U.S. HERD IMMUNITY ACHIEVED – UPDATE #2

Original analysis | 9/7/20 | Nostradumbass

[Nostradumbass]

We developed a linear regression model to predict, and then confirm, the Covid-19 herd immunity threshold (HIT) for the US. Having achieved US HIT, new daily cases and deaths are now in their final descent. Therefore, we can now predict how many total Covid-19 related deaths will occur and when daily new deaths will become negligible.

After the “mostly peaceful” protests began, some states experienced surges in Covid-19 case counts while others did not. This dichotomy signaled that some states had reached their HIT while others were lagging, thereby providing the basis for a forecasting model of the US HIT.

The forecasting model utilized (x) the percentage differential of current daily cases from peak daily cases at the state level and (y) current cumulative cases at the state level to derive a correlation between the two. That correlation was then extrapolated to predict the HIT at the national level.

In other words, the model used state level data to determine the number of cumulative confirmed cases required for US HIT (i.e. the point at which the daily new case count would necessarily begin to decline). The model does not start with an assumption of HIT percentage or of an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio.

The model determined that the US HIT would be reached at a cumulative confirmed case count of 4.24 million. As a back-check of that HIT level, an assumed HIT of 50% would imply an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio of 39:1. Thus, the model-derived HIT level passes the smell test.

Herd immunity was always inevitable. Social distancing flattened the curve but also lengthened the curve. When social distancing relaxed, the curve became distorted with the so-called “second wave”. But this second wave also pushed the US past the HIT.

The model predicted that US HIT would be achieved on July 24. The 7-day moving average (MA) of US daily new cases peaked on July 25. The 7-day MA of US daily new deaths peaked soon thereafter on August 4. With each passing day of declining cases, the model is further validated.

Currently the 7-day moving average of daily new cases is 41% below its second wave peak and the 7-day moving average of daily new deaths is 23% below its second wave peak. Both are trending down nicely as would be expected after having achieved HIT. There will be no “third wave”.

The model is now indicating 67% of the US population has achieved immunity (whether due to a prior virus or this one) which implies an unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio of 34:1. This is why daily case count continues to drop, even with the headwind of increasingly relaxed social distancing.

The model is further predicting that US Covid-19 deaths will total 217,000 and that new deaths will be negligible by October 30. That means the US is 89% of the way toward the end of deaths. Some states like New York (which reached HIT earlier than most) are already at or near zero daily deaths.

The Establishment will continue to deny that we have reached HIT because the alternative would be having to admit they destroyed the US economy for no good reason. But Sweden’s success in accepting the inevitability of herd immunity is there for all to see. (BTW, Sweden does not require masks.)

Sweden has a lower Covid-19 death rate than does Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, AND the US. Sweden’s death rate stands at 577 per million of population while that of the US is now 583! Furthermore, Sweden is essentially done with Covid-19 deaths while the US is not yet there.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s 2q20 GDP decline was 9% while the US 2q20 GDP decline was 34%. Given that the US has a higher Covid-19 death rate, this is a devastating GDP differential. Shutting down the US economy was, at best, the worst economic blunder in history.

Granted, the CDC now admits that only 6% have died from Covid-19 while the other 94% died with Covid-19. And those who died with Covid-19 had an average of 2.6 co-morbidities. Nevertheless, we are simply tracking the trends so we can predict the end of deaths as reported, whether from or with Covid-19.

It looks like Covid-19 related deaths will be negligible before the November 3 Presidential Election. And before a vaccine is available. Stay tuned, Branch Covidians.

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[WildHighlander57]

Trumpisourlastchance wrote:

“Not where I live. Record numbers being infected each day.”

Where are there a record number of infections?

[WildHighlander57]

Thanks for the ping!