Studies: The Shutdown Is NOT Lives Vs. Dollars, It’s Lives Vs. Lives

“If you’d like to die for the sake of the economy you go right ahead and do that. I, on the other hand, have no intention of sacrificing myself or any of my family or friends for the economy.”

This common sentiment, expressed on Facebook, is the wrong formulation. It is the false equation of money or lives. It’s not only wrong, it’s deadly.

Here’s how: Unemployment increases the death rate. This is a known truism among economists — who are not much en vogue right now but economics really needs to be. It turns out, this correlation has been studied extensively since at least the 1970s. Maybe earlier. That it is true is not in doubt. The only question is how much does it increase deaths. What’s the ratio?

According to one meta-analysis of 42 studies involving 20 million people — I told you there are a lot — the risk of death increases 63 percent when you lose your job. Please note, not 63 percentage points, but 63 percent from a fairly small percentage. However, when applied to raw numbers the totals become surprising, as we will get to shortly.

From the meta-analysis from National Center for Biotechnology Information abstract: “We extracted 235 mortality risk estimates from 42 studies, providing data on more than 20 million persons. The mean hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was 1.63 among HRs adjusted for age and additional covariates. The mean effect was higher for men than for women. Unemployment was associated with an increased mortality risk for those in their early and middle careers, but less for those in their late-career.”

A controlled study at the University of Helsinki concluded: “In a recent study, an excess mortality of 47 percent was observed among men unemployed or working part-time for reasons other than illness after adjustment for age, geographic region, social class, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, weight and known pre-existing disease.” So this study backed out as many factors as possible to isolate the impact of just being unemployed.

There are mountains of these studies. It’s astounding that apparently none of our intrepid media members have ventured to search this out and report on it.

So what are the actual numbers? Well that’s a lot trickier. The range I’ve found in this research goes from a few thousand up to 37,000 deaths for every one percent increase in the unemployment rate.

And it’s dicey because even the unemployment rate is iffy being dependent on the labor participation rate — the total number of people employed divided by the total size of the labor force. When people get discouraged and stop looking for work, they are no longer counted as unemployed because they are no longer in the labor force. Those non-workers who are not labeled unemployed anymore would probably also have some increase in the death rate, but I can find no studies of that segment, perhaps because it is so malleable.

The high end number of estimated deaths comes from a 2011 textbook called “The American Economy: How It Works And How It Doesn’t,” by Wade L. Thomas and Robert B. Carson. Citing Bluestone, Harrison and Baker’s book, “The Causes and Consequences of Economic Dislocation,” they conclude that for every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, there are 37,000 deaths — the largest single source coming from heart attacks, presumably from stress, but another 1,000 from suicides and another 650 from homicides. The rest are not categorized, likely due to a lack of underlying data.

On the lower end, if you take data from the Great Recession, you find that the unemployment rate in 2015 had returned to its level before the financial crisis and downturn in 2009. (Remember, this lowered unemployment rate was with a greatly diminished labor participation rate, which is why it did not “feel” like a strong economy.) In those seven years, inclusive, there was an increase of 195,000 deaths in total, which means an average of 27,900 deaths per year. The unemployment was different each year, so we cannot say how much correlates to a percentage point, but clearly much less than 37,000. But this is back-of-the-napkin figuring and the actual studies are more reliable.

What all these studies conclude, to varying degrees, is that this economic shutdown will, absolutely, kill Americans just as COVID-19 is killing Americans. The rate of death due to forced unemployment is unknown, and maybe cannot be known, although I hope it will be researched a lot more after this unique event so we can understand the trade-offs next time.

Economists such as Larry Kudlow use a rule of thumb of 10,000 deaths for every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. That doesn’t seem unreasonable given the study ranges. The U.S. unemployment rate may surpass 30% in the second quarter of 2020 due to the broad shutdown. That’s higher than the Great Depression.

So if we apply the 10,000 rule just for ease of estimating, and start with a 3 percent unemployment rate, we can estimate that the 27 percentage point increase in unemployment could cost 270,000 lives over the course of a year. That is now much higher than the estimates of COVID-19’s death toll.

Few people think we will be shut down at this level for a year, but what will be the rate of increase once we re-start? That will not be overnight. We can see how, right now, almost assuredly the shutdown itself is taking American lives and will take thousands more.

Unfortunately Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that we cannot start to “relax” social distancing until there are “no new cases, no deaths.” This is a horrific formulation — the syndrome that arises from someone who is only looking at one side of an equation and who’s held the same job since 1984.

Fauci’s formulation would keep us either in a lockdown or social distancing that includes closed restaurants and public areas, for many months or even years, which would undoubtedly mean multiple times more deaths from the cure than from the disease.

