The reliability of the tests relies on several factors.
First of all, serological tests to determine if a person has been exposed are all but useless, given that antibodies do not distinguish well between similar viruses, and we all have been exposed to coronaviruses. About all the serological tests can show is how the immune system is responding following a coronavirus exposure.
PCR tests are far more reliable for accurately detecting the presence of Covid-19 RNA. However, PCR tests can give false positives if care is not taken to prevent cross-contamination with Covid-19 RNA that may be present in the environment during sample collection. (I used to test for Ebola RNA; in one lab, every sample I ran was positive due to environmental contamination.) Also, PCR tests cannot distinguish between active virus and dead virus.
A viral culture test will show whether a person has an active infection. The virus must still be positively identified through RT-PCR for the test to conclusively show infection with Covid-19.
I think that diagnoses are made based on symptoms and test results.
if you haven’t gotten Covid yet, you will unless you get the vaccine
Pure speculation....which vaccine by the way?