The death rate is not calculated on the basis of who has been tested, but on confirmed cases.
As of this morning, the worldwide death rate is 6.149%. The US death rate is 3.888%. This is a LOT higher than the seasonal influenza death rate. It’s even higher than the 1917-1919 H1N1 influenza pandemic death rate.
Don’t take this lightly. If we stop the efforts to control the spread, millions will die.
“The death rate is not calculated on the basis of who has been tested, but on confirmed cases...”
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Mama always said “Assumption is the Mother of all Foul Ups”. She actually used stronger language. Seriously, for COVID-19 all the data needed for the correct denominator is not yet known. Most of the missing data are the number of infected but not yet “confirmed”. That missing data will be known, in a statistically valid manner, in the coming weeks and will yield a HUGELY LOWER death rate.
As of this morning, the worldwide death rate is 6.149%. The US death rate is 3.888%. This is a LOT higher than the seasonal influenza death rate. It’s even higher than the 1917-1919 H1N1 influenza pandemic death rate.
Don’t take this lightly. If we stop the efforts to control the spread, millions will die.
The 3.88 is based on those who were in the hospital. Of those who go to the hospital I believe more die from the flu. Over 6%.
Time to start letting go of the panic....reality isn’t even close to any of the models and with enough folks aware of the relative ease of avoiding it, it’s time to wake up from the nightmare and get on with life.
That is only as concerns confirmed cases, which are usually those who have symptoms, versus all those who are estimated to be infected, and it is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like], and which random testing helps substantiate. Enter Iceland:
Iceland has tested one-tenth of its population for coronavirus at random and found HALF of people have the disease without realising... 4/12/2020, 10:33:43 AM · by L.A.Justice · 67 replies Daily Mail ^ | April 11, 2020 | Ryan Fahey Iceland has tested one-tenth of its population for coronavirus at random and found that half of people have the disease without realising. They also discovered that 1,600 people have been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak. Of these cases, there were only seven deaths, indicating a fatality rate of just 0.004 per cent, which is significantly lower than other countries, including the UK. The findings were made during Iceland's rigorous testing campaign, conducted with the help of Reykjavik-based biopharmaceutical company deCODE genetics, which has seen 10 per cent of the 364,413 population swabbed. Cf. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/