Always good to write out thoughts. Russian deployments have gone far beyond an exercise, Russia wants Ukraine as a buffer.
Winter provides solid ground for armor movements. Eastern Ukraine is pretty marshy, not good for armor.
Watching China as the worst case scenario is in play particularly with recent joint exercises.
An additional thought:
I didn’t mention Israel/Iran in my previous post, but that area could also become relevant in the near term.
Iran and Israel have their own agenda and time table. Iran intends to destroy Israel, and is close to having the nukes to do so (assuming they could be delivered, no easy task). Israel has no intention of letting Iran get nukes.
In a worst case scenario war would erupt in the Middle East at the same time Russia attacked Ukraine and China attacked Taiwan. (An all out war between Iran and Israel would most likely include other nations in the area as well, and could potentially draw Russia in via Syria.)
If Israel is winning, Iran would almost certainly activate their sleeper cells in the U.S.
This, plus my previous post, could explain the seemingly stupid and irrational statements recently made by some high level politicians in the U.S. threatening first use of nuclear weapons.
None of us know the future, especially me. What I’ve speculated about COULD happen, but that does not mean it actually will.
We live in “interesting times”. (That’s an ancient Chinese curse..)