Posted on 03/30/2020 2:55:56 AM PDT by dalight
When considering that possibility patterns in CDC’s regular ILI (Influenza Like Illness) surveillance data become interesting. I’ve taken their data, and applied my meager Excel skills to chart out some things that surprised me. Going into this, I expected to see mortality rates somewhere bump. Prior to January we weren’t looking for this virus. We’ve only had useful testing capability for a few weeks now. Given the information we have on disease progression, I assumed that there would be an upward trend in Pneumonia mortality as without looking for and testing for SARS-COV-2, victims should have been classified as deaths due to pneumonia. So I charted it, with the last 6 years of data published by CDC.
CDC calls week 40 of a year the beginning of the flu season, so all my charts are set to begin in week 40 of one year and end in week 39 of the next, showing years as flu seasons.
There is the customary increase at week 1, I assume related to holiday festivities and travel. However the 2019-2020 season shows week by week pneumonia mortality to be low compared to the last few years, which is not what I expected. What I truly did not expect was the sharp decline over the last few weeks.
I next looked at all-cause mortality. Perhaps COVID-19 deaths hadn’t been captured in the pneumonia data. But surely something this virulent would show somewhere. I was again, surprised.
(Excerpt) Read more at accordingtohoyt.com ...
US Flu Cases Increased by 4 Million Over the Last Week
The most recent statistics, collected through the week ending January 25, 2020, report that there have been 19 million cases of influenza during US 2019-20 flu season. This is an increase of 4 million cases since the last report.
Additionally, the CDC has recorded 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from the flu thus far. Based on these figures, severity is not considered high at this point in the flu season.
Over the past week the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia rose to 6.7% but remains below the epidemic threshold of 7.2%. Additionally, the hospitalization rate rose from 24.1 per 100,000 to 29.7 per 100,000, which is considered to be consistent with this time of year from recent seasons.
5,000 is still a good number...
Weird site. Anyway, IIRC a respiratory therapist in NO who has seen many patients said that Covid-19 seems to tell the flu to essentially get out of town. Which is also weird.
I figured you were probably thinking about general aviation and no doubt that number is down, too. Everything that keeps people indoors is going to drive down deaths — except maybe slipping on the bar of soap in the tub or catching on fire at the stove. Maybe we’ll see an uptick in cardiac arrests from all the new couch potatoes.
How about a more likely and more simple explanation?
The awareness of the importance of hygiene and hygienic practices resulted swiftly in a decrease in the number of cases of flu, and a decrease in the fatality.
All kinds of theories. With the huge amounts of data that are coming in the epidemiologists are going to be busy for a long time.
Apple to oranges...We're far more prepared than Italy. We have drugs that seem to shorten and/or cure patients approved by the FDA.
“And companies need to give sick leave to their employees so the employee will have an incentive to stay home till they are better.”
yes, that would absolutely be necessary ...
“Lots of these may become semi-permanent until people get over-confident, memories fade, and we revert to what were normal practices.”
unfortunately,that’s possible as well ...
Excellent point.
What may change is that Americans will begin to wear masks and wash their hands during Flu season, and I predict that Hydroxychloroquine + zinc pills will become a household item.
And, this will cause the Medicare implosion to come that much faster. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Hard to wrap my head around January 25. These charts are deep into March.. so what ever was going on in January, it didn’t lead to more deaths..in February or March.
Yea.. but I hate it when I see an extra zero on number then make a fool out of myself.
And, frankly, that drop can’t make it though this week as the Corona deaths have finally become significant. One can hope that in spite of the negative press, Dr’s aren’t stupid and they are rolling out Chloroquine + zinc based treatments across the country as we speak.
And, finally testing is going to swell as the 15 min test kits hit the various labs and Dr’s offices who have the test units to use them. In the end, rapid testing and Hydroxychloroquine + zinc administered before the symptoms require intense interventions will end this whole business.
There is another way to interpret this data:
Rather than the government’s social distancing response saving lives, it is the fact that deaths which would otherwise have been attributed to seasonal flu, are now being attributed to Covid-19.
“I think a significant part of the data in is garbage.”
I agree.
One of the most unscientific aspects of Coronavirus reporting is the deeply flawed assignment of cause of death. If Covid-19 is present in a patient at time of death, or post-mortim, Covod-19 is being assigned as cause of death.
This is a glaring statistical error and serves only those who have reason to want to hype this outbreak into something beyond what it is.
Data on reported flu cases must be practically meaningless, because the vast majority of people don’t see a doctor for the flu - how is it going to get reported?
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