So the proper formulation is not to suggest we are trading money for lives. Everyone can feel quite righteous about that — particularly if they are not living paycheck to paycheck. But clearly the idea that we would be “dying for the economy” is just ignorant.

The proper formulation is that we are trading lives for lives. We are trying to save lives from COVID-19, but we are costing lives from unemployment. How many is unknown, but as death estimates from the coronavirus in the U.S. continue to fall, it makes the correct formulation, with perhaps better numbers than I have gleaned, all the more critical.

The question our leaders need to ask and get an answer for is: What do the death toll estimates and unemployment numbers look like if we transition to practicing social distancing, no handshaking, no major events, but otherwise everyone younger than, say, 65 returns to work — including restaurants and retail — while those over 65 or with preexisting conditions remain self-quarantined until we have very effect treatments or a vaccine?

At some point, we will be killing more people by closing the economy than we are saving by closing the economy — if we are not already there.

You know...I got all this...but here is the rub. I have never given Flu any second thought. This disease, upon reading the various and diverse symptoms and ways to death causes me to stop and consider. My wife and I fit all the various points on the checklist, except diabetic. (So we got that going for us)... Thus, I do not yet chance catching this virus.

Once there is a standard treatment, and it looks like there will be one very soon, then I can get back to work at fairs...the most crowded place on the planet besides subways...

At the risk of repeating myself too many times on this board, dead from other than coronavirus is still dead. Dead, unintended, from a mitigation to coronavirus is still dead. And dead unaccounted for, because you don’t care to look, is still dead. If you insist on moralizing and shaming people for disagreeing with you, don’t be surprised by the push-back. There are intuitive, plausible data to back them up.

This whole article is a textbook strawman argument. Having people killed because of greedy selfish people exposing the innocent is not anywhere the same as people CHOOSING suicide. Suicide is ALWAYS a choice, don’t bother trying to convince me or any other devout Christian otherwise God defines it as a choice of man with zero predetermination. The stress inducted heart attacks would be a valid argument except for stress is also a choice we can put our faith in the Father and let him stress for us. We will not let people starve in this country we have over 80 means tested welfare programs our people on those programs have as high of a standard of living as the European middle-class.

The economy will return there will always be a need for service workers and with that kind of work that literally anyone can do from the high school education level up to PhD level there’s always some form of work for those willing to do it. Again no one is going to starve in modern America you might have to downsize for a while but no where in the constitution does it guarantee a economy of ones liking nor even a strong economy. What is in the constitution is the right to life and the government is doing it’s duty to protect life by mandated sheltering in place.

We survived the great depression without any of the social safety nets we now have we will survive this depression as well. If anything there will be VAST opportunities to fill business niches vacated by incumbents once the recovery starts it will be an entrepreneurial field day.

“I have never given Flu any second thought. This disease, upon reading the various and diverse symptoms and ways to death causes me to stop and consider. My wife and I fit all the various points on the checklist, except diabetic....Thus, I do not yet chance catching this virus.”

THANK YOU! Finally, a common sense approach.

I remember some of your comments earlier when the coronavirus was starting to spread and things were closing. You worried about not being able to attend some events...one in particular that was a big one for you income-wise.

I don’t either want to expose my wife and I to this deadly disease. I don’t care if the common flu takes out more people per year, or more people died in car crashes today, or physician malpractice takes out three times the people that the coronavirus does. There’s just too much BS floating around now to have faith and confidence in ANYBODY spouting off about this is the right way, or you’re stupid for doing that, or your depriving me of my GOD-GIVEN CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS YOU COMMUNIST!

Nope...I’m staying put and limiting my time with others. I’m following the rules, generally...although I did put a bag of grass clippings in the regular garbage at the curb today..a big no no for the city.

You stay safe!

Government “recommends”... it’s the states that are mandating... and not all states are mandating...now what?

When is it over? until everyone is vaccinated ?(if there is a vaccination) what if there isn’t one for a year or more...now what?

I’m guessing we’ll be given the ok to come out of our hidey-holes long before a vaccine...if so, now what?
those who caught it and survived are immune, the rest of us? still innocent and still exposed...now what?

Japanese soldiers from WWII hiding out in island caves were found as late as 2005.

You’ll eventually be found.
Stay in your hidey-hole.

When Trump sez lets get back to work the next left mantra the media and rat politicians will be screaming is “ trump wants you dead don’t go back to work” go on or stay on unemployment, keep those #’s high, apply for food stamps welfare and other social services HELP US COLLAPSE THE EVIL VILE CAPITOLIST SYSTEM

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.