Posted on 02/27/2020 9:24:11 AM PST by Vermont Lt
As the person who posts the daily Live thread on COVIOD-19, I am often pointed at as a ring leader for the "hype" and "hysteria". I don't think its fair, but I get it.
I want to make a couple of over arching statements based on my life experience working in hospitals, emergency management and along side municipal and federal emergency preparedness organizations and departments.
My work experience in hospital emergency planning and working with local, state, and federal officials provides me with a perspective that is different than most. The planning for these is things is pretty unemotional and clinical. My specific experience was in logistical communications systems, support operations, and overall planning of patient flow through the care process.
I am not a doctor. But I've spent way too much time in the clinical setting dealing with them on setting up things like communications, escalations, triage systems, emergency communications with local, state, and federal officials.
So, those are my bona fides...here are my comments.
First...More than 99% of the people reading this are NOT going to die from this virus. Most of you will barely get sick.
Please let that be your overall mind set. If you are elderly or have respiratory or heart issues...take care of yourself. You have a greater risk. Do some reading on it.
The normal flu precautions are the key thing. Hygiene is critical. Wash your hands. In the hospital setting the phrase is, "Wash in, wash out." Nurses and others will wash their hands when then come into a room and when they leave. This is their protocol and should be your guide.
Second, throughout the rest of your life your primary goal should be: STAY OUT OF THE DAMNED HOSPITAL. If you can avoid going to the hospital on any given day of the week--avoid it. If things get sketchy and the system gets overwhelmed...stay away. Don't visit unless you really have to. Aside from the fact you are not going to die...your chances of dying skyrocket if you dismiss all of the guides for staying healthy and you have to go to the hospital.
Now...onto the "hysteria".
The danger of this whole thing is not that you are going to die. You aren't. If you do, write me and I will send you an apology.
The danger is cultural and economic.
We have already seen the start of the disruption of the supply chain from China. Just in time inventory should start showing some impact. We buy lots of parts and materials from China. China exports are down to the tune of millions of containers every month. Container companies are writing off refrigerated containers by the thousands as they sit on the docks in China--filled with rotting food and meat.
The inventory for most stores is less than a week. The inventory for factories is about a month. We are eating up the stocks we had. About 2/3s of what we normally have shipped to us are stopped. Even if the factory is working, the ports are not working in China. Soon Korea and Japan join that list.
In the US, when this starts breaking out in communities stuff is going to shut down. It will shut down over "abundance of caution ." You are all familiar with that phrase. Usually it means "we don't want to get sued." This time I think the concern is genuine.
Schools, sports, movies, factories, etc will start postponing or shutting down. This will range from your local high school to things like "The Final Four" or other large events. Think Church services.
So, will your school, office, factory get closed? Even if virus is not in your department, family, or class?
Now think of everything associated with shutting a complete economic system (local to national). Who is getting paid? Who isn't?
This is not going to be fair or make sense. It is just the way people act when their fears exceed their expectations.
This virus moves quickly and is pretty contagious in enclosed spaces. So, many people might get "sick." A few will get really sick. That is going to scare the crap out of people in your are. And they are going to react like a pack of wild animals.
Their fear is going to exceed their expectations.
So, think about what this means to YOU.
Worst-case probability is that you are going to have your school or place of business shut down for a couple of weeks. Can you live as you normally do without your kids in school, or cooped up in your apartment for two weeks?
Can you go with your current level of pills during this time?
Can you pay your bills?
You will not lose power. The natural gas lines will run. Your cable will run. The internet won't go down. Those systems run well with no one managing them.
Many stores will be open...but they may be disrupted as well.
In my area we get blizzards. Everyone has enough back up stuff to live through a blizzard. This would be twice that. That is my expectation.
This is the first social media pandemic. We know what is going on in China, partially through twitter. Is it real? Is it fake? How do you know?
They recently showed a video of a car being stopped at a check point in China. The driver tried to run the check point. Eventually, he was stopped and eventually subdued.
It was not real, as it had been suggested (and as it was presented and caused all sorts of Twitter-panic.). How did I know it was a drill....because as anyone who has every manned a containment or military check point like that will tell you...the person and car would have been shot the second it started moving through without stopping. I've drilled those--but I know plenty who have done it in real life.
My point is you have to think this stuff through and apply a reasonableness to it. You have to find sources you trust and respect. But, when a source is feeding your bullshit, you have to consider the source as well.
In the big picture expect the masses to freak out. I don't mean the people on FR, I mean the people who do not pay attention to anything but "The Bachelor." They are going to start screaming about the stuff I am telling you and the echo chamber of social media is going to amplify that by orders of 100.
Be prepared for that.
If you wash your hands, pay attention to your food stuffs; have enough to eat and drink for a while; make sure you have money to pay your bills if you are not able to work for a while...you will be fine. Consider it an early spring break.
Set your expectations! Have reasonable and educated expectations.
1. Social Media is going to go ballistic. Be prepared and understand what is real and what is "apocalypse" stuff.
2. If you normally take prescriptions that might be subject to disruption call your health care provider and ask for a refill. If you have enough...don't horde.
3. Don't horde more than you need to be prepared. My wife is a cancer patient and she has been wearing masks outside for months because people are nasty. She has three more months of chemo and a month of masks. Stupid people hording are putting us in a bind. Don't do it.
