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If current measures remain in place, by Easter Sunday COVID-19 will have 99% run its course in the USA
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ ^
| Mar 26, 2020
| self
Posted on 03/26/2020 1:04:07 PM PDT by NobleFree
The USA case data now fits a logistic curve better than an exponential - and shows us within a few days of the inflection point, with 99%+ of the forecast total of 180K cases having happened by Easter Sunday.
TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19; didnotagewell
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1
posted on
03/26/2020 1:04:07 PM PDT
by
NobleFree
To: NobleFree
Thank Goodness.
Thank You for the info NobleFree.
2
posted on
03/26/2020 1:08:01 PM PDT
by
KC_Lion
(Me and my homies woulda been stackin' bodies by now- G. Washington.)
To: NobleFree
A plot of the data would be nice.
3
posted on
03/26/2020 1:08:49 PM PDT
by
beethovenfan
(Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin)
To: NobleFree
4
posted on
03/26/2020 1:08:54 PM PDT
by
Leep
(Everyday is Trump Day!)
To: NobleFree
There are not going to be 180K cases of coronavirus. The flu runs between 9 million and 45 million cases a year in the US, bro.
5
posted on
03/26/2020 1:08:55 PM PDT
by
Fido969
(In!)
To: KC_Lion
6
posted on
03/26/2020 1:09:44 PM PDT
by
Nifty
To: NobleFree
If anyone needs toilet paper:
7
posted on
03/26/2020 1:11:45 PM PDT
by
4Liberty
(BERNIE SANDERS: A CRUSTY, ANTI-AMERICAN WEIRDO. - Kurt Schlichter)
To: NobleFree
It's always been known that epidemics follow a sigmoid or logistic curve. They simply run out of people to infect, you get past an infection point, and the derivative starts heading back to zero. No surprise there.
In the "logistic curve," the initial stage of growth is approximately exponential (geometric); then, as saturation begins, the growth slows to linear (arithmetic), and at maturity, growth stops.
The questions are, of course, when do we hit the inflection point and when does the slope get below some acceptable level?
To: ProtectOurFreedom
“infection point” — LOL. Nope, INFLECTION point. I think that was autocorrect!
To: 4Liberty
To: NobleFree
How is that possible when so many people are not being exposed?
11
posted on
03/26/2020 1:15:36 PM PDT
by
BenLurkin
(The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
To: beethovenfan
If you can suggest a place to upload the plot, I'd be happy to.
12
posted on
03/26/2020 1:18:23 PM PDT
by
NobleFree
("law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual")
To: BenLurkin
How is that possible when so many people are not being exposed?Sorry, I'm afraid I don't follow your question.
13
posted on
03/26/2020 1:19:38 PM PDT
by
NobleFree
("law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual")
To: NobleFree
All this for only 180,000 cases when we get 40 million regular flu cases with 40,000 deaths each flu season. If that is the case,do we really need a 2 trillion dollar package for this? Once Congress gets their hands on the money they will never return the unused portion to the treasury.
14
posted on
03/26/2020 1:19:41 PM PDT
by
chuckee
To: nutmeg
15
posted on
03/26/2020 1:20:42 PM PDT
by
nutmeg
(Mega prayers for Rush Limbaugh)
To: NobleFree
Not without a vaccine, natural herd immunity or effective medicines.
The only one that seems remotely possible at this time is effective medicines.
To: Fido969
There are not going to be 180K cases of coronavirus.That's where the data is trending.
The flu runs between 9 million and 45 million cases a year in the US, bro.
In no other year have mitigation measures like 2020's been in place.
17
posted on
03/26/2020 1:22:24 PM PDT
by
NobleFree
("law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual")
To: ProtectOurFreedom
my online basic statistics class didn’t do me much good...
18
posted on
03/26/2020 1:22:33 PM PDT
by
cherry
To: NobleFree
An hour ago they detected our rural coast community’s first case of Wuhan flu. Health care worker has it. We were one of the coastal communities inundated with tourists from Washington and Portland breaching the quarantine.
To: desertfreedom765
Not without a vaccine, natural herd immunity or effective medicines.I didn't say we'd stay at 180K if current mitigation measures were lifted.
20
posted on
03/26/2020 1:24:00 PM PDT
by
NobleFree
("law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual")
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