These threads only out those who cant do basic math.
Swing states decide elections. Impossible to win those with a third party. DOA
Well lets talk basic math. President Trump received north of 70 million votes in the 2020 election. Lets assume only half of those are willing to change registration to a third party. So 35 million voters in the new party.
So if ONLY HALF of his voters moved over, that would tie the existing GOP party registration. It is also reasonable to assume that many of those would would change over to the new party would come from the GOP. That would shift the GOP to fourth place according to the web site ballot access. (https://ballot-access.org/2020/10/24/nationwide-voter-registration-data-by-party/)
Somewhere down below Independent and above Libertarian.
So as long as we are talking basic math ... swing states could be won by the right third party.