Posted on 03/21/2020 4:27:03 PM PDT by Hojczyk
As to contagiousness:
Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine [finds]:
If you have a COVID-19 patient in your household, your risk of developing the infection is about 10%….If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%
According to Dr. Auwaerter, these transmission rates are very similar to the seasonal flu.
As to asymptomatic spread:
The majority of cases see symptoms within a few days, not two weeks as originally believed.
On true asymptomatic spread, the data is still unclear but increasingly unlikely. Two studies point to a low infection rate from pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. One study said 10% of infections come from people who don’t show symptoms, yet. Another WHO study reported 1.2% of confirmed cases were truly asymptomatic. Several studies confirming asymptotic spread have ended up disproven.
It is important to note there is a difference between “never showing symptoms” and “pre-symptomatic” and the media is promoting an unproven narrative. Almost all people end up in the latter camp within five days, almost never the former. It is very unlikely for individuals with COVID-19 to never show symptoms. WHO and CDC claim that asymptomatic spread isn’t a concern and quite rare.
As to fatality rates:
As the US continues to expand testing, the case fatality rate will decline over the next few weeks. There is little doubt that serious and fatal cases of COVID-19 are being properly recorded. What is unclear is the total size of mild cases.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
Good article, better than anything from the NYTs et al., on this subject.
Why is the whole world hysterical?
Makes sense. If a virus invades your body it wants to get about the business of reproducing right away, not hang out for two weeks.
Just FYI, while Powerline is usually excellent, Paul is often not. He leans never-Trumper.
Because we have been bombarded daily for months now with opinions and speculation, rarely facts.
The media never met a fire, a car accident, a disease it or a republican president that it didn't cover to obsession.
These figures (linked to an article on the CDC website) were published in one of our local media outlet and Evergreen Hospital’s website for a few days earlier this month. Since then no mention of it in our media. I live close to the epicenter in WA State. Our newspaper should at least link or report data from Johns Hopkins on how many cases have recovered. Not a word! There is so much hysteria, but I also don’t know what to believe, so we are being very careful.
Very encouraging estimates. I'm trying to square this with the recent reports of police becoming infected in NYC, Chicago, and a couple of other places.
The 14 day time frame is excessively cautious and just causes extra stress.
I’ve read that the median period is 5 days, from exposure to symptoms.
The media would have us believe there were thousands of typhoid Mary's walking around with the corona virus.-Tom
Why are some many entertainment types “reportedly” getting the Wuhan Virus?
And how does it square with that attorney in NY that infected 40 people in a week or two?
Because it’s the new AIDS — it’s the cool virus of the 2019-2020 season.
I have only seen a handful diagnosed, frankly why not more?
Need empirical data that has been run through the FDA, DHS, KMA and the FBI to be legit
Yes and the 7 members of a NJ family who were infected from a family meal, 4 dead, two still on ventilator support, one recovering.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/new-jersey-coronavirus-family-members-killed/index.html
I have not been impressed by Paul, though I do read Powerline frequently. Something that would put POTUS in a bad light would appeal to him.
Doesn’t it have something to do with how the Chinese Virus chokes ERs and ICUs in a way that seasonal flu does not?
Those stats also suggest it’s not as easily transmitted as believed.
Basically they are saying that in order to catch this, you have to truly come in contact with someone who is obviously sick, or they have to cough or sneeze on you. Otherwise your chance of infection is remote.
Also cops frequently come in close contact with persons who are not very careful about personal hygiene....fighting while arresting, etc.
They also have sick or dirty people in their patrol cars or paddy wagons..
Don't have the link, but just the other day some guy coughed or spit on a cop during an arrest and bragged that he had the wu flu and was giving it to the cop,
yeah. this long-term asymptomatic stuff never made any sense to me—that a novel virus infecting a virgin subject would magically not reproduce—given no resistance from doing so.
and if there was something in the virgin subject stopping the virus, then that person couldn’t transmit like a person symptomatic with a high viral load. and therefore wouldn’t be much of a threat.
for me, this article has the ring of truth.
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