Posted on 09/06/2020 7:18:58 PM PDT by poconopundit
I noticed that too -- he flipped the answers, deliberately trying to change the result in favor of Biden. His time in the Sun will be done in 2021.
Lichtman is really trying to pull the wool over everybody's eyes this year. See my interpretation.
Curious if you agree/disagree with my thinking or have other points to make.
By the way, Charlie Kirk has produced his own prediction -- a very different, common sense model -- and it's a really solid piece of analysis explained in a podcast:
10 Indicators That Trump Will Win In November
Check it out!
Oh good to hear, sunkenciv. You can fool some of the people all of the time, but you can’t — oh, you know, THE THING ;-)
:^)
The question, of course, as you mentioned, is how blind or duped are our fellow Americans. In some ways, that's ALL this election is about because if you remove the lies and hoaxes and Karen-ish emotional reaction to Trump ... he's a shoe in, and even if you personally don't like him ... are you (royal you) REALLY willing to put your financial security in Biden's hands?
I think the shy/secret voter puts Trump in easily, and/but then of course the dems have their post election mail in prosthetic vote program.
What a year!
The lefty liars are out in full force this year—it must be a contagious disease or something!
Exactly. It is not Trump against Biden. It is Trump against the Corporate/Globalist Media.
The facts of this year are so singular I wouldn’t trust any models constructed on these lines
Hey tinyowl,
Just the other day I phoned a guy I used to converse with at the local library. Democrat, but not a TDS Democrat.
Took us a while for us to discuss politics.
But the guy frankly admitted on the phone that Biden in shape or form is ready for the Presidency.
So that conversation give me more hope.
Good point. This is indeed a unique year. And a very unique candidate on both sides.
Huh? : (
“In the face of all this, Lichtman, incredibly, is saying Trump is not charismatic because he believes half the country doesn’t like him. So I guess nobody can measure up to Lichtman’s standard of charisma.”
But this guy accurately predicted Obama’s election in 2008 and 2012? I can GUARANTEE half the country didn’t like him! I guess the difference is Obama didn’t believe it?
Of course unbeknownst to the dem who doesn't vote, the dem party is probably going to cast their vote FOR them by mail, but ... let's hope the Republicans are ready for this. I find it hard to believe Trump is not all over this methodically and under the radar while he distracts and pretends to just be a hothead about it. That's how he tricks them.
Nice work, thanks.
What a chump Lichtman is. 7 of those 10 elections were gimmes, so in reality he got 2 out of 3. BFD.
Yeah, good point. It would be interesting to see how he scored Obama in past elections. That would be fun to see because then we could easily see inconsistencies.
I’ll do a quick Google search to see. If I find something I’ll report back.
OK, I found Lichtman’s 2012 analysis here
https://www.informs.org/ORMS-Today/Public-Articles/June-Volume-38-Number-3/Election-2012-The-13-keys-to-the-White-House
And he did not consider Obama charismatic — nor Romney. So at least he was consistent.
The people’s disgust w/ Obama and Hillary has to be factored in.
Very good point. Maybe he was like a Stock Trader — produce many models. The early ones failed till he got smarter. Then when he found a model predicted three elections in a row, he announced to the world that he found the perfect track record model — 1860 to today.
Nice gig for a charlatan when you can get it.
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