Posted on 04/04/2020 1:40:07 AM PDT by wastoute
Ok. Today’s Q&A. What is the topic? Aquarium cleaner? Dog worm medicine?
Models crashing. Logistically it helps to know where resources are needed ahead of the need becoming desperate. Remember, what we are trying to save here is government. The economy is what it is. I can picture a “rosy scenario” in which our efforts begin to really pay off and the rest of the country pretty much is spared what NYC is experiencing. New Yorkers have always said there’s. No place else on earth... for once let’s hope so.
...and remember we are looking at the # of deaths closely but the # of seriously ill is multiples of that. So there were 1,300 new deaths in NYC yesterday. There were probably 5,000 new seriously ill. The dead don’t require much “resources”. It is the seriously ill that do. Birx and Fauci and all the rest have to logistically prepare for every urban center to experience what NYC is. That might not happen. It would be great. But if it does their job is to get the resources where they are needed in order to keep the # new deaths as small a possible.
See the number of COVID-19 patients in New York hospitals below.
New York
Cases 102,870
Deaths 2,935
Recovered 6,142
Hospital 20,952
Active 93,793
Was it fish tank cleaner or fish “scale itch” medication that the couple ingested? I have heard it both ways.
http://www.americanaquariumproducts.com/Aquatronics.html#super-ich
All things considered....you might have better asset management and doctor/nurse ratios in the more rural areas of Alabama, than NY City. This should trigger people to ask some fundamental questions about life and the big city.
Look at “Cases by Age Range.” It’s the only record of its type that I’ve found. Notice the numbers of patients in their 20s. A day or two ago, a doctor involved in making policy in that state was interviewed and said that only hospital patients are being tested now.
https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/results.php
As I have said. I was a boy from New MExico, married a girl I met my freshman year of college. She was from NOrth Caldwell, a place many of you are familiar with. My knowledge of NYC was what I saw on Midnight Cowboy. We went to visit her folks for our first Christmas and she insisted I go with her “To The City”. We rode the bus down, what was it? Bloomfield Ave.? Orange. To The Port Authority. Can you imagine looking up 42nd Ave. as a 20 year old boy form New Mexico. El Paso and Albuquerque were the largest cities I had ever seen. I knew a little about Public Health and even then NYC looked like a bomb waiting to go off. I have never been back, never wanted to go.
I found the comment that only hospital patients are being tested now to be a little odd (woman doctor in radio interview), and notice the number tested on the same page.
Well, they have drive up places where they seem to be testing. I would imagine for once human desires are motivating the correct response. Look at this like a battle. Their INfantry “came ashore” in NYC, they are spreading out from that center. Our testing is “reconnaissance. We want to know where the enemy is advancing so we can marshal our infantry and armor to meet him. Sounds like the rest of the country is pretty much spared right now, Detroit, N’Awlins, Miami, getting started. Let’s hope the “enemy” doesn’t advance any further.
It really doesn’t matter. If we had a 100% cure (snake bite treatment?) that could “save” a person in extremis we could stomp the deaths down but everything else would still be happening, the seriously ill, the resources required. The ONLY way to stop and epidemic is quit feeding it.
Thank you for that explanation. It really clicks for me (former 12B). :)
I was asked to attend the Army’s Advanced Course for Officers. Months of learning how to create Op Orders. Until you’ve done it you cannot possibly know what a gargantuan, complex task it is. You have to anticipate EVERYTHING or some 20 year old GI gets stuck, out of fuel and ammo, under enemy fire.
I had lived most of my life and never been to NY City. I had to fly back to the US for my 30th high school reunion, and the airport of entry was JFK (NY). Well, on this July day, a huge storm front had come through, and shut down air operations all throughout the region. So the airline said at 2 PM in the afternoon....that’s it. You are stuck in NY...not just the next day, but for two entire days.
Me with zero knowledge of the city...no hotel reservation...no idea of getting from the airport to any ‘safe’ hotel.
I ended up at mid-town Manhattan and had one of those rare adventures that you get in life...discovering the subway system, the deli operations, and Central Park. Then I left 48 hours later. It was enough to convince me that it’s like a Disneyland operation run by 5th-grade kids, and everyone seems to be on some type of medication or acting in some Broadway play.
I think it is a very appropriate analogy. Trump said, “This is War.” Every Op Order created starts out at the top, “The Commander’s Intent”. Trump has issued his “Commander’s Intent”. Most people haven’t woken up to the fact yet but right now “Save the Government” is it. Because if our logistical teams cannot match the demand and resources the health care system isn’t “over run” but completely gone. The government itself won’t last much longer than that.
See what I’m saying? We are burning through resources in places now at apparently an astonishing rate. Most hospitals don’t have more than a few patients in Isolation at a time. Right now it sounds like they have thousands in NYC alone.
My Dad was born in Texaco, NM. Bataan Death March survivor. Married the nurse taking care of him back in NM. She was from N.J. I am retired on my little organic farm in WV, married to my wife from N. J. She is a P.A. Worked as a medico legal death investigator in NYC before I met her.Chief of Death Investigations elsewhere. She does herbs, crochets, puts up with me and has never looked back. She saw and went through a lot.
I grow and roast a years supply of NM heritage pueblo green chili each year. It is in our blood. I get the plants from a guy in . . .yep NJ
Life is strange and beautiful.
Actually, I miss remembered, our trip to NYC was our 2nd Christmas. The first Christmas we drove to a ridge in NJ where there had once been a casino in the 30s. “Eagle Ridge” or Rock Ridge”, I can’t remember. You could see the skyline 20 miles away. That’s as close as she could get me in the first year.
My dad was a mining engineer in Carlsbad. Go Cavemen!
I wonder why those numbers are so far off from what the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model projects. They’re even outside the uncertainty range. For NY the model shows around 60,000 hospital beds needed now, maybe 45,000 at the bottom of the uncertainty range. I probably just don’t understand modeling. I feel like I’m missing something.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.