Unless the mortality rate comes up a lot I just cant all that scared of this virus. The regular flu has much higher kill rate.
As of last week, not a single death reported in westernized nation....all of the deaths were noted in China or third-world countries. Even that one American who died...he was in China.
Their economy is shutting down. That doesn’t happen with routine flu. Hard indicators free of CCP propaganda such as reduced coal usage, lower pollution (except increased S02 discharges from Wuhan area), less traffic in Beijing and Shanghai on Tom Tom.
“Unless the mortality rate comes up a lot I just cant all that scared of this virus. The regular flu has much higher kill rate.”
Where are you getting your data?
The “regular flu” has a mortality rate of 0.1%. The Wuhanic Plague has a mortality rate of more than 16% for all resolved cases. 2% for everywhere but Wuhan, and over 25% for Wuhan (where the medical system has been overwhelmed). And that’s based on the CCP’s obviously fudged numbers intended to understate the problem. There is empirical evidence that there are many, many more deaths.
This is NOT the flu.
You’re assuming that everyone who currently has the virus will recover. But if you consider the number of cases where the virus has run its course (i.e., the patient has either recovered or died), the “kill” rate is far higher, currently 16.2%. At least in China, where the healthcare system is apparently overwhelmed.
And you’re ignoring any possible long term effect of damage to the lungs it may cause. Of course, there hasn’t been enough time to evaluate that, but it’s a possibility. I know my grandfather had weak lungs for the rest of his life after contracting the Spanish Flu.
A Harvard professor of Public Health believes up to 70% of the world’s population could be infected before it’s all over. Other projections range from a “mere” 500,000 to 4.4 million. Which all means “we really just don’t know.”
But three things are for sure... 1) The Chinese are taking draconian measures to stop it, 2) the Chinese government lies like a cheap rug, and 3) knowing what they know (and haven’t told to the rest of the world), they’re panicking.
I don’t think it’s time for us to panic here in the USA, but it is foolish to be complacent about it because you think “the regular flu has a much higher kill rate.”
“Unless the mortality rate comes up a lot I just cant all that scared of this virus. The regular flu has much higher kill rate.”
The “regular flu” has approximately a 0.1% mortality rate for ALL people infected. Keep in mind that most infected never go to a doctor, much less a hospital - they handle it on their own with sleep, vitamins, OTC meds, etc. That is a measure of how non-lethal it is (at least among those younger and healthier). Of those who go to the hospital (in which case you are already pretty sick), the mortality rate is about 10%.
The Wuhan virus is about 2.5% lethal IF, IF, IF you:
a) believe that the Chinese even know themselves (because not everyone sick has been tested, and they don’t test people who already died); and
b) believe that the Chinese are telling us whatever they know to be the truth (and I don’t think that anyone believes that); and
c) calculate the death rate by the very simple method of reported deaths/reported cases. That’s a fine method if the outbreak is OVER. But it is utterly unrealistic (i.e. it understates the death rate) while the outbreak is still ongoing, because the disease doesn’t kill people instantaneously. It takes at least many days, and likely several weeks. So people reported as newly infected on Monday of this week will have an extremely low death rate right now (Friday afternoon); Wait a week or two and look at those EXACT same people, and the death rate will assuredly be higher.
That all said, even if you assume that the 2.5% figure is correct (which I don’t, but this is an assumption), that is STILL 25 times higher of a mortality rate than the “regular flu.” NOT less lethal - MORE lethal, by a LOT.
I think you might be missing an important aspect of this:
This virus is much more contagious. Nearly twice as many people are hospitalized. About 1/5 of them need ICU treatment, including ventilation and breathing apparatus.
No, you probably won’t die from this. But if you need any type of medical treatment during this, you are shit out of luck. The system will be overwhelmed. Take a stroll around a hospital now—in the middle of flu season. There are no available beds. Add a few hundred people to every facility.
The truck drivers that bring your food won’t be driving around. People will shut down shops, stores, and factories. Schools would close. The economy will simply stop.
I guess you can go out with a mask—but those have not been available since the middle of January.
There is a lot more about this which should generate some concern. Note: I am not saying panic. I am saying you should be thinking about what steps you might take if this breaks out in the US. But, be sure everyone else will be thinking the same thing at the same time.
No the flu does not have a higher mortality rate. Right now ( if you believe the Chinese numbers) Corona has a 3% mortality rate.
The flu typically has 0.2%
Will you worry when half the people in NYC try to get out?
Unless the mortality rate comes up a lot
With respect, I consider myself schooled by this thread. From what I do understand about the incubation period we will certainly know within a couple of weeks how bad this bug will hit us.