Posted on 02/26/2020 6:49:38 AM PST by Yo-Yo
Reposted from the Fabius Maximus Blog
By Larry Kummer, Editor / 25 February 2020
Summary: Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty. I see comment threads in which misinformation makes most readers know less than when they started. Meanwhile, this blockbuster good news from China is lost amidst the chaff.
First, a status report
From WHO’s February 24 situation report.
Outside China, there are 29 nations infected (1 new, 6 since Feb 3). There are 1,374 cases (261 new, 1,221 since February 3). This does not include the 695 infected and then quarantined on the Diamond Princess.
Blockbuster news from China
Here are excerpts from remarks by Tedros Adhanom, Director-General of WHO, at the February 24 media briefing. This is important news – contradicting guesses by the doomsters.
“We’re encouraged by the continued decline in cases in China.. …They found that the epidemic peaked and plateaued between the 23rd of January and the 2nd of February, and has been declining steadily since then.
That is good news, and not just for China. With no preparation and relatively primitive public health networks (compared to those of developed nations), the epidemic stabilized in roughly four weeks – probably due to China’s fast and large quarantines. That is good news, because other nations are relying on quarantines to contain the infection.
Also, this suggests that the doomsters’ predictions that the epidemic would prove uncontrollable in China – sweepting through to its four corners – are wrong. China’s 77 thousand cases sounds like a large number, but it is a small fraction of China’s 1.4 billion people. That is true even if the true number infected is twice as large, or even (implausibly) five times as large.
“They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan.”
The fatality rate in the developed nations will certainly be lower than that in China outside Wuhan (medical facilities in Wuhan are overwhelmed), although the estimate of a 0.7% fatality rate might be wrong. Original estimates were over 2% (e.g., here). If proven correct, this is great news.
“They found that for people with mild disease, recovery time is about two weeks, while people with severe or critical disease recover within three to six weeks.”
That is also important news, as the length of time required for treatment of critical cases determines how quickly an epidemic overloads the hospital facilities of a region.
The Director gives the bottom line about the status of the epidemic: it is not a pandemic, yet.
“The sudden increases of cases in Italy, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Korea are deeply concerning. There’s a lot of speculation about whether these increases mean that this epidemic has now become a pandemic. We understand why people ask that question.
“WHO has already declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern – our highest level of alarm – {on January 30} when there were less than 100 cases outside China, and 8 cases of human-to-human transmission.
“Our decision about whether to use the word “pandemic” to describe an epidemic is based on an ongoing assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole of society.
“For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death. Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely, it has. Are we there yet? From our assessment, not yet.”
See the WHO website for details about the meaning of “pandemic” (here and here).
The doomsters spread panic
The doomsters are multiplying faster than those infected with the diesase, spreading misinformation. They use graphs showing rapid growth in the small numbers of infected to make this seem like a major pandemic outside China. It’s not, at least yet.
They make bold statements about COVID-19 not justified by currrent research, especially comparing it to the flu. Most importantly, they assume developed nations will have the same rates of spread & mortality as China – despite our vastly better medical infrastructure.
Making this much worse is the same dynamic seen in the climate change debate: experts seeking their 15 minutes of fame by making statements (often quite wild) that are outside of the consensus, without mentioning that. In the early stages of the epidemic, there was pushback to this by other experts. Now, as in climate science, the pushback has stopped – encouaging more experts to fuel the hysteria for their own gain.
What next?
Epidemics are like wars in another respect: their outcomes are difficult to predict. But whatever happens, this is – as I said on January 25 – a historical milestone. The combination of global organization and high tech has allowed preparations during the past 54 days of an unprecedented speed and scale. Without these, by now we might be in the midst of a devastating global pandemic. This is progress.
But as usual, Trump wants to reduce our defenses to anything other than war. In the midst of the Coronavirus epidemic, President Trump proposed cutting funding to the World Health Organization by 53% and to the Pan American Health Organization by 75%. Madness.
It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story
The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public.
* There is their daily situation report, with detailed numbers.
* The Director-General of WHO gives frequent briefings, which are quite insightful.
* Their daily press briefings have more information. An audio goes up quickly afterwards. A transcript is posted the next day.
Posts about the coronavirus pandemic.
* The 2019-nCoV virus shows that we’ve built a better world.
* Hidden news about the epidemic sweeping across America! – How fake news drives out good news.
* Amazing but hidden news about coronavirus – Update about the epidemic, and why so few know the good news.
* Lessons from the coronavirus about climate change.
* Cut thru myths to see facts about COVID-19.
There are many, many embedded hyperlinks in the original post that I am too lazy to recreate here. I suggest you go to the original post to visit them if you are interested.
The WHO pimping and Trump bashing really undermines the credibility of the writer.
Trust but verify. ;-)
WHO is corrupt, why quote them? Fake news
Nonsense. This is Chinese originated propaganda. The article accepts the data being released by China is accurate and complete. China has still not allowed foreign, non vested experts into China to study what is happening first hand. They are still hiding facts.
WHO is not only corrupt, but one of the biggest likely corrupters at the moment is the Chicom government.
Cutting fifty percent or so from any government or quasi government organization is a good thing. Their payrolls are padded with do-nothing cronies on lavish expense accounts and their activity schedules are full of blatant political activity. Any actual good they do can still be accomplished with half their current budget, if they go to work.
If you watched Tucker last night you’ll give no credibility to anything Tedros says or anything coming from WHO.
Blockbuster unverified news from ...
And China's officially reported numbers are crap.
I try not to worry about things I can’t do anything about.
What’s for lunch?
You want the best measure of what’s going on in China?
Watch what’s shipping out of China.
What’s for lunch?
Philly cheese steak on a salt rising bread roll toasted to perfection at (the last call bar) in Shongo NY.
Who believes WHO?
Who believes WHO?
not much these days
Yum!
Not proven. But studies of the cheap, well studied, and readily available compound are under way in China, with patients getting 400 milligrams a day for five days.
That is good news, and not just for China. With no preparation and relatively primitive public health networks (compared to those of developed nations), the epidemic stabilized in roughly four weeks – probably due to China’s fast and large quarantines. That is good news, because other nations are relying on quarantines to contain the infection.
...
The rapid sequencing of the viral genome, and development of a lab test by the USA was a big factor in measures to fight the spread of the virus.
The fatality rate in the developed nations will certainly be lower than that in China outside Wuhan (medical facilities in Wuhan are overwhelmed), although the estimate of a 0.7% fatality rate might be wrong. Original estimates were over 2% (e.g., here). If proven correct, this is great news.
...
You mean the simple math calculations of FR’s disease experts aren’t correct?
They’re on first
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.