4. Question everything and understand what you can.
In the one of the Star Trek movies they use secret codes to remotely control their ship. At that point,one of the new crew is told, "You have to know how stuff works on a Starship."
I used that example in every training session and lecture I've given in the past 20 years.
People do not understand how their "starship" works. They accept what they are told. They do not pay attention to details.
"Learn how your stuff really works--not how its supposed to work."
Understand how a virus works. Understand where people are getting their information. Listen for incorrect or out of date information--and recognize it when it circles around next week in the form of a statement or rumor. It happens all too regularly. It will literally make you laugh or shake your head. Maybe both.
People will be late to the party. Help them.
Do not be so stuck in your ways to acknowledge when the person you thought was nuts two weeks ago, all of a sudden makes sense. Some have.
Finally, in the end this is about managing expectations. If you have none--you are going to be constantly surprise and caught unprepared.
In my opinion, on a range of expectations from the normal flu to a world ending apocalypse...this situation is this about 1.5 x the flu. Which is concerning, but not horrifying.
If you read to the end of this, question your expectations and why you have them. If you don't have expectations, you should start making some.
(And I am going to go donate to the Freepathon. I urge EVERYONE who has been reading these threads to make a contribution. FR has provided an amazing amount of balanced, not-crazy, information along with some good-natured and well needed humor. YOU owe it to Jim to support the effort.
Yeah if Covid-19 is R2-R4 (there are studies that adjust higher), then there has to be, there must be a giant pool of silently infected people who are asymptomatic from pillar to post.
The word “apocalypse” means revealed.
.
...if everyone had enough stuff for a few months, it would take a lot of pressure off the system...
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Had to shop today, so planned it as part one of a two-prong stock up, since I go to a larger city next week.
County seat in rural SW WI. Two regular grocery stores, one a Walmart. Parking lots were not full at noon. Plentiful food stuffs, but soups and tomato sauce shelves were obviously sparse.
DH was tasked with replenishing supplements. No problem.
I prep and always have. We still have N95s from the SARS episode. Nitrile gloves were available today. So was 91% alcohol. Great Value spray disinfectant was nearly gone, but the Lysol brand (2x the cost) was available).
There was no evident hysteria in either store and the traffic was light. Most shoppers appeared to be farm families. We’ll see what it’s like in a liberal town of 50+k on Tuesday.
A note for those stocking gasoline for generators: we’ve noticed in the past that the premium gas was going bad quickly, even with Stabil. We theorize it is because no one buys it and so it sits in the pump storage longer than regular. We plan to buy the next batch at a farmer’s co-op on the theory that it moves more quickly from those outlets.
Let us know what you find out next Tues.
Not only will you be elsewhere, but a lot may change in the matter of a few days.
Sounds pretty sensible - thanks for taking the time to write.
Thanks for your report.
RE: Generators
I heard about PRI-G fuel stabilizer and tried it...have a generator I use sporadically, so it becomes hard to start after a time. Put a tiny amount of PRI-G in the generator gas tank and it starts right up. I buy it at Amazon.
These jerry can are great, and they go on sale at the site...
https://www.roverparts.com/off-road-accessories/jerry-cans/GJC20K4/
If you might want to try non-ethanol gasoline, there are lists of stations in the US and Canada at this site...
flr
Let us know what you find out next Tues.
Not only will you be elsewhere, but a lot may change in the matter of a few days.
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Here is a shopping report from Tuesday, 3/320. I’m busy and not keeping up with the threads, so feel free to re-post wherever if you think it helpful
Shopping today in Lacrosse, WI. Went to Aldi’s and Woodman’s. Traffic seemed very light and shelves were fully stocked, although Aldi’s was restocking their specials. The kleenex/facial tissue shelves looked decimated, but everything else was plentiful. Most of the shoppers seemed to be doing pick-up/fill-in shopping. I saw no overflowing carts. There was absolutely zero buzz and no one seemed the least bit stressed.
One of the other threads had this early thread linked. I thought it was still a good read the second time around. Oh - to look back two years ago (wait - only two months ago!?) and to think how we were doing are little bit to prepare for what might happen, but at least for me, thinking “Well - if it isn’t so bad, then I’ll be glad for that.”
And now here I am living with the new protocols for grocery shopping, coming into the house, etc.
But, as I’ve said before, all of this is not so unimaginable. Also interesting is how 11th_VA picked up on how this virus will be used for political gain.
You did get one thing a bit wrong in your vanity:
“Worst-case probability is that you are going to have your school or place of business shut down for a couple of weeks.”
I’m hopeful that people will be wise as we reopen things. Getting the manufacturing and construction back up and running and restaurants, etc. in a safe manner. Not for hitting the night clubs with 300 of your closest friends.
Thanks for all of the information you’ve been putting together over the past couple of months!
“In my area we get blizzards. Everyone has enough back up stuff to live through a blizzard. This would be twice that. That is my expectation. “
Great advice.
I didn’t stock up because I was already stocked up for 3-4 weeks of stuff.
That saves me 10 or 20% of my food, etc bill because I can buy on sale- or not buy.
And we’ll get through this all. Just be smart.
Just seen the date...
Worth a bump, anywsy.
“Not a doctor” is part of the creds.
Buy meat.
Shopping report from my area. No chicken no meats. Got some cube steak and ribs. Have not tapped in to my store yet. Gonna keep buying for the week until that dont work no more. No cereal, no salad. Prices rising.
Indeed worth a bump.
Harumpph
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