Posted on 04/08/2020 2:13:51 AM PDT by wastoute
How false-negatives in diagnostic testing lead to the release of infected people, motivate extreme containment measures have been implemented, explain why official figures are too low. The COVID-19 outbreak, explained with Bayes’ Rule.
(Excerpt) Read more at towardsdatascience.com ...
“The COVID-19 outbreak, explained with Bayes’ Rule.”
This article doesn’t explain the outbreak with Baye’s Rule, but rather describes interpretation of test results using Baye’s Rule. Fun, if that is your thing (it is mine), but I don’t see many conclusions drawn, for all the cute dynamic graphs and equations shown. The one conclusion I see made, in a quick reading, is that it’s hard to make decisions when your tests are unreliable. But we already know that.
This is from February
CDC has a hard time getting a handle on testing. Note Bene that the Chinese test used by much of Italy has a thirty percent false negative. The test finally pushed out here in the US has a two percent false negative
I would note that NO virus in history has continued unabated. They burn out. Sometimes because of “herd immunity”. Sometimes because of vaccination. Sometimes because people change their behavior (Fars Law)
I think the more interesting commentary would be how do you convince people that life is full of risk? There is no such thing as zero risk yet folks want zero risk. It doesn’t exist. At some point the cost is too high.
Never mind Bayesian theories.
Use Berra’s (Yogi) rule: “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”
I love that guy.
You cannot convince Oprah’s audience that life is full of risk. After all, they got a wedding full of unicorns and fairy dust.
I’m about to give up. I spent literally decades at America’s finest schools and hospitals and I’ve got a freeper telling me to really learn something I need to watch a YouTube video of a guy who obviously couldn’t get into Med School so he got a PhD in Nutrition and still couldn’t get into Med School so became a DO who “practiced ER Medicine” but somehow found “Weight Loss and Nutrition” a more lucrative field of endeavor...and I’ve got a freeper insisting that I need to “learn from that guy”.
The Profession of Medicine is dead.
Got a question you probably can’t answer but I’m putting it out here in case someone knows...
When you go to donate blood, are you tested for covid19? Seems like that would entail a lot of tests, but if they don’t test, how do they know they’re not getting infected blood?
Bingo. That woman has done more harm to this country than an invading army. The old term was oprahsizing. The belief that if we all just got along that the world would be perfect. It was the genesis of the media and the Lefts push for ‘bi-partisanship’.
I don't believe that wastoute. You'll be fine. Medicine will survive. We should all take a break get some rest or something. My wife has been after me along those lines, I try to listen to her, without allowing her to think that she has any real influence over me, of course.
You are right to warn us about "alternative medicine" which has let the world down over and again. People are dying, I don't like it, but God is still on the throne.
FreeRepublic will be fine. We are like the adult children of the same family in the waiting room, fussing with each other, yelling over some medical issue while Momma, our beloved USA, is in the ICU. When we need to pull together to save her, you bet we will!
You have earned respect and gratitude from more than a few here including me. But I ain't sayin' I always agree with ya now.
Bayes Rule and Testing. Great article!
When I was a young Neurosurgery Resident I got a call at 3 AM to see a patient in the ER, they didn’t specify why. CT was on my way to the ER. It my “usual practice” to look at the patient last but, hey, it was 3 AM. The CT was impressive. The patient had a large, necrotic, obvious Glioblastoma that was causing a midline shift of 1 cm. And the cerebral peduncles were smashed into the clinoids. My immediate thought was, “Holy Crap!” I ran down the stairs expecting to see a team of doctors and nurses descending like paratroopers on the patient. I ran into the ER ( a large room with 20 bays) and could see immediately which one was the patient. No team of “Navy Seals”. But he was still readily identifiable. He was the one lying by himself on a stretcher with his left arm and leg lying off the stretcher toward the floor and half of his face sliding over his ear.
I grabbed the arm of a nurse trotting past and said, “I need him to have an IV, Foley, and we need to intubate now. She replied, “Sorry, not my patient.” I answered just loudly enough a couple ER residents could hear me.
“If I am the only person in this room that realizes this man is dying I CAN just leave.”
That got their attention and we proceeded to save his life.
***We need to KNOW AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE the best estimate on the total number of CV INFECTIONS IN THE USA.
This flu season: 39 million INFECTIONS, 400K hospitalizations, and 24K deaths from the flu. Fatalities as a % of those infected from the flu = 0.06%.
Current USA CV stats: 400K positive tests, 12.8K deaths. BUT WHAT ARE THE NUMBER OF CV INFECTIONS IN THE US? It is in the MILLIONS but is it 5 million? 50 million? We don’t know yet but need to find out ASAP.
BOTTOM LINE IS, THE FATALITIES AS A % OF THOSE INFECTED WITH CV WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE FATALITIES AS A % OF THOSE TESTING POSITIVE WITH CV. We know this because there are a large number of asymptomatic people with CV who have shown no symptoms or were sick for a day or two and recovered.
If the CV fatalities as a % of those infected is as low as we suspect (0.1 to 0.2%) then the CV SPREADS MORE RAPIDLY than was estimated and is LESS LETHAL than we thought (as H1N1 was in 2009-2010). America can then quit this media-driven panic and get back to work. The health of the US economy is at stake. We need ANTIBODY tests done on sample populations as quickly as possible to get this data.
90% of those who have died from CV are over the age of 75 and have pre-existing conditions.
The combination of Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Zinc has been working with thousands of patients worldwide.
God bless you and your families.
[That got their attention and we proceeded to save his life.]
Friends I know who recovered from CV with Hydroxychloriquine, Azithromycin, and steriods.
What say you Dr. Fauci? Do you need three years of clinical trials to determine that a 75 year old malaria drug is not harmful to Americans dying with CV and has actually saved thousands of lives? You look like a DNC/Soros/Gates clown.
Sorry, just saw this. We saved his life that night. I did a ER Burr hole (the only one in my life) and put a ventriculostomy in the necrotic, cystic portion of the tumor draining out about 100 ml of necrotic, straw colored fluid. It immediately gave his brain “room” and he woke up immediately. We did do surgery and IIRC he did die from his disease a year or so later.
[Sorry, just saw this. We saved his life that night. I did a ER Burr hole (the only one in my life) and put a ventriculostomy in the necrotic, cystic portion of the tumor draining out about 100 ml of necrotic, straw colored fluid. It immediately gave his brain “room” and he woke up immediately. We did do surgery and IIRC he did die from his disease a year or so later.]
And it’s good to see you back on Free Republic. Given the unusually wide reach of the pandemic, I was beginning to wonder.
It’s a funny thing but they have this meeting at just about every national meeting where all the neurosurgeons who have treated 100 Glioblastoma share their experience because there is a magic number there. About every neurosurgeon who has done 100 has ONE that lived. Just got better and survived. No one knows why but it happens.
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