas hospital were two nurses got Ebola from the Nigeria confirmed via airborne droplets they lacked the respirator PPE that was later deemed essential to stop the spread they had surgical masks and face shields only and both inhaled it. The report was made to the CDC and it detailed the airborne route. There is also much evidence from the DRC to support late stage airborne droplet transmission as well as a fecal aerosol route where explosive bowels in the last stages aerosolizes more than the 50 virons needed for infection.There is mountains of evidence to support airborne Ebola at certain stages of a patient’s infection profile.
Dogs in this use is perfect to find those with mild infections who think oh I just have a sniffles well no you have COVID and are spreading it to everyone around you who may or may not just have a sniffles from it later. Dogs also can find the asymptomatic sheders who don’t know thst are sick but still shed virus to others. Dogs will smell the active virus they are harbouring with 90% accuracy that’s better than PCR or antibodies testing via ELISA tests.
Dogs should absolutely be put in airports before we cram into aluminium cans all sucking the same air with an infected person. Trains, subways, concerts, anywhere large groups are close quarters. Find the super spreaders before they gain access and stop them from infecting people that’s the goal and dogs have now proven the ability to do just that. The USA needs thousands of these dogs to find , isolate and quarantine the infected until they are not infectious anymore.
K9 dogs are amazing.
Absolutely, I fostered a Shepard K9 while his normal handler was in sick call for a injury. Maxamillion “Max” for short great animal if a bit skittish at first he was a drug and ordinance trained K9 but would also do seek and find if a perp went feral it was a game for Max his teeth were no joke though. I had him for a month still miss the guy.
Dogs in this use make a great way to do mass noninvasive surveillance to find infected while they are in public places where just by being in public you have consented to a dog search that has been upheld at least half a dozen times in USC Court’s and the Supremes have as well. We can’t swab everyone going into an airport but you can have dogs walking the lines and when they smell an infected person isolate them and do a second test via swab rapid ELISA or rapid pcr and get another dog as well if both dogs alert then the probability of a false positive is near zero 90% raised to 90% for a double positive is near zero probability for a false positive.
The first thing that must be understood is the fact that a person with active COVID infection must be isolated in medical quarantine until clear of th virus that much is not negotiable society has a right to isolate infectious people and the government has plenary power to do so. How you find those infected people and isolate them is up for debate but these wonderful animals and their superhuman noses just opened a way to find people in mass and with low costs and very high accuracy.
Re: 51 - Your point that Ebola is airborne in later stages is arguable.
- see https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/mutations.pdf
If you have some references, please pass them along.
And again, please pass along some references that document the accuracy of dogs re: COVID-19 with 90% accuracy. That's great, but it's important to see the underlying research specifically re: COVID-19.
No disagreements there. Just hope they don't alert on owl! LOL
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4885103/
Section 3.4 look at references 57,68, and 71
This group also directly aerosolized EBOV fluids as would explosive bowels or coughing in close proximity would be capable of into monkey cages and they all developed symptomatic cases.
Check the original link the data up.submitted for peer review states a 90% accuracy rate. It also is stated directly in the quoted text post by Roman here. Given my experience with K9 units 90% or above is easily believable drug dogs are near 100% accurate they rarely miss even the smallest amount. I have seen a dog find a single seed and the ash from marijuana cigarette behind closed doors from 30+ feet away. I have seen a dog find residue from 40 mike mike MK19 ammo four months after they were carried in the bag and only the unfired munitions were carried in it not the spent cases so the only material was by surface contact of new munitions that K9 smelled that from passing by in an airport line walk through truly impressive levels of sensitivity.
I would expect a K9 properly trained to key in on sweat , mucous and tears from a COVID person with laser like precision.
Thanks for the info and perspective.
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