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Even their own polls aren’t working for them any more. Consider below. Note, this accepts the polls at face value, which is problematic of course, but pretends worst case interpretation of current standings. So it takes their numbers and then also assumes 3.5% of Trump supporters won’t self-identify to pollsters. No idea if that is an accurate rate or not but based on other things I’ve read, it is likely at least 3%, probably higher.

Real Clear Politics often buries the fact that their averaging sometimes treats polls from as far back as January as equally weighted as one from last week, which makes no sense. If, instead one looks at the polls within the last month or so, one finds:

Wisconsin: Biden +6.6 - 3.5 = Biden +3.1

Florida: Biden + 1.3 - 3.5 = Trump +2.2

Pennsylvania: RCP shows Biden as +9 but this includes a Marist poll from 9/7 that seems to be an outlier. Taking that out, one gets an average of Biden + 3.8 -3.5 = Biden +0.3

North Carolina: Biden +0.8 - 3.5 = Trump +2.7

Michigan: Biden +5.2 - 3.5 = Biden +1.7

Arizona: Biden +3.2 - 3.5 = Trump +0.3

Minnesota: includes a recent seemingly outlier poll showing Biden as +16 but using their average of +10.2 - 3.5 = Biden +6.7. Still think this is not accurate, however

Ohio: only one poll within the past month which is Rasmussen showing as Biden +4. +4 - 3.5 = Biden +0.5 but this was at the beginning of the month before Trump started catching up in their polls. So, seems Trump at least slightly ahead now.

Iowa: RCP shows as a tie + 3.5 = Trump +3.5

Nevada: Only two polls, one from January showing Biden +8 and one from the beginning of September showing Biden +4. The +4 is more relevant arguably and +4 - 3.5 = Biden +0.5 but, again, this is before reflecting the massive inroads Trump has made in polling over the past month, particularly among Hispanic voters. It suggests Trump is currently ahead in Nevada

New Hampshire: Only one poll from September, about second week of the month - shows Biden +3. Less 3.5 = Trump +0.5

Maine: September polls show Biden ~+16.7. I recognize this doesn’t reflect the fact ME splits and it’s still possible Trump might win that, but since I am assuming worst case scenario using their polls, putting it all as Biden

Virginia: Not enough polling to show for sure- showed Biden +11 at beginning of month and he’s +5 now. Putting as Biden but getting close

Georgia: Trump + 2 or tied in most recent polls + 3.5 = Trump win

Texas: Trump ~+2.5 in recent polls + 3.5 = Trump ~+6

Colorado: Hasn’t been a poll since August. Shows Biden as +10 and only poll on record. Highly suspect given lack of polls but putting as Biden since worst case assumptions

New Mexico: Only one poll in September and was at very beginning of month, showing Biden +15. Again, suspect but assuming worst case.

So, what does all this mean? It means that even properly adjusting their biased polls shows the following: Trump 269-Biden 269 with the assumption that Trump picks up the other +1 for Nebraska (mostly because I gave the Maine +1 to Biden).

In other words, even interpreting these polls in the worst light possible to Trump, even assuming these polls are accurate (when they’re biased in favor of Ds) even these garbage polls are still showing essentially a tie, or, more likely, Trump winning. If even their garbage polls can’t hide what appears to be trending towards a Trump win, you know it will end up being a big win.