It’s too early. #1 - if Joe Biden is still in same condition as he is now as he may be in 2024, he will run again.
#2 - if Joe Biden is not running again, Kamala Harris may not end up winning the nomination.
But, he won’t be in the same condition. He has deteriorated appreciably since the primary last year. With each passing month, it becomes just a little bit harder for him to speak extemporaneously.
Dementia is a strange condition. People suffering from it, particularly in the early phase of the disease, maintain a very competent ability to read even though they may remember less and less of what they’re reading. You’ll notice that in public appearances now, Biden just doesn’t lean heavily upon notecards, but he frequently reads them verbatim never straying even for a syllable from what’s been written for him.
There’s a reason they highly-limit his press accessibility; they never know what word-salad he’s going to deliver. In his last press (and only) press conference, he gave no less than two answers that had nothing to do with the question. Why? He probably didn’t remember the question, only pieces of it. That’s the insidiousness of dementia.
Three more years from now, even reading will be difficult.