Covid-19 Herd Immunity Achieved

Original analysis | 8/21/20 | Nostradumbass

[Nostradumbass]

U.S. HERD IMMUNITY ACHIEVED By Nostradumbass August 21, 2020 For immediate release

Statistical analysis shows that the U.S. has reached herd immunity for Covid-19. Consequently, the current downtrends in daily new cases and deaths is sustainable. The downward trajectory of daily new deaths will now continue toward zero.

Herd immunity was always inevitable. Social distancing flattened the curve but also lengthened the curve. When social distancing relaxed, the curve became distorted with the so-called “second wave”.

The second wave was really just the first wave in the three most populated states - California, Texas, and Florida - which had not yet reached herd immunity. There was no second wave in New York and a few other states because those states had previously reached herd immunity.

The differences in total confirmed case rates and daily new case trends for Covid-19 at the state level demonstrated a historical correlation that could be used to predict the level of herd immunity for the U.S. as a whole.

The Nostradumbass model utilized regression analysis to determine the statistical relationship between the 7-day moving averages of (x) state level cumulative case rates and (y) the timing of peak daily cases. That state level relationship was then extrapolated to the national level.

• The model predicted that U.S. herd immunity would be reached in late July and the model later confirmed that herd immunity was reached on July 24. • Per Worldometer, the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new cases peaked on July 25. We are now 33% below that peak. • The second wave of the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new deaths peaked on August 2. We are now 11% off that peak. • On August 18, the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new deaths dropped below the 14-day and the 14-day dropped below the 21-day indicating that the downward trend is sustainable. • On August 19, the 14-day and 21-day moving averages of U.S. daily new deaths also turned down confirming the trend sustainability.

Because the U.S. has reached herd immunity, there will be no “third wave” of Covid-19 deaths. Daily new deaths will instead continue on a downward trajectory until zero is achieved. And that event will almost certainly occur before any vaccines are available.

With the back-to-school period upon us, there may be a temporary reversal in daily case count. However, since young people do not tend to die from Covid-19, the downward trend in deaths will not be disrupted.

Sweden acknowledged the inevitability of herd immunity and therefore did not shut down their economy. Their daily new deaths peaked in April and have been negligible for the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Sweden’s death rate sits at 575 per million of population. The U.S. death rate is currently at 536 per million and still growing, though now growing at a decreasing rate.

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[Nostradumbass]

Go to Worldometers.info and look at the death rates. Sweden is down to zero deaths. The US death rate is closing in on Sweden. Contrary to your assertion, Sweden is below several other European countries. As to 2Q GDP, Sweden’s was down 6% while ours was down 33%. Those are facts.

[Nostradumbass]

Herd immunity is the point at which enough of the population has achieved immunity (whether due to this virus or a prior virus) such that the case rate will necessarily begin to decline. The 7 day moving average of the US case rate peaked on 7/24 and is down 34% since then. Death rates will lag but they too are now trending down. Frankly, most people gave up on social distancing after the “protests” were allowed. But I think I saw you the other day driving alone in your Prius with your face mask on.

[fireman15]

The death numbers are pumped up for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is now the CDC has to cover their ass for creating a panic over something that had the death rate of a typical flu.

That is for sure. We are told that the death rate from all causes is up 10% this year but that is not in line with the actual numbers. The death rate from all causes is higher this year but that at least partially because of people not getting appropriate treatment for heart disease, cancer, and other conditions that kill far more people than Covid or the flu each year. Apropriate treatments for these real killers have not been available in many cases, but people have also been afraid to go to their doctors and hospitals.