I’ll post a 2020 review of my initial concerns later today
Wuhan Virus -
WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan warns about the coronavirus vaccine, saying that there is “no evidence to be confident shots prevent transmission” and that people who receive the vaccine should continue wearing masks and following all social distancing and travel guidelines. “I don’t believe we have the evidence on any of the vaccines to be confident that it’s going to prevent people from actually getting the infection and therefore being able to pass it on.” This just begs the question - what good is the ‘vaccine’ then in the first place.
Economy -
Appeals court allows L.A. County dining ban to remain in place until at least February. This will certainly kill many more businesses and add to the So Cal economic meltdown.
After the House passed a clean $2000 amendment to porkulus, McConnell objected in the senate. McConnell wants to include two complaints the President made concerning Porkulus, lack of an investigation into election fraud and reworking laws that protect social media like twitter, FB, etc (Section 230) from lawsuits. McConnell is expected to released a new bill today to incorporate those items into the increased individual relief package.
Home prices increased the most in October at the fastest rate in six years. Probably driven by very low interest rates but there has also been a big demand from people leaving Kalifornia and the rest of the left coast, buying property often sight unseen and bidding wars jacking prices up. Thats what is being observed here in the American Redoubt anyway.
2020 Election-
Key dates - House of Representatives officially counts electoral votes on Jan. 6. Inauguration is Jan 20.
Election observers are predicting an extended period before either of the Georgia senate runoffs are determined.
CW2/Civil Disturbances -
We are in the calm before a potential storm.
Violence is still high in Portland, due mostly to the decrease in the police force and the release of criminals from prison and the lack of prosecution of those arrested. The riots have decimated the police department and the city leadership have only made matters worse.
Monitors of far left chat rooms note two items. 1 - Leftists are being urged to avoid direct, armed conflict, given their analysis of US counterinsurgency operational doctrines. They are encouraging each other to use other means of violence such as intimidation, assassinations, bombings, etc. 2 - The leftists are also looking to redefine themselves as revolutionaries and not protestors. The context being their ultimate goal of removing the US government no matter which party is in charge. This indicates unrest will continue even in the event of a Biden administration.
Strategic Developments /Deployments-
B52 bombers made a fly by of the Persian Gulf today. These fly byes have been very common this month and are likely a warning to Iran as the anniversary of Soleimani death approaches.
Terror -
It is being reported that 16 months ago, the Nashville bomber’s girlfriend reported to police that Warner was constructing bombs in the RV.
The FBI and local police are investigating what they say appears to be an “intentional attack” on the town’s gas service lines, Aspen Times reported. Officials discovered vandalism at three different gas line sites, in which environmental group messaging was found written on the pipes. The words “Earth First!” were found written on the vandalized gas pipes. Radical environmentalists have joined forces with leftist BLM/Antifa elements thru shared common causes.
China -
Chinese court jails 10 Hong Kong pro-democracy activists for up to three years. The combination of wuhan lockdowns in HK plus aggressive new laws passed in the absence of significant protests (due to wuhan) have pretty much put the final nails in the coffin of a free HK.
Beijing ratified an extradition treaty with Turkey that permits them to get their hands on Uyghur activists that have taken refuge in Turkey. Turkey has yet to ratify the treaty.
Iran -
Date to remember, January 3d - anniversary of the death of Soleimani.
Iran’s Zafar 2 satellite has been completed and is ready for launch. However, commercial satellite imagery does not not yet show the usual signatures associated with an imminent launch. Zafar 1 failed in February to reach orbit. This is basically a step in developing an ICBM under the guise of a satellite.
Saudi Arabia -
(Reuters) -The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of 3,000 precision guided munitions to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in a deal valued at up to $290 million, the Pentagon said on Tuesday. The package would include 3,000 GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb I (SDB I) munitions, containers, support equipment, spares and technical support. These munitions will increase Saudi effectiveness against Houti and serve as a deterrent against Iran. Biden has pledged to halt arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
Yemen -
Unknown forces (probably Houthi) attacked the Aden Airport with rockets/mortars (some claim drones) after a plane carrying Yemeni government ministers arrived at the terminal. As many as 10 reported dead, many injured. One minister was reportedly killed, however the airliner was not directly hit. Besides the airliner, the air port lounge was also reportedly targeted.
