Covid-19 Herd Immunity Achieved

Original analysis | 8/21/20 | Nostradumbass

[Nostradumbass]

U.S. HERD IMMUNITY ACHIEVED By Nostradumbass August 21, 2020 For immediate release

Statistical analysis shows that the U.S. has reached herd immunity for Covid-19. Consequently, the current downtrends in daily new cases and deaths is sustainable. The downward trajectory of daily new deaths will now continue toward zero.

Herd immunity was always inevitable. Social distancing flattened the curve but also lengthened the curve. When social distancing relaxed, the curve became distorted with the so-called “second wave”.

The second wave was really just the first wave in the three most populated states - California, Texas, and Florida - which had not yet reached herd immunity. There was no second wave in New York and a few other states because those states had previously reached herd immunity.

The differences in total confirmed case rates and daily new case trends for Covid-19 at the state level demonstrated a historical correlation that could be used to predict the level of herd immunity for the U.S. as a whole.

The Nostradumbass model utilized regression analysis to determine the statistical relationship between the 7-day moving averages of (x) state level cumulative case rates and (y) the timing of peak daily cases. That state level relationship was then extrapolated to the national level.

• The model predicted that U.S. herd immunity would be reached in late July and the model later confirmed that herd immunity was reached on July 24. • Per Worldometer, the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new cases peaked on July 25. We are now 33% below that peak. • The second wave of the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new deaths peaked on August 2. We are now 11% off that peak. • On August 18, the 7-day moving average of U.S. daily new deaths dropped below the 14-day and the 14-day dropped below the 21-day indicating that the downward trend is sustainable. • On August 19, the 14-day and 21-day moving averages of U.S. daily new deaths also turned down confirming the trend sustainability.

Because the U.S. has reached herd immunity, there will be no “third wave” of Covid-19 deaths. Daily new deaths will instead continue on a downward trajectory until zero is achieved. And that event will almost certainly occur before any vaccines are available.

With the back-to-school period upon us, there may be a temporary reversal in daily case count. However, since young people do not tend to die from Covid-19, the downward trend in deaths will not be disrupted.

Sweden acknowledged the inevitability of herd immunity and therefore did not shut down their economy. Their daily new deaths peaked in April and have been negligible for the past few weeks. Meanwhile, Sweden’s death rate sits at 575 per million of population. The U.S. death rate is currently at 536 per million and still growing, though now growing at a decreasing rate.

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[Jane Long]

They’re under 80 years of age.

= = =

Hopefully....but, this particular group does suffer from multiple comorbitities.

But, you did make a great point....that the elderly are the ones who need to be protected, take special measures.

[Yardstick]

Sounds plausible to me.

I will toss this into the mix:

https://reason.com/2020/08/14/did-sweden-accidentally-blunder-into-covid-19-herd-immunity/

The angle of this piece is that there’s more to herd immunity than just developing the right antibodies across a population. It seems lots of people have a natural pre-existing immunity to coronaviruses in general thanks to their T-cells. Turns out these clever T-cells don’t need to know the exact genetic call sign of a particular coronavirus in order to mount an effective defense against it. They just need to know it’s in the coronavirus family, which most people have been exposed to through having had a common cold. This gives something like a 30% head start towards herd immunity. Meaning herd immunity is likely to be achieved earlier than expected in an under the radar kind of way that makes experts use words like “unexpected” when asked to explain things.

[erkelly]

Do you really believe the media? This is all about getting mail-in voting so the dems can commit all the fraud they need. Tell me, do you personally know anyone who is very ill or who has died of this?

[ifinnegan]

New York has clearly reached so-called herd immunity. It burned through is how I put it.

Antibody tests has shown 20-30% had it. Natural resistance probably accounts for a larger percent.

[ConservativeDude]

Which is exactly the same as any other virus… If you take an anti-viral treatment protocol in the first 48 hours it makes a tremendous difference

[silverleaf]

You can schedule a telemed appointment and if appropriate, the Zelenko protocol will be prescribed and sent to you

Dr Z has info on twitter and if they shut him down, on Parler

Your doctor is a spineless dumbass, be sure to tell him you know you are on your own for the first five days of illness when is the best chance to beat it. See if he has the balls to refuse you in writing and refer you for a second opinion. Chances are he will get HCQ for himself and his family

[silverleaf]

And ask that puss if he does any prescribing of any drug off label.

[FreeReign]

Sweden has lost more people per million than we have. They have had numerous local lockdowns-they just didn’t do a National lockdown (like us). Their death rate is much higher than their neighboring countries-look it up. Their shutdowns at the local level have lead to the worst economic depression since WWII. Stop this “Sweden did it right” myth. Look at the facts.

The main point seems to be that Sweden has herd immunity.

Are you disagreeing with that?

[2aProtectsTheRest]

Yes, you are much safer outdoors. The CDC has stated transmission is 19 times more likely indoors than outdoors. Another study looked at several thousand cases and could only find 1 where outdoor transmission was likely how they caught it.

Unless you’re shoulder to shoulder in a big crowd (like a riot), you should have extremely low risk of catching it outdoors regardless of masks. Indoors is where all the risk is.

Funny enough, California has been spending tens of millions of dollars putting homeless people up in hotels to “protect” them from COVID-19. That’s not only wasting taxpayer dollars at a time when they’ve had to cut state workers’ pay by ~10% and when they’ve gone into massive debt and now have massive wildfires to contend with, it’s also apparently counterproductive to their originally claimed goals of preventing spread of COVID-19 among the homeless. Absolute clowns running that state.

[2aProtectsTheRest]

First, I generally like the approach Sweden took where businesses were able to continue operating with some basic mitigations in place to reduce spread. I think their main miss was a failure to protect the elderly in long term care homes, and they themselves have admitted that was a problem. They did, however, have an overall strategy on a national level that kept businesses operating and kept the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed like what we saw happen in Italy.

But to say they've reached herd immunity is clearly wrong. When a population achieves herd immunity, new case transmission reduces quickly towards zero because the virus can no longer find vulnerable hosts to infect. Sweden continues to see a steady flow of new cases. What they've managed to do is slow and control the spread.

Further, if you look at their total deaths so far (5,810), you can work backwards to see their total likely case counts. The current best estimate infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 is 0.65%, so that's 894,000 infected in a country of 10 million, or 8.84% who've been infected. Run the same numbers for Louisiana, you get 4,687 deaths and 721,000 infected from a population of 4.65 million for an infected rate of 15.5%. For New York it's 32,937 deaths, 5.1 million infected, population of 19.5 million, or 26% infected. New Jersey has 28% infected. All three are seeing new cases and new deaths.

So do I think that Sweden, with 8.84% of its population having been infected, is anywhere near herd immunity when 28% of New Jersey has been infected and more cases keep coming in? No, I don't. But none of it's going to matter when we have vaccines soon.

[Polynikes]

“Please explain why California homeless camps seem unaffected as a control group example?”

I wondered that early on. I knew it couldn't be the life style ie: drug & alcohol abuse or sanitation.

They should have been dropping like flies if this disease was as deadly as it was sold to be.

The homeless in San Francisco have a huge infection rate, easily north of 70%, coincidentally they were tested INSIDE shelters. They don't seem to be symptomatic for the most part. That's why the homeless were ostensibly put up in hotels. It was marketed as a way to protect them, similarly for jails. Clearing the jails was marketed as a way to protect the convicts. Really? Why not just give them masks.

CV19 is primarily spread through feces and the main vector is oral-fecal via touch. Just like Polio or Noro. That's why it was so deadly in Nursing homes. Elderly bed bound incontinent patients with weakened immune systems. That is not talked about much as it would destroy the mask control narrative.

It manifests as a respiratory condition and does seem to have a minor respiratory vector ergo the mask BS. A far better preventative is frequent hand washing with soap and water, cleaning touched surfaces, covering your mouth & nose when you sneeze and getting exposure to sunlight. Just like the Flu.

The homeless in San Francisco are EXEMPT FROM MASK requirements and only “urged” to social distance. In a tent? Give me “effin” break

It finally dawned on me they are outside a lot plus they tend to walk alot when they aren't passed out
What do you get a lot of being out side? Sunlight.
What does sunlight give you besides a sunburn? A hell of a lot of Vitamin D3.

Think about it. No one has been able to effectively answer me on that.
Sounds you are realizing it as well.
Its not a cure-all because co-morbidity's are a factor, mainly obesity and diabetes.

[ThePatriotsFlag]

Show me proof that deaths per 100,000 are going up. If you cannot, then tell people this is your OPINION. If you can, then I am very interested in the data.

[FreeReign]

The current best estimate infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 is 0.65%...

CDC says 0.26%.

... so that's 894,000 infected in a country of 10 million, or 8.84% who've been infected.

Using 0.26%, I get 2,235,000 million Swedes who were infected, or 22.35% of the population. Using the herd immunity theory that includes T cell immunity, 22.35% is a pretty high infection rate number herd immunity.

When a population achieves herd immunity, new case transmission reduces quickly towards zero because the virus can no longer find vulnerable hosts to infect. Sweden continues to see a steady flow of new cases.

The number of cases depends on the number of tests and other factors. Looking at deaths, I see Sweden and NYS as example where death are very close to zero.

[2aProtectsTheRest]

"CDC says 0.26%."

No, they do not.

Source link: CDC COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios

[Mr Rogers]

Where do you live?

[who knows what evil?]

Cut the crap...Hawaii is NOT ‘we’.

[Nostradumbass]

Totally agree with you fireman15. But my herd immunity model is based on case trends at state level compared to total cases at state level then extrapolated to national level. The death numbers are pumped up for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is now the CDC has to cover their ass for creating a panic over something that had the death rate of a typical flu.

[Nostradumbass]

Actually the Princess cruise ship that couldn’t dock is the best control group. As I recall, most passengers did not test positive and only a few elderly died. I have an econ degree and an MBA. Not a doctor. That’s why I’ve approached the herd immunity question with econometric modeling.

[Nostradumbass]

Government knows what’s best for you. Not. Mandatory vaccines will be hard to justify with the case count dropping so rapidly. Ugly indeed.

[Nostradumbass]

Yes, Jane, I did. I send a weekly update of my forecasting model to several friends and some of them encouraged me to get it into the public domain because it nailed the date of peak daily cases (the point of herd immunity). It’s time we apply some statistical analysis to the question of herd immunity to counteract all the politically motivated Covid hysteria. I’d be happy to share the model with you if you privately give me your e-mail address.