No, I was wrong about the HOUSE in 2016, but almost dead on about the senate. I said, net gain of 4-7 seats. We had a net gain of 3, with McSally’s election decided by 1/2% with 10,000 Republicans voting for Enema.
Meanwhile, “everyone” said Brexit 1 would lose (wrong); that Brexit 2 would lose (wrong); made the wrong call on the Israeli and Brazilian elections.
And in the 2018 senate races, they weren’t just wrong, they were way off: One poll had Scott losing by 11 (won by 1); most had Braun winning by 1 (closer to 4); Ducey in AZ by 10 (it was 14); and Hawley losing (won by 2-3).
Over the long haul I’ve been far more right than wrong. And since then we’ve had a string of special election victories: a flip in WI7 and CA25; party switch from Van Drew; holds in NY (Collins) when that was supposed to be a flip; and there was another that slips my mind that was a hold. In short, except for a single WI Supreme Court race, in the last 6 months the GOP has run wild. Even going back six months before that, we were up in special state level elections something like 10 flips to 4 to one D-indie flip.
Sorry, but I still remember this fateful article from a couple of days before the 2008 election:
Congratulations, President . . . McCain, by LS
Which included this:
A week ago ("Don't Look Now . . . But There Won't Be an Obama Swag-Bag"), I warned that the numbers in the early voting were not sufficient for the Messiah to win---not in Colorado, not in Florida, and at the time, barely enough to carry California. Since then, the numbers in CO have improved for Obama, but in my view not nearly enough. The numbers in Florida remain daunting for him, and California still is stunningly close in terms of Democrat/Republican splits. Based on that, and some other factors, I predicted there would be no Obama victory, and no Obama "Swag-Bag." (Did anyone see the Obama voter who said the Messiah would pay off her mortgage and pay for her gas!?)
The developments in the past week have, if anything, strengthened my conviction that McCain will be inaugurated next January.
We should all be very humble and careful about predictions, especially on the internet.