MY OBSERVATION - It was reported that the plane was carrying the newly formed Yemen government - this looks like an attempted decapitation attack. Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war since late 2014 mainly between the Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi-led Yemeni government and the Houthi armed movement, along with their supporters and allies.
Year end review - here were my priorities that I was monitoring at the start of this year becoming a dumpster fire. Such was the fluidity of the year.
Priority 1.
1a - Iran. Huge potential for a regional war with US, Israel or (more likely) both.
RESULT - War didn’t happen but it was a close thing. Year started with a bang with the assassination of IGRC General Soleimani, with a lame Iranian retaliatory strike in response. Sanctions and blockades have kept the Iranian economy in shambles, greatly limiting the mischief they are able to do in the region.
1b - Election turmoil - Democrats/leftists have openly threatened violence in response to the president and other conservative/republicans. Still hanging are -
- Impeachment resolution _
RESULT - House impeached trump, Senate held its ‘trial’ and acquitted him.
- Barr/Durham investigation of the deep state -
RESULT - a big nothing burger
- Black swans / red flags - The Wuhan virus took this category. Associated economic shutdown and fiat decrees by local and state officials crashed the market and many businesses closed permanently. Democrats weaponized the disease via their shutdown orders - effectively conditioning the sheeple into compliance with ‘laws’ not issued by the respective legislative branch.
1c - Israel vs Hamas/Hezzbollah - this may take off based on Iran or separately. Hamas is currently attempting to put the lid down on some of the protests to gain some concessions from Israel. But there are enough wild cards in the mix to cause concern.
RESULT - Israel bombed at will Hezebollah / Iranian munition dumps in Syria. This resulted in increased financial strain on Iran and Hezbollah which lost men as well. Their goals were thwarted throughout the year.
Priority 2
2a - North Korea- Right now it seems Kim is resuming rhetoric and later strategic weapons testing. The high council meetings that just ended indicate there is still a window of potential negotiations available
RESULT - Apart from a surprise rocket display in a recent military parade, Kim has laid low, even disappearing for a while.
2b - Virginia Gun Grab. Any laws passed will take effect in July UNLESS the legislature passes them with 80% of vote for an urgent matter. This will simmer, but has potential for Bundy Ranch scenarios.
RESULT - overwhelmed by wuhan and election issues.
2c - Hong Kong - Protests continue, but violence level has dropped significantly since their elections. I would expect China to play long game on this
RESULT - China essentially invalidated HK freedoms assisted by lockdowns due to wuhan
2d - Mexico / illegals - The construction of the fence and enforcement of law has made an impact, how the narco-terrorists respond is to be seen
RESULTS - the construction of the fence, along with border shutdown and improved enforcement (no more catch and release) dramatically decreased illegal . However, with the prospect of a biden administration and amnesty numbers have shot up again.
2e - Blue area meltdown - partially associated with 2020 elections, homelessness, budgets in the deep red, and continued travel down the cesspool of progressivism make things unstable.
RESULTS - the Floyd riots and the uprising of BLM/Antifa have made things worse in many major cities. Though things have quieted down to a low simmer, the brown shirts of the left have been working to improve their logistical support and up-gunning elements.
Priority 3
3a - Middle east conflicts - these include Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Turkish involvement. Turkey may get a higher priority view depending upon their actions in Syria, Libya and Cyprus
RESULTS - Turkey was the biggest player in the ME and Eastern Mediterranean, pushing its involvement in Libya, Syria and the Caucuses. It is pulling away from NATO loyalty to establish itself as the power in the region. Much of its efforts in the ME are to establish control over the extraction and delivery of oil and gas.
Syria had some close runs when Turkey pushed into the northern part of the country to create a buffer zone. Turkish support also blunted Syrian efforts to recapture Idlib Provence. It was in Idlib that Turkish drone strategy was honed, to be later copied in the Armenian/Azeri conflict in support of the Azeri forces.
3b - Natural disasters - can’t predict but there are some biggies on the horizon that can hit at any moment.
RESULTS - Record year for named Tropical/Hurricanes, but those impacts were buried by riots and election issues. Globally, intense flooding in China and massive locust infestations in Africa and central Asia have damaged food supplies.
Before the end of the year, I’ll post my intelligence priorities for 2021 - and it looks pretty dark, making this year look